10 Thoughts/Observations on a Potential Abigail Spanberger vs. Bobby Scott 2025 Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

This morning, Punchbowl News published a story about a rumor that’s been floating around for weeks, namely the possibility of Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03) running for Governor of Virginia next year, challenging Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07), who announced over a year ago that she’d be leaving Congress to seek the governorship. According to Punchbowl News:

• “Scott’s mulling the race comes as some Virginia Democrats have raised concerns about the party’s standing with Black voters.”
• Rep. Scott said “Usually people running statewide take about a three-month leave and I’m not ready to do that, but we’ll see. I haven’t ruled it out.”
• “Top Democratic sources are doubtful Scott will get into this race.”
• “Several senior Virginia Democrats expressed concerns with Spanberger’s ability to excite Black voters in the state, especially after a disappointing presidential election where Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed among voters of color.”
• “One Virginia state lawmaker told us Sears could peel off Black voters from Democrats. The Democratic nominee will have to ‘reintroduce themselves to Black voters,’ the lawmaker said. Others said Scott could make the primary competitive.”A

A few thoughts on this story.

1. I’ll be surprised if Rep. Scott actually pulls the trigger and jumps in this race, for several reasons. For starters, Spanberger has a HUGE head start, having announced over a year ago. In that time, she has racked up a gazillion endorsements (including Sen. Tim Kaine, VA House Speaker Don Scott, former Gov. Ralph Northam, Rep. Gerry Connolly, Rep. Don Beyer, Rep. Jennifer Wexton, Rep.-elect Eugene Vindman, Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam, former Rep. Elaine Luria, former Rep. Tom Perriello, etc, etc. Spanberger also has built a huge war chest for her gubernatorial run — over $5 million as of June 30, 2024. In stark contrast, Rep. Scott had only $205k cash-on-hand as of 11/25/24 – a VERY small fraction of what Spanberger has.
2. So could Rep. Scott catch up to Spanberger if he threw his hat in the ring?  In terms of money, that’s HIGHLY doubtful; to the contrary, it’s much more likely that Spanberger would pull further away as time goes by, as she’s a great fundraiser, while Rep. Scott never really has had to be in his safe-“blue” district. And in terms of endorsements…nope, Rep. Scott almost certainly couldn’t catch up, as Spanberger’s already locked up most of the “big names,” with a few major exceptions (e.g., State Sen. Louise Lucas, Sen. Mark Warner, Rep. Jennifer McClellan).
3. If Sen. Kaine had been elected VP in 2016, the rumors then were that Rep. Bobby Scott would be appointed to fill Kaine’s seat in the US Senate. That must have been very frustrating to Rep. Scott. Now, Scott’s stuck in a US House controlled (albeit barely) by Republicans, and with Trump heading to the White House, which means that at 77 years of age, Scott faces at least four years (when he’ll be 81 years old) of getting little if any legislation passed. So one can DEFINITELY understand why Scott would be interested in moving on from the US House, and in the case of governor, into an executive position where he could actually be in charge and get stuff done. That’s got to be tempting for him.
4. In a Democratic primary, it’s very hard to see how Scott could beat Spanberger, assuming that Spanberger has many times more money, many times more endorsements, etc, etc. Also, in general, when it’s a woman vs. a man in Virginia Democratic primaries, women tend to do very well. So if Scott ends up deciding to run against Spanberger for the 2025 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nomination, he’d definitely be the underdog, with Spanberger the strong favorite. Does Scott really want to spend three months fighting a (probably) hopeless battle?
5. Would a Spanberger vs. Scott primary be damaging/divisive? Perhaps, although that’s pretty much what people ALWAYS say, and usually the party ends up coming together (for the most part) by November, especially if they’re running against far-right/non-moderate Republicans, as will certainly be the case next year (e.g., Winsome Sears will be the Republicans’ gubernatorial nominee, Jason Miyares the AG nominee, and some other right wingnut their LG nominee – “Extreme Team” Part Deux!). Having said that, the risk would be that a Spanberger vs. Scott primary could be focused heavily on “identity politics” and get nasty/divisive in that way, which wouldn’t be great for Democrats. Plus, a primary would force Spanberger to spend money that she’d rather save for the general election – although, having said that, the Democratic primary candidates could use their money to make the case FOR themselves, their ability to win in November,  their positive vision for Virginia, etc.
6. The media will be bummed if it’s not Spanberger vs. Sears, as they LOOOVE the storyline about two women running against each other, the historic nature of the race, etc. In part, that’s because the possibility of Virginia’s first-ever female governor IS truly interesting and historic. However, it’s also because the media can use the woman vs. woman angle to avoid talking about how extreme Winsome Sears is, which they’re terrified to do (just as they falsely painted Youngkin as some sort of “moderate” when he ran in 2021, instead of informing their readers/viewers/listeners that Youngkin was a Trump-endorsed right winger all the way).
7. The core argument that Bobby Scott seems to be making is that Abigail Spanberger wouldn’t be able to turn out the “base” – specifically African-American voters – in large numbers next November, but that he could do so. Is there any evidence for this? Hard to say, really. I mean, we can look at how Barack Obama did in Virginia (won by 6 points and 4 points) compared to Hillary Clinton (won by 5 points, with Tim Kaine on the ticket), Joe Biden (won by 10 points) and Kamala Harris (won by nearly 6 points) for some clues, but those were presidential races, which are VERY different than gubernatorial races in terms of turnout, etc., so it’s really an apples-to-oranges comparison. Also note that some of the lowest turnout in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections was in VA03 – Bobby Scott’s district, while turnout in VA07 in 2020 (when Abigail Spanberger was on the ballot) was the highest in Virginia. Also note that in 2020, Joe Biden got 2.4 million votes in Virginia, while in 2024, Kamala Harris got 2.3 million votes. So… not sure there’s a clear case to be made here that simply having a person of one particular race, ethnicity, gender, etc. on the ticket automatically results in higher turnout by members of that particular race, ethnicity, gender, etc.
8. In terms of age, Bobby Scott is 77, while Abigail Spanberger is 45 (32 years younger than Scott). Would Virginia Democratic primary voters prefer a younger candidate over an older one? My guess is that they would, all else being equal.
9. In terms of the electability argument, Spanberger has won multiple TOUGH races in a “purple,” competitive district (VA07), starting with her beating then-Rep. Dave Brat in 2018. In contrast, Bobby Scott hasn’t had a truly competitive race in his deep-“blue” district since…forever, pretty much.
10. Finally, to the extent the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be determined heavily by which “base” turns out in large numbers, the question is whether Spanberger or Scott is best suited to do that on the Democratic side. Of course, a lot of it will be outside the candidate’s control, as whatever Trump is doing in the White House – also his approval rating come next fall – will likely have a MUCH greater impact on whether Democrats or Republicans are more excited to come out and vote. Remember, when the White House switches parties, the next year in Virginia the governor’s mansion almost ALWAYS goes to the party NOT in the White House (e.g., in 2008, Barack Obama won the White House, and Virginia specifically by 6 points, then the next year Bob McDonnell won the governorship by 18 points — an incredibly 24-point swing; in 2016, Trump won the White House, then the next year Ralph Northam won the governor’s race by 9 points). As for their ability to “fire up the base,” I’m not sure either Spanberger OR Scott is particularly the “red meat” type; Spanberger’s “brand” is mostly about “working across the aisle,” “bipartisanship,” etc., while Scott has definitely not been known as a partisan warrior over the years.

So…what do you think? Would you be happy – or not – if Bobby Scott ends up running against Abigail Spanberger next year in the Democratic gubernatorial primary?