New Roanoke College Poll Finds Spanberger with 15-Point Lead Over Earle-Sears; Trump at 37%-58% Favorable; Youngkin at Just 48%-42% Favorable

Roanoke College polling is not the most reliable or accurate (see here and here for examples of what I mean), but for the record, here are the findings from their latest poll of Virginia. BTW, note that Trump was at a similar approval rating in the fall of 2017…and Northam won in a landslide. So obviously don’t take this election for granted, but if Trump’s approval’s in the 30%’s (or lower) this fall, Virginia Republicans will likely get crushed.

• 15-point lead for Spanberger over Earle-Sears: “In a very early look at the likely November gubernatorial matchup, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 39%-24%…One-third (32%) of registered voters are undecided, and 4% said they would vote for someone else.”
• Terrible ratings for Trump; under 50% favorable for Youngkin (that’s not good for a governor, given that governors are usually very popular): “Virginians remain more likely to view Youngkin favorably (48% favorable/42% unfavorable), while Trump’s favorable rating is again similar to his first term (37% favorable/58% unfavorable).”
• As Sam Shirazi puts it: “Lots of undecideds in new Roanoke College poll of Virginia; Spanberger 39% Sears 24%. But Trump is at 59% disapproval vs. 37% approval in Virginia. Many voters not tuned into Governor’s race yet. But those [are] rough numbers for GOP to run with an incumbent President”
• Mixed views on immigration: “Virginians generally favor increasing opportunities for legal immigration to the U.S. (81%), but also favor increasing deportations of those who are here illegally (59%). They also favor making it easier for asylum seekers to legally work while awaiting decisions on their applications (72%) and increasing penalties for businesses that hire people who are not legally allowed to work here (60%), but oppose substantially expanding the wall with Mexico (52% oppose; 46% favor)…A majority of respondents (72%) think undocumented immigrants who are currently here should be allowed to stay if they meet certain conditions, while 26% think they should not be allowed to remain in the U.S.”