With Early Voting Starting on Friday, Which Virginia Incumbent Senators and Delegates are “Basically Safe”…and Which Should Be “Very, Very Scared?”

The author of this piece analyzing Virginia incumbents facing primaries, Joe Szymanski, is a Republican, but he’s also an astute political analyst (including of Virginia elections). So here are his ratings of “how in danger I think incumbents facing primary challengers are this cycle…[f]rom ‘You’re basically safe’ to ‘Time to be Scared’,” with my comments/analysis added. As you can see, I largely agree with him, although not surprisingly, we do have a few differences.

“Basically Safe” incumbents

• Del. Jason Ballard (R-HD42): Agreed, he looks safe, given his incumbency advantage plus a massive edge in cash-on-hand.
• Sen. Lamont Bagby (D-SD14): Agreed, no sign that he looks to be in any danger whatsoever from his primary challenger, Katie Gooch.
• Sen. Barbara Favola (D-SD40): Agreed, ZERO chance she loses her primary against James DeVita…or frankly that it’s even close.

“Should Be Fine” incumbents

• Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-SD28): Seems about right, but I don’t have any particular insights into this Republican convention.
• Del. Buddy Fowler (R-HD59): I’ll defer to Republican analyst Joe Szymanski on this one too.
• Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-SD11): I’d put this one at “Leans Deeds”/”Be a Bit Worried” at the moment, mostly because Deeds has an incumbency advantage and also a major cash-on-hand edge ($423k to $139k) as of the first quarter. Also, only 32% of voters in the newly drawn district are “new” to Sen. Deeds. But definitely don’t sleep on this one; Hudson is a serious contender and definitely shouldn’t be written off, IMHO.

Should “Be a Bit Worried” incumbents

• Sen. Jeremy McPike (D-SD29): I’d actually argue that McPike should be more than a “bit worried” about his primary challenge by Del. Elizabeth Guzman, given the demographics of the new district (very diverse, 59% of the voters haven’t been represented by McPike previously), Guzman’s labor support, etc. McPike’s big advantage here is incumbency and a cash-on-hand advantage ($571k to $176k). But stay tuned to this one for sure!
• Del. Tommy Wright (R-HD50): Joe Szymanski’s analysis seems solid here.
• Del. Delores McQuinn (D-HD81): One of Szmanski’s arguments for putting this in the “Be a Bit Worried’ category is “Walker’s financial advantage,” but…actually, Del. McQuinn had $57k cash-on-hand at the end of 1Q23, while Walker had just $39k cash-on-hand. So…I’d say Del. McQuinn is still the strong favorite here.

“Some Alarms Should Be Blaring” incumbents

• Sen. Chap Petersen (D-SD37): I’d put this one between the “Be a Bit Worried” and “Some Alarms Should Be Blaring” categories. The keys to this race are: 1) 54% of the newly drawn district haven’t previously been represented by Sen. Petersen, taking away some of his incumbency “superpower”; 2) Sen. Petersen now only faces ONE strong Democratic primary opponent (Erika Yalowitz announced on 4/20 that she was withdrawing and endorsing Saddam Salim – see my endorsement here); 3) whether or not Salim can raise the money to narrow Sen. Petersen’s big financial advantage ($554k cash-on-hand for Petersen vs. $55k cash-on-hand for Salim at the end of 1Q23); 4) how strong a grassroots/”field” campaign Salim runs. Stay tuned to this one!
• Sen. Amanda Chase (R-SD12): I definitely agree with this one, as former Sen. Glen Sturtevant (R) has been out-fundraising Chase and also racking up endorsements, while Chase has gone pretty quiet in recent weeks. I’d definitely rate Sturtevant as the favorite in this one (there’s another Republican candidate, Tina Ramirez, who probably won’t win, but I’m not sure who she’s drawing more votes from, Chase or Sturtevant)

“Five Alarm – Be Very, Very Scared” Incumbents

• Sen. George Barker (D-SD36): According to VPAP’s analysis, an enormous 93% (!) of voters in the newly drawn district are NOT currently represented by Sen. Barker, really reducing his incumbent “superpower” advantage. Meanwhile, Barker’s Democratic primary opponent, Fairfax County School Board member Stella Pekarsky (see my endorsement here), represents a lot more of the voters in the newly drawn district. Plus, in general, women tend to have an advantage over men in Democratic primaries. Finally, Sen. Barker seems to be running a relatively lackluster campaign so far compared to Pekarsky, but he does still maintain a financial advantage (although watch out, because Clean Virginia and Sonja Smith will probably make sure that Pekarsky matches Barker in terms of money). So…we’ll see, but if I were Sen. Barker, I’d be “very very scared” at this point.
• Sen. Dave Marsden (D-SD35): I’d put this more in the “some alarms should be blaring” category. Sen. Marsden’s challenges here include the fact that 71% of voters in the newly drawn district aren’t represented by him; he’s facing a young woman (Heidi Drauschak) with a lot of financial backing from Clean Virginia and Sonja Smith (and likely a lot more to come); Drauschak appears to be running a very energetic “field” campaign; etc. So we’ll see, but for now Sen. Marsden has the financial advantage ($281k cash-on-hand for him vs. $141k cash-on-hand for Drauschak).
• Sen. Joe Morrissey (D-SD13): Agreed; Sen. Morrissey is in big, big trouble against Democratic challenger, former Del. Lashrecse Aird, who’s already up on TV, has received a slew of endorsements, and is running against a DEEPLY flawed incumbent (see here, here, etc.).  Also note that 61% of the voters in this newly drawn district are “new” to Sen. Morrissey (vs. 74% for former Del. Aird). Plus, women tend to do well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries. So…watch out – and go Aird!
• Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler (D-HD96): I’d probably put her a couple notches higher than this, given that she’s an incumbent facing three Democratic primary opponents, who could split the anti-incumbent and/or anti-Convirs-Fowler vote. Also note that just 36% of voters in the newly drawn district are “new” to Del. Convirs-Fowler. Finally, in terms of cash-on-hand, none of the candidates really has an advantage (Convirs-Fowler had $22k as of the end of 1Q23, Susan Hippen had $24k, Brandon Hutchins had $19k, Sean Monteiro had $11k). So…we’ll see on this one .