New Poll in VA02, an R+6 District, Finds Rep. Elaine Luria (D) Up 5 Pts. Before Pro-Choice Messaging, Up 7 Pts. After

There’s an interesting new poll by pro-Democratic firm Slingshot Strategies of Virginia Beach-centered VA02, represented by Rep. Elaine Luria (D), but redistricted in a way that made it R+6, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. The poll was conducted April 10-15, a couple weeks before the blockbuster news about the Supreme Court likely overturning Roe v Wade broke. See below for screenshots and takeaways:

• Rep. Elaine Luria (D) starts off with 5-point leads over either of her two most likely Republican opponents, Jarome Bell and Jennifer Kiggans, although a lot of voters are undecided at this point. This is somewhat encouraging, given that the district is now R+6. However, also note that the “generic” ballot question finds that 42% would vote for the Republican candidate and 40% for the Democratic candidate.

• On abortion, voters in this R+6 district want abortion kept legal in all/most cases by a wide margin (59%-34%). In cases of rape, incest, abuse or health risk to the mother, that percentage balloons to a massive 83%-10% majority who want abortion to remain legal. Again, this is in a Republican-leaning district.

• Also in this R+6 district, 42% say their views are “pro-choice,” compared to 27% who say “pro-life.” Only 21% agree that “abortion is wrong and should be illegal,” while 74% believe it should NOT BE ILLEGAL, even if they are personally against it.

• Abortion is a very important issue in this district, with 76% saying it’s either “very important” or “somewhat important,” and only 4% saying it’s “not important at all” (another 18% say it’s “not very important.” Interestingly, 43% say they COULD vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on abortion, with 32% saying they could NOT do so.

• 39% of VA02 voters believe that government should make it EASIER to access abortions, with 31% wanting government to make it HARDER, and 17% not wanting government to change the way it approaches abortion. As for overturning Roe v Wade, VA02 voters oppose that by a 54%-28% margin.

• Prompted by the prospect of the Supreme Court overturning Roe, and state/federal lawmakers writing new laws about abortion, 65% say that would make them MORE LIKELY to vote, with 47% saying “much more likely to vote.”

• Prompted by the prospect of Virginia Republicans pushing a bill to ban abortions after 20 weeks and punish doctors who provide abortions, 69% of VA02 voters say that would make them MORE LIKELY to vote in the midterm elections, with just 19% saying it would NOT make them more likely to vote in the midterms.

• In terms of messaging, VA02 voters find various pro-choice messages to be highly convincing, ranging up to 70% for the message, “Government has no business interfering in our personal health care decisions. Just like we don’t let the government tell us how much insulin we should take, or if a surgery is right for us, politicians with their own agendas should not be dictating private health care procedures like abortion. Those decisions should be left to  patients, families, and doctors.”

• Now, here’s the “Horserace Retest,” after asking all the previous questions. As you can see, it moves the race from Rep. Elaine Luria (D) up 5 points over either of her two most likely Republican opponents, Jarome Bell and Elaine Kiggans, to 7 point over either of them.