A new poll from Roanoke College is out this morning, and it has a few interesting findings (although, of course, the usual caveats to polling apply…and in this case, the “likely voter” model seems questionable at best, as do some of the other numbers in here):
- “Among self-reported Republicans, Donald Trump has a huge lead of 75% as their first choice to be the Republican nominee for president in November, followed by 15% for Nikki Haley and 8% for someone else. Support for both candidates has increased since November as other candidates have dropped out of the race; Trump is up 24% and Haley is up 5%. When asked about their second choice for the nominee, 6% chose Trump, 25% picked Haley and 56% would prefer someone else.”
- “We asked Virginians about their intention to vote in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) and 56% of Virginians indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote. Of those likely voters, Trump holds an 8-point lead over Haley (51% to 43%). Among likely voters on Tuesday, Democrats prefer Haley (87%) over Trump (10%), Republicans choose Trump (80%) over Haley (18%) and the closeness of the race comes from independents who prefer Haley (54%) over Trump (44%). Of the entire sample, 40% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans and 55% of independents self-identified into the “likely voter” category. “
- “Trump has a 62-point lead among Republicans and Haley has a 10-point lead among independents, so while a Trump victory is the likely outcome, Haley will capture several of Virginia’s 48 delegates up for grabs.”
- “Looking ahead to the general election in November and likely matchups for the presidency, President Joe Biden maintains a four-point lead over Trump (47% to 43%).”
- “Despite Virginia Republicans’ strong desire for Trump to be the party’s candidate in this November’s general election, the Roanoke College Poll found that Trump trails Biden by four points in November’s race but Haley would lead Biden by nine points if she were the nominee.” (This is very unlikely to be true, by the way)
- “Virginians’ approval of Gov. Glenn Youngkin remains approximately the same as our polls from May 2023, with 53% of Virginians approving of the way Youngkin is handling his job as governor.” (Very mediocre by historic standards, by the way)
- “Approximately 48% of Virginians report a favorable impression of Youngkin (down two points), while 41% report an unfavorable impression (up two points).”
- “We found that 63% of Virginians strongly or somewhat support laws that would help small businesses compete with pharmaceutical companies and existing medical cannabis dispensaries while only 15% somewhat or strongly oppose. A similar proportion (60%) strongly or somewhat support laws that would regulate education needs for dispensary workers in Virginia with only 12% indicating any level of opposition. Responses were largely non-partisan, with majority support among Democrats (68% and 62% for the two questions), Republicans (56% and 53%) and independents (70% and 55%).“
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