See here and below for interesting graphics by VPAP on 2023 early voting. According to VPAP, “Nearly one third of Virginia voters cast their ballots before Election Day, a similar share compared to last years Congressional elections” – but a bit lower than in 2021 (36.2%) and a LOT lower than in the COVID/presidential/USPS debacle election of 2020 (63.0%). Also note that prior to 2020, when the Democratic “trifecta” (governor/State Senate/House of Delegates) changed Virginia law to make early voting MUCH easier, hardly anyone voted early, as it required voters to select a reason why they needed to do so.
Now, here’s some analysis, by Sam Shirazi, of these graphics.
“Interesting graphics by VPAP based on the actual results. The early vote was more GOP this year, but narrowed edge in Election Day, so it appears there was fair amount of ‘cannibalization’. Dems even won Election Day in some close races like HD-21.”
Note that by “cannibalization,” Sam Shirazi is referring to Republican voters who normally vote on election day simply voting earlier, but not adding any additional Republican votes to the total.
Also interesting from VPAP: