Home 2021 Elections Two New Virginia Election Polls – by Public Policy Polling and Kellyanne...

Two New Virginia Election Polls – by Public Policy Polling and Kellyanne Conway – Show McAuliffe Up by 3, 4 Pts; Ayala and Herring Way Up

The polls also find that police are VERY popular; vaccine requirements popular; "Critical Race Theory" and "Defund the Police" VERY unpopular


After a long period or hardly any polls on the Virginia governor’s race, things seem to be picking up of late. In the past few days, for instance, we’ve had polls released by the WaPo/Schar School (Terry McAuliffe up 6 points among RVs, 3 points among LVs), Emerson College (McAuliffe up 4 points) and a weird one by VCU (McAuliffe up 9 points). Today, we’ve got two more polls – one “for the Presidential Coalition by Kellyanne Conway, a former senior adviser to former President Donald Trump”; and one by Public Policy Polling (a Democratic-leaning but highly respected poll, with an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.com). Here are the main findings:

  • The poll by Kellyanne Conway (I know, I know…gack!) has Terry McAuliffe up 4 points, 46%-42%, over Glenn Youngkin. 
  • The Conway poll also has VA Dem Lt. Gov. nominee Hala Ayala up 10 (!) points (34%-24%) over Republican Winsome Sears, but with a huge percentage (38%) of “hard undecided/don’t know.” I mean, let’s HOPE that Ayala’s up 10 points (or more) over the far-right Sears, but that large undecided % is a concern.
  • As for the AG race, the Conway poll has VA Dem AG nominee Mark Herring up a massive 16 points (!!!) over Republican AG nominee Jason Miyares, with 29% “hard undecided/don’t know.”  Again, let’s hope this is accurate, because Miyares would be a disaster as AG, and Mark Herring is superb.
  • In the Conway poll, 72% of Virginia voters say they’d be LESS LIKELY to support a candidate who favors “defunding the police” (note: no Virginia Democratic statewide candidate supports that in any way/shape/form).  Also, by a massive 87%-8% margin, Virginia voters have a FAVORABLE view of police/law enforcement. And voters by more than 2:1 oppose having “Critical Race Theory” (which this poll identifies, in a very biased manner, as “a movement that argues that the United States is inherently racist and that current laws contribute to racism”; also note that “Critical Race Theory” is NOT taught in Virginia public schools).
  • Also in the Conway poll, Terry McAuliffe has a 48%-41% (+7 points) favorable rating, and Glenn Youngkin has a 45%-39% (+6 points) favorable rating. Not much difference, really.
  • The Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll finds that “McAuliffe currently leads Youngkin by a 3-point margin (45-42), with 13% of voters undecided.”
  • Also from PPP: “A plurality of voters support President Biden, with 47% approving of his job performance and 46% disapproving. 7% are undecided.”
  • On the topic of COVID-19 vaccines, from PPP: “58% of voters support requiring teachers and eligible students to receive a COVID19 vaccine, while just 35% are opposed”; “56% support employers requiring employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, while only 37% are opposed”; “56% support mandates that require people to get vaccinated unless they have an exception for health reasons”; “A plurality of voters (46%) also say they trust Governor McAuliffe more when it comes to vaccine policies than his Republican opponent Glenn Youngkin (38%). A further 53% say they agree more that McAuliffe is right to support Biden’s vaccine mandates for large employers and federal employees so he can combat the pandemic. Only 43% say they agree more that Youngkin is right to oppose Biden’s vaccine mandates and leave it up to individuals to decide.

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