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Elections Daily Guide to Incumbent vs. Incumbent, Open-Seat Democratic VA Primaries on 6/20 Looks Mostly Spot-On


The other day, I went through Republican political analyst Joseph Szymanski’s analyses/ratings of Virginia primaries involving incumbents senators and delegates. Now, Szymanski is out with his guide to incumbent-versus-incumbent and open-seat Virginia primaries for June 20th. See below for his ratings of Democratic primaries (I’ll assume he knows the Republican primaries much better than I do…lol) and my comments as well.

House of Delegates – Democratic Primaries

  • HD02 – I agree that Adele McClure  (who I’ve strongly endorsed) is the significant favorite in this primary versus Kevin Saucedo-Broach.
  • HD07 – I agree that this one’s between Fairfax School Board member Karen Keys-Gamarra, Paul Berry and Shyamali Hauth (who I’ve endorsed), with perhaps a slight edge in this primary for Hauth, “but Berry and Keys-Gamarra both have open chances here as well.”
  • HD15 – I agree that Fairfax County School Board member Laura Jane Cohen is the big favorite here over Eric Schmidt and Henri Thompson.
  • HD19 – I don’t really have a good feel for which candidate – Makya Little, Rozia Henson and Natalie Shorter – might be the favorite here; I’d say this one’s a tossup on 6/20.
  • HD26 – I agree; ” This is [Kannan] Srinivasan’s to lose, and it would be a big upset if he does” (the other two candidates are Sreedhar Nagireddi and Sirisha Kompalli.
  • HD54 – I have no idea who’s going to win this one – Katrina Callsen, Dave Norris or Bellamy Brown – and I agree that if Del. Sally Hudson (who’s running for State Senate) endorses one of the primary candidates, that would be “a huge boost for them.”
  • HD55 – I think Amy Laufer’s the definite favorite in this one over Kellen Squire, while Szymanski thinks that Laufer’s a “small favorite” and that “this may end up being the closest race of the June 20th primaries.” We’ll see…
  • HD57 – I agree; this one could “go either way” between Bob Shippee and Susanna Gibson.
  • HD79 – I strongly support Rae Cousins in this one, and also agree with Szymanski that Cousins has a  “huge advantage in fundraising, and I think she’s the current favorite [over Ann Lambert and Richard Walker] until proven otherwise.”
  • HD80 – I haven’t followed this one closely, but I have no particular reason to argue with Szymanski’s pick of Destiny Bolling as the “clear and obvious favorite here” over John Dantzler.
  • HD82 – I agree that Victor McKenzie is the clear favorite in this primary over Kimberly Pope Adams, who “nearly quit the race a month ago” but then decided to stay in it after all. [UPDATE: I’m told by someone with a lot of knowledge about this race that it could go either way]
  • HD84 – I have no reason to disagree that former Del. Nadarius Clark isn’t the big favorite in this one over Michele Joyce.
  • HD92 – Agreed that this one could go to either Bonita Anthony or Kim Sudderth, and that “an endorsement from Delegate Jackie Glass could end up being a crucial aspect of this race.”
  • HD95 – Agreed that former Del. Alex Askew should easily win this primary over Rick James.

State Senate – Democratic Open Seat and Incumbent vs. Incumbent Primaries

  • SD04 – I agree that “this primary will come down to the two Roanoke City councilmembers- Priddy and White-Boyd,” but I’m not sure if White-Boyd is “a small, but clear favorite in this primary” on June 20. We’ll see.
  • SD18 – Szymanski has Sen. Lionell Spruill as a “small favorite” over Sen. Louise Lucas. That could be the case, although I’ve been assuming Sen. Lucas was the slight favorite. Either way, it could end up being VERY close between these two incumbent heavyweight fighters.
  • SD21 – I agree with Szymanski that “[Angelia Williams] Graves is the favorite here, but there’s a pathway that exists for [Andria] McClellan in this primary.”
  • SD27 – Based on money plus support of party insiders, I agree that Joel Griffin is the favorite in this primary over Ben Litchfield in this one. But yes, if he “can get his message out there, Litchfield has a chance.”
  • SD31 – I agree 100% that Russet Perry “is the hefty favorite [over Zach Cummings], and I see no circumstance where she’s not the nominee.” I’ve endorsed Perry in this primary and urge everyone to give her all the support they can, as this November’s general election is going to be crucial, extremely expensive, bruising, etc. over wealthy right wingnut Juan Pablo Segura.
  • SD32 – I agree that Del. Suhas Subramanyam is the “hefty favorite” over former Del. Ibraheem Samirah in this one.
  • SD33 – I agree that former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy is the “current favorite in this primary” over former Del. Hala Ayala, but it could be close and it’s possible Ayala ends up winning. Stay tuned…

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