The following graphic, from The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool (“a collaborative project led by Prof. Joshua Weitz and Prof. Clio Andris at the Georgia Institute of Technology, along with researchers at the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory and Stanford University, and powered by RStudio”), shows the “risk level of attending an event, given the event size and location” in Virginia. To be exact, this is “The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.”
As you can see from the three maps, the COVID-19 risk in general is much lower for a 50-person event than 100-person or 500-person event. For instance, the risk level in Fairfax County is 96% for a 500-person event; 47% for a 100-person event; and just 28% for a 50-person event. In Lee County, the risk level is higher at all event-size levels — 80% at a 50-person event; 96% at a 100-person event; and >99% at a 500-person event. It’s interesting, and also shows why big political rallies – such as Trump held in Newport News in late September, or such as State Sen. Amanda Chase (R) has been holding all over Virginia. That’s pretty much why they’re called “superspreader” events and should be avoided at all costs.