Home 2021 Elections Gov, LG, AG, Virginia House of Delegates Primary Predictions by Chaz Nuttycombe,...

Gov, LG, AG, Virginia House of Delegates Primary Predictions by Chaz Nuttycombe, Ben Tribbett, Matt Colt Hall, Former Del. Chris Saxman and Blue Virginia


See below for some predictions – by former Republican Del. Chris Saxman (on his Substack blog “The Intersection”); as well as Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett, elections analyst Chaz Nuttycombe and Republican operative Matt Colt Hall (from this podcast by Chaz/Cnalysis). I’ll put my thoughts/predictions on each one as well…

  • GOVERNOR: Everyone agrees Terry McAuliffe is going to win this one by a big margin, the only question being who finishes second, third, etc.
  • LT. GOVERNOR: Chaz Nuttycombe, Ben Tribbett and former Del. Chris Saxman all agree that Sam Rasoul has the edge – albeit not a large edge – heading into primary day, with Hala Ayala his main competitor. Prior to this morning’s new Roanoke College poll, I would have agreed, but after the poll showed Ayala ahead of Rasoul 16%-11%, I’m going with “slight-lean Ayala” on this one.
  • ATTORNEY GENERAL: Everyone – even Saxman, who has been talking for months of a possible Jay Jones win here – now thinks Mark Herring’s got this one pretty much locked up (“heavy favorite,” “Herring should win comfortably”, etc.). I agree, certainly after this morning’s Roanoke College poll had Herring up 50%-20%.
  • HD2: Chaz Nuttycombe says it slightly leans towards Del. Candi King; Ben Tribbett thinks Del. King will hang on because voters won’t want to immediately replace the incumbent, who in this case was just elected in December 2020. For his part, I agree with Chaz and Ben, and disagree with Chris Saxman that Montgomery “has the edge.” In the end, despite massive amounts of money spent on behalf of Pamela Montgomery by Clean Virginia and its allies, I’d be surprised if Del. King lost…and by the way, I don’t think that she *should* lose, either!
  • HD9: Matt Colt Hall thinks that Wren Williams (R) will defeat Del. Charles Poindexter (R), while Saxman thinks that Poindexter has the advantage. I’m going to agree with Hall on this one, given everything he said on the podcast about the campaigns the two candidates have run (and also what Ben said about Poindexter not being popular), as well as the fact that Williams is a hardcore Trumpist – propagating the Big Lie, you name it – which, sad to say, is a better fit for the core Trump GOP(Q) “base” these days than simply a conservative Republican like Poindexter. Sad.
  • HD22: Everyone agrees this is safe for Del. Kathy Byron (R).
  • HD24: Everyone agrees that this is safe for Del. Ronnie Campbell (R).
  • HD31: Saxman thinks Del. Elizabeth Guzman (D) will win this race against her main Democratic rival, Rod Hall. Ben and Chaz also think Guzman will win. I agree – Guzman is likely to win this one, probably easily.
  • HD34: Chaz thinks that Del. Kathleen Murphy will defeat her Democratic challenger, Jennifer Adeli. Ben thinks Murphy will “win in a landslide.” Saxman thinks Murphy will win easily. I agree – Del. Murphy will win, if not in a landslide, then by a solid margin.
  • HD36: Everyone agrees that Del. Ken Plum will easily defeat his Democratic challenger, Mary Barthelson.
  • HD38: Chaz thinks that Del. Kaye Kory is likely to hold her seat against Democratic challenger Holly Hazard. Ben agrees, also discloses that his firm is doing work for Kory. Saxman thinks that Kory will win, although “an upset would not surprise.” I’m thinking Del. Kory will win this one.
  • HD45: Saxman thinks that Del. Mark Levine could lose to Democratic challenge Elizabeth Bennett-Parker. Chaz thinks Bennett-Parker is a “heavy favorite” to win. Ben thinks Bennett-Parker is the “narrow favorite” because Levine “is so weak” and that voters “don’t like Levine.” Hall thinks Levine will lose. I’d call this one slight lean to Bennett-Parker.
  • HD49: Chaz says Del. Alfonso Lopez is the “heavy favorite” against democratic socialist challenger Karishma Mehta. Saxman hesitates to handicap this one. Ben says Lopez is the favorite. I’d say Del. Lopez will win this one easily, the only question is how big the margin will be (70%-30%?).
  • HD50: Saxman thinks that Del. Lee Carter could lose to his main Democratic challenger, Michelle Maldonado. Chaz thinks that Del. Carter is “pretty heavily favored.” Ben calls it a “toss-up.” I agree with Ben – this one’s a toss-up.
  • HD51: In the Republican primary between Jeff Dove and Tim Cox, former Del. Saxman thinks Dove probably has the slight lead. Chaz agrees, and Ben thinks Dove will win.  I have no particular reason to disagree with Saxman, Chaz and Ben on this one.
  • HD66: Saxman thinks that Democrat Katie Sponsler will probably beat Democrat Linnard Harris. Chaz thinks Sponsler is the “heavy favorite…the only serious candidate in this race.” Ben thinks Sponsler will win “in a landslide.” I agree – Sponsler should win this primary easily.
  • HD68: Saxman thinks it’s possible that Democratic challenger Kyle Elliott will beat Del. Dawn Adams (D). Ben says this is a “tough one,” but in the end that Adams will win. I’d give a slight edge to Adams in this one, but would not at all be surprised if Elliott beat her.
  • HD68: In the Republican primary between Mike Dickinson and Mark Earley, Jr., former Del. Saxman thinks Earley will win, as do Chaz Nuttycombe and Matt Colt Hall. I agree.
  • HD71: Everyone agrees that Del. Jeff Bourne will defeat his Democratic challenger, Richard Walker, easily. I agree 100%.
  • HD72: Former Del. Saxman thinks that Republican Christopher Holmes will defeat Tom Gardner. I have no idea on this one.
  • HD74: Everyone agrees that Del. Lamont Bagby will defeat his Democratic challenger, John Dantzler, easily. I agree 100%.
  • HD79: Former Del. Saxman thinks this will be an upset win by Democratic challenger, Nadarius Clark, against Del. Steve Heretick. Ben discloses that his firm has been doing work for Clark; adds that he thinks Clark will win because of Heretick being under investigation for “racketeering and fraud.” Chaz says he wouldn’t be surprised if Clark won, but it will be a very close race. I agree with Chaz that this one as a tossup – wouldn’t surprise me either way.
  • HD83: Chaz thinks this Republican primary leans towards Chris Stolle. Hall thinks it’s a “very slight tilt to Stolle” over Tim Anderson. Also, Stolle says there’s another candidate, Phil Kazmierczak, who could split the anti-Stolle vote. I agree with Hall’s analysis here.
  • HD84: Chaz says it’s about even between Democrats Tracie Liguid and Kim Melnyk. Ben thinks it leans to Melnyk because of her late financial support from Sonja Smith. Saxman thinks Melnyk will probably win.  I agree…Melnyk’s the slight favorite in this one.
  • HD86: Chaz thinks that Del. Ibraheem Samirah is “definitely vulnerable” but “is favored” over Democratic challenger Irene Shin. Ben says it’s a “very competitive primary,” thinks Samirah has “self-inflicted” wounds, while Shin “has not been as strong a challenger as she could have been,” and that “she could win because Ibraheem is that weak, but she hasn’t put it away even though she could have,” so probably Samirah by a narrow margin. Saxman says his money’s on Shin. I’d go with “toss-up” for this one.
  • HD89: Clearly, Del. Jay Jones will win this easily over Democratic challenger Hannah Kinder.
  • HD99:  Everyone agrees that Democrat Linwood Blizzard will win this one over Democrats Jolicia Ward and Zach Filtz. 



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