Early on this afternoon before Virginia Democrats head to the polls to select their statewide and House of Delegates nominees, Chaz Nuttycombe of CNalysis talked to PredictIt about where things stands. See below for video of the conversation, highlights, as well as the current PredictIt prices (McAuliffe the overwhelming favorite for governor, at 99 cents; Sam Rasoul the favorite for LG, at 57 cents, followed by Hala Ayala at 30 cents and Mark Levine at 7 cents; Mark Herring at 99 cents in the AG race). The focus of the conversation is the LG race, since the governor’s and AG races are basically blowouts on PredictIt, ergo not particularly interesting to the prediction market at the moment…
- According to Chaz, there was a lot of reaction to the Roanoke College poll that came out on Friday, but he’s a little bit “iffy” on it, due to the high percentage of undecideds in that poll for Lt. Governor.
- Chaz thinks turnout will “drop like a rock” compared to the 550k or so in 2017. We’ll see on that one; I think it will probably drop a bit, but not sure about the “like a rock” part. 😉
- Chaz thinks Sam Rasoul remains the “slight favorite” with “room for a Hala Ayala upset” (she’d have to “run the table in Hampton Roads”), while Sean Perryman is “undervalued” and Mark Levine is overvalued. Chaz thinks Levine will be towards the “bottom of the pack,” maybe “second to last.” Chaz thinks that Sam will dominate western Virginia, plus should do well in Northern Virginia due to the WaPo endorsement.
- Chaz notes that CNalysis is collaborating with Decision Desk HQ for primary night reporting. I’ll definitely be checking that out, along with the results from the Department of Elections and VPAP, in my own live blog of the primary night results.