And with that, VA02 is going to see a MASSIVE downgrade in its representation in the US House.
UPDATE 9:20 pm: Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett calls VA07 for Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) – “Abigail Spanberger (D) has been re-elected to Virginia’s 7th District.” Phew!
UPDATE 9:05 pm: Congrats to new Loudoun County School Board member Erika Ogedegbe in Leesburg District! Meanwhile, in Broad Run District, Republican Tiffany Polifko leads Democrat Nicholas Gothard 6,325-6,163 votes, with 5,723 early votes (which should skew strongly Democratic) remaining.
UPDATE 9:01 pm: With 88.3% of Election Day precincts and 58.1% of early votes reporting, Rep. Jennifer Wexton now leads 52.97%-46.97% over Republican Hung Cao. There are another 41k early votes left, which should pad Wexton’s lead significantly.
UPDATE 8:59 pm: Per Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett – “Spanberger has no way with the math to lead until Prince William County early vote comes in so we are just waiting on that. I think she’s in a much stronger position then Vega at this point but can’t call without seeing at least some of that.”
UPDATE 8:54 pm: Per Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett – “Only locality with early votes in for VA2 is Suffolk. Luria winning eday by 2 points, early vote by 29 points and mail by 52 points. Virginia Beach has Kiggans by 12 so far on eday with No early vote in. This one will tighten up for sure.”
UPDATE 8:51 pm: With 88.6% of E-Day precincts and 66.3% of early votes reporting, Republican Yesli Vega’s lead over Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) is now down to 7,385 votes. There are about 30k early votes, which should skew strongly “blue,” outstanding, plus 18 precincts in “blue”-leaning Prince William County.
UPDATE 8:36 pm: With 86.5% of Election Day precincts and 39.8% of early votes reporting, it’s now Republican Yesli Vega by 11,499 votes (52.9%-46.9%) over Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07). About 49k early votes, which should skew strongly “blue,” are outstanding, plus 18 precincts in Prince William County, which also should help Spanberger. As Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett tweets, “Too early to call but with what is outstanding I would much rather be Abigail Spanberger than Yesli Vega.”
UPDATE 8:21 pm: Per Sam Shirazi, this is good news for Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) – “Spanberger wins Orange early in-person and blows out mail ballot Vega did well on Election Day, but Spanberger crushed it in the early vote. Orange County is done except Provisionals in VA-7 Biden got 38.5% in 2020 Spanberger got 39.5% tonight”
UPDATE 8:16 pm: In Arlington, Democratic incumbent County Board member Matt de Ferranti is cruising to an easy reelection win; with 38/54 precincts reporting, but with 29,132 early votes (which will skew heavily “blue”) outstanding, he’s leading 60.6%-28.8%. Congratulations Matt!
UPDATE 8:13 pm: Per Sam Shirazi, “Most of Stafford Election Day is in Vega up 5 BUT Spanbeger wins Stafford in-person early vote 58-42 AND Does not include mail ballots” and “Yes can confirm all that is left is Provisionals in Culpeper in VA-7 Spanberger almost matches Biden Remember Biden won district overall by +7 Rural margins matter”
UPDATE 8:12 pm: Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett has called VA10 for Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D). That’s a huge relief!
UPDATE 8:11 pm: With 55.9% of Election Day precincts and 49.8% of early votes counted in VA10, Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) leads Republican Hung Cao 52.2%-47.8%. As Sam Shirazi tweets, “Wexton up in Loudoun with about half of Election Day in VA-10 And that’s only with in-person early vote Not counting mail Looking good for her”
UPDATE 8:05 pm: Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett calls the Fairfax City mayor’s race for Democrat Catherine Read, which is excellent news!
UPDATE 8:03 pm: Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett says “Phillip Jones (D) elected as the new Mayor of Newport News!” Congratulations!
UPDATE 8:02 pm: Still no early votes reporting in VA02, so it’s skewing Republican…and Jen Kiggans not surprisingly leads Rep. Elaine Luria (D) 57.9%-42.1%. We’re going to need a strong early vote margin for Luria.
UPDATE 8:00 pm: In VA07, with 68.4% of Election Day precincts and just 6.7% of early votes reporting, it’s now Yesli Vega (R) 56.3%-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) 43.5%. So…we’ll see how Prince William County does for Spanberger, but I’m concerned because it didn’t look like big turnout there, at least not on election day. Stay tuned…
UPDATE 7:58 pm – With 46.8% of Election Day precincts and 46.3% of early votes counted in VA10, it’s now Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) 52.8%-Hung Cao (R) 47.1%. Go Wexton!
UPDATE 7:56 pm – Per Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett, “Bob Good (R) has been re-elected in Virginia’s 5th District. Only districts left to call are 2nd, 7th and 10th…” Also, “7th is all about PWC turnout”; “2nd only has election day vote from the Beach in. Need early data.”; “10th has some election day upside for Wexton to come in, plus early (good for her) while Cao has got in a bunch of good stuff for him”; “Early vote in Loudoun goes Wexton by 8000- this will be her single best “precinct” reporting tonight- also tells us this will be more like 2020 in big biases between methods of voting.”
UPDATE 7:55 pm – There are two special elections for School Board in Loudoun County, in Broad Run and Leesburg districts. Right now, with 8 of 13 Election Day precincts reporting in Broad Run, Republican Tiffany Polifko leads Democrat Nicholas Gothard 36.0%-32.8%, but again, the early votes should lean heavily Democratic, so…should be ok for Gothard. And in Leesburg, with 3 of 10 Election Day precincts reporting, Democrat Erika Ogedegbe leads Republican Michael Rivera 41.5%-31.6%. Again, the early votes should lean heavily Democratic…
UPDATE 7:50 pm – In Fairfax City, with 2 of 6 Election Day precincts reporting, Democrat Catherine Read leads Republican Sang Yi 53.5%-46.3%. Looking good for Catherine Read, as the early votes should lean heavily Democratic.
UPDATE 7:47 pm – With 26.5% of Election Day precincts and 13% of early votes counted in VA05, Rep. Bob Good (R) unfortunately appears to be cruising to victory over Democrat Josh Throneburg, with Good ahead 66.2%-33.6%.
UPDATE 7:44 pm – With 16 of 57 precincts reporting in Arlington, it looks like County Board member Matt de Ferranti is cruising towards reelection with 59.8% of the vote, with independent Audrey Clement in second place at 28.9%. And for School Board, Democratic-endorsed Bethany Sutton leads 65.5%-32.6% over James Rives IV.
UPDATE 7:40 pm – With 17.5% of Election Day precincts (which skew Republican) reporting in VA02, Republican Jen Kiggans leads Rep. Elaine Luria (D) 56.5%-43.5%. Need to see early votes…
UPDATE 7:37 pm – Per Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett – “Gerry Connolly (D) has been re-elected in Virginia’s 11th District. That makes 4 Dems and 3 GOP all re-elected so far, with the 2nd, 5th, 7th and 10th still too early to call.”
UPDATE 7:35 pm – With 25.9% of Election Day precincts and 26% of early votes reporting in VA07, it’s now Yesli Vega 60.75%-Rep. Abigail Spanberger 38.98%.
UPDATE 7:33 pm – Per Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett, “1/4 of the election day vote in for Loudoun County and Jennifer Wexton and Hung Cao are running almost even. If this holds, it will be Loudoun early votes vs. the rurals to determine this one.” Also, he’s called VA04 for Rep. Donald McEachin (D).
UPDATE 7:28 pm – Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett has called VA03 for Rep. Bobby Scott (D).
UPDATE 7:27 pm – With 18% of early votes and 1.1% of election day precincts counted in VA10, Republican Hung Cao leads Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) 52.8%-47.0%.
UPDATE 7:23 pm – Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett has called deep-“red” VA09 and VA06 for Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) and Rep. Ben Cline (R), respectively. Tribbett has also called “red” VA01 for Rep. Rob Wittman (R) and deep-“blue” VA08 for Rep. Don Beyer (D).
UPDATE 7:15 pm – Some early results coming in from very “red” areas of VA07 (Orange County and Culpeper County) and VA10 (Fauquier County), and not surprisingly Reps. Spanberger and Wexton are trailing. The issue’s going to be margins. Also note that in both VA07 and VA10, the results so far appear to be election day precincts (which lean Republican), not early votes (which lean Democratic).
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As always, I’ll be live blogging Virginia’s election results as they come in tonight (polls close at 7 pm – make sure you stay in line and cast your ballot!), with results from the State Board of Elections, VPAP, etc. I’ll also be keeping an eye on Twitter feeds from political gurus like Not Larry Sabato (Ben Tribbett), Dave Wasserman, etc. [Note: check out the Election Day Open Thread, particularly the comments section, for tons of information from today…]
The main races I’ll be focusing on are:
- US House races in VA01 (Rep. Rob Wittman vs. Democrat Herb Jones), VA03 (Rep. Bobby Scott vs. Republican Terry Namkung), VA04 (Rep. Donald McEachin vs. Republican Leon Benjamin), VA05 (Rep. Bob Good vs. Democrat Josh Throneburg), VA06 (Rep. Ben Cline vs. Democrat Jennifer Lewis), VA08 (Rep. Don Beyer vs. Republican Karina Lipsman), VA09 (Rep. Morgan Griffith vs. Democrat Taysha Lee DeVaughan), VA11 (Rep. Gerry Connolly vs. Republican Jim Myles).
- In Loudoun County, there are two special elections for School Board – for Broad Run and Leesburg districts – with three candidates running for each seat (Loudoun Dems-endorsed candidate Nick Gothard, plus Andrew Hoyler and Tiffany Polifko for Broad Run; Loudoun Dems-endorsed candidate Erika Ogedegbe, plus Loudoun-GOP-endorsed Michael Anthony Rivera and Lauren Elizabeth Shernoff for Leesburg).
- In Fairfax City, there’s a race for mayor (to replace current Mayor David Meyer, who isn’t seeking reelection) between conservative Republican Sang Yi and long-time Democratic activist/Moms Demand Action “Gun Sense Candidate” Catherine Read. There are also elections for Fairfax City Council, with nine candidates (incumbents Joseph D. Harmon, So P. Lim, D. Thomas Ross and Jon R. Stehle Jr.; challengers Billy M. Bates, Kate G. Doyle Feingold, Jeffrey C. Greenfield, Anahita “Ana” Renner, Craig S. Selewski) vying for six slots.
- In Roanoke City, there’s an election for At-Large City Council, with eleven candidates (including Democrats Peter Volosin, Vivian Sanchez-Jones, Joseph Cobb, Luke Priddy) running for four seats.
- In Arlington, there are races for one County Board seat (incumbent/Democratic-nominated Matt de Ferranti vs. independents Adam Theo and Audrey Clement) and one School Board seat (Democratic-endorsed Bethany Sutton vs. independent James Rives).
- Elections for city council and school board seats (one or more) in Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, Portsmouth, Newport News, Chesterfield, Henrico, Petersburg, Fauquier, etc.
Heading into election day, the consensus seems to be that Democrats will win VA10, with Democrats favored in VA07 and with VA02 a tossup. Also, per Dave Wasserman, if Rep. Luria wins VA02 (and if both Reps. Spanberger and Wexton win), it’s almost certainly going to be a good night for Democrats. We’ll know soon enough.
Finally, here are a few numbers to keep in mind as results start coming in tonight:
- Statewide turnout in the last midterm elections, in 2018, was 59.5% (3,374,382 votes). In 2014, in contrast, turnout was just 41.6% (2,194,346 votes). I assume turnout tonight will be FAR higher than it was in 2014, when Democrats basically slept through the election – with disastrous results. The question is whether we get to 2018 “anti-Trump-backlash”/”blue wave”-level turnout…or maybe even higher? We’ll also see if the general pattern holds, that higher turnout is better for Democrats (although that wasn’t necessarily the case in Virginia last year, when Republicans turned out in droves for Glenn Youngkin).
- Here’s turnout in a few key jurisdictions in 2021, when 3,288,318 total votes were cast: Fairfax County 441k; Virginia Beach 162k; Loudoun County 162k; Chesterfield County 156k; Prince William County 153k;Henrico County 139k; Arlington County 95k; Chesapeake 92k; Richmond City 80k; Norfolk 60k; Alexandria 58k; Hanover County 58k; Stafford County 58k; Spotsylvania County 54k; Newport News 54k; Albemarle County 51k; Hampton 45k; Roanoke County 36k.
Also, see below for information, from Sen. Scott Surovell, about how votes will be reported tonight.
It will be important to keep this order in mind as results are reported on Tuesday night. Also, keep in mind that the early vote skews Democratic and that Election Day itself will be “redder” than the early votes. https://t.co/yZ884f6aOE h/t @ssurovell pic.twitter.com/LhSczJbOR8
— Blue Virginia (@bluevirginia) November 5, 2022
Apparently vote reporting order is NOT going to be uniform, but all votes will be reported by precinct & sorted by E-Day/Early In Person/Early By Mail – diff jurisdictions will report these in diff orders depending when they’re done + early vote should be in sooner than prior yrs
— Senator Scott Surovell (@ssurovell) November 7, 2022
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