I don’t know this person (he’s a student at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln), but his analysis of competitive 2023 VA State Senate races is generally spot-on. The only other points I’d make are that:
1) The main worry among Virginia Dems at this point is Youngkin’s massive amount of money (mostly from far-right donors like the Nazi memorabilia dude, the “secretive titan…ruthlessly leveraging the coronavirus crisis—and his vast fortune—to strip workers of protections,” etc.)
“…Democrats also say that based on 2023 so far, they see plenty of reason for optimism about their chances with voters.
An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean — or the relative liberal or conservative history — of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.”
So that’s certainly cause for Democratic optimism, as is “the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year in which the liberal candidate, now-Justice Janet Protasiewicz, won by 11 points — in a state famous for its wafer-thin election margins”; Democrat Aaron Rouse’s January 2023 win for a State Senate seat formerly held by Republican Jen Kiggans; Jennifer McClellan’s huge (74%-26%) VA04 victory in late February; etc. Overall, according to Daily Kos, so far in 2023, Democrats have been outperforming Joe Biden’s 2020 margins by 7.5 percentage points and also outperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins by 11.8 percentage points.
Now obviously, there’s no guarantee that this trend will continue, including here in Virginia this November, but if it DOES continue – and it’s up to all of us to make that happen! – Democrats should be in good shape for holding the State Senate and taking back the House of Delegates, even taking into account Youngkin’s massive far-right/dirty-money haul…