Flash back to January 6, 2021 – Ralph Northam was governor of Virginia, doing one of his routine briefings on COVID19, talking about how he was relieved to put the COVID pandemic year of 2020 behind us and “begin the new year [2021] with optimism.” Meanwhile, even as Northam briefed the press on Virginia’s progress in the COVID pandemic, all hell was breaking loose at the U.S. Capitol – just a few miles from Virginia – with thousands of angry Trump supporters (egged on by Trump himself) violently assaulting police officers, looking to maim/kill Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi, attempting to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election, etc.
Northam’s response was to order Virginia National Guard and 200 Virginia state troopers to the U.S. Capitol to help restore order, which finally happened once reinforcements were brought in and Trump belatedly called for his shock troops to go home. As for the response of Virginia politicos, Democrats – and a few Republicans – expressed their disgust, outrage and unequivocal condemnation of what happened. As for many Republicans, in contrast, while they almost all condemned the violence, they continued to perpetuate the lies about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election which helped fuel the insurrection in the first place. For instance:
- Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09) tweeted that the US Capitol “should not be subject to break-ins and violence,” that “its occupiers must leave and face justice.” Great, except that Griffith himself was part of the problem, having announced on January 6, 2021 that he would ” vote to sustain objections to slates of electors submitted by states we believe clearly violated the Constitution in the presidential election of 2020.” This was total bullsh**, obviously, and also the type of unhinged rhetoric that helped fuel the anger of those who participated in the insurrection.
- Trump’s former Virginia campaign chair, MAGA radio host John Fredericks, tweeted that “the violence we’re witnessing at the U.S. Capitol is unacceptable & wrong” and “must stop,” also that it “doesn’t speak to our movement or the 10’s of millions of #MAGA Deplorables that I know & love.” So sure, the first part is 100% correct, but the second part, about how the insurrection supposedly didn’t “speak to our movement” is not accurate at all. For instance, a poll in January 2024 found that “Two-thirds of Republicans polled said they still do not believe Joe Biden was legitimately elected, while 62% say there is solid evidence that there was widespread voter fraud in 2020.” Just as bad or worse, only 14% (!!!) of Republicans said that Trump bears a “great deal” or “good amount” of responsibility for the attack on the U.S. Capitol, with 54% actually saying Trump bears no responsibility at all (correct answer: Trump bears a HUGE AMOUNT of the responsibility!). And only 18% of Republicans said that Trump was guilty of “criminal conspiracy to defraud the United States which alleges he lied about voter fraud in an illegal effort to overturn the 2020 election” (corret answer: Trump was VERY MUCH guilty, no question about it!). So yeah, what happened on 1/6/21 very much DID speak to the MAGA movement, no question about it.
- Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06), a far-right MAGA Republican, tweeted, “While people have a right to peaceably protest, those who breached he Capitol and assaulted Capitol Police officers should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law…Violence is never the answer, and I condemn their actions in the strongest possible terms.” (Of course, Cline was one of the members of Congress who dishonestly/falsely denied the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election and voted against certification, so he was very much part of the problem)
- Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01) wrote: “What happened on Wednesday in our nation’s Capital is a blemish on this nation and I condemn, in the strongest possible terms, the acts of violence and destruction that occurred at the Capitol building. We may disagree on policy and who we support for President, but this country is built on law and order. We must continue to stand for the great American tradition of peaceful disagreement and debate rather than anarchy and violence.” Good statement – if Wittman had stopped right there. Instead, unfortunately but tellingly, Wittman followed that with a bunch of blather – and outright lies – about how supposedly “the facts support my vote to object to the Pennsylvania electors.” Wittman also voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election, which was totally inexcusable, unjustifiable and unforgivable.
- Rep. Bob Good (R-VA05) wrote: “The lawlessness that broke down our Capitol doors is a reminder of how sacred our duty is to uphold the rule of law.” Yes, obviously, except that Good then noted that even AFTER the insurrection (on January 7, 2021), he “continued with my objection to the submission of electors’ from six states in question (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).” Good also blathered about how Congress should “not accept electoral submissions from states with sufficient evidence of fraud, which warrants full investigation, as well as states where legislators did not ensure the law was followed or ensure the integrity of their elections.” Insane.
In stark contrast, Virginia Democrats voted to certify the election – which, obviously, EVERY member of Congress should have done – while unequivocally condemning the violent pro-Trump insurrection and pointing out the obvious: namely, as VA Democrats’ Chair Susan Swecker wrote at the time, that:
- “What we saw at the Capitol is the direct result of Republican elected officials undermining our democracy at every turn…The Republican Party has made their disdain for democracy very clear…It’s up to every Virginian and every American to reject the values of the Republican Party that led to a violent coup attempt…in our nation’s capital. The future of our democracy depends on it.”
Bingo – particularly that last part about how “every Virginian and every American to reject the values of the Republican Party that led to a violent coup attempt…in our nation’s capital. The future of our democracy depends on it.”
Except that this is NOT what ended up happening. In hindsight, or even at the time, there were numerous signs that U.S. democracy was on a disastrous course. For starters, unlike what we’ve seen in other countries (e.g., South Korea recently), Trump and his fellow coup plotters weren’t arrested, aggressively prosecuted, jailed, etc. Instead, most of the ringleaders of 1/6/21 never faced justice for what they did, let alone quickly – like, in the days/weeks/months after 1/6/21. Thus, Senate Republicans (thanks a LOT, Mitch McConnell!) overwhelmingly voted to let Trump off the hook yet AGAIN; the Biden administration, particularly Attorney General Merrick Garland, failed to act with the urgency that the situation merited; the U.S. justice system largely failed to hold the perpetrators accountable; etc.
And, in the end, U.S. voters mostly moved on, “memory holed” 1/6/21, and almost immediately went back to business as usual. The first serious signs of this started over the summer of 2021, with Joe Biden’s rapidly declining approval rating – in large part because of rising inflation, which was a worldwide phenomenon coming out of the COVID pandemic (supply-chain issues, recovering demand, etc.) and certainly wasn’t Biden’s fault (not that Trump supporters will EVER believe that fact), as well as the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, etc.
In terms of elections, the first REALLY big sign that we were in deep trouble came on November 2, 2021 – the first statewide election since the insurrection, which took place just 11 months earlier, right down the road from Virginia, and which if ANYONE should have remembered was Virginia voters. The result: Republican Glenn Youngkin — who boasted about how he was “honored to receive President Trump’s endorsement,” how “President Trump represents SO MUCH of why I’m running” and how “They said: This guy is like Donald Trump. I said thank you very much.” — actually won the election, albeit narrowly, over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe. A few lessons from that election for Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections and for U.S. politics more broadly, include:
- Youngkin’s campaign was based on demagoguery, fear mongering, falsehoods/lies, xenophobia, transphobia, racism, etc, etc. For instance, Youngkin et al ranted (falsely!) about “Critical Race Theory,” something that 99% of Virginia voters had never even heard about before, which wasn’t even taught in Virginia schools and which had no impact on anyone’s life. Yet they managed to turn “CRT” and other lies (e.g., see “Youngkin’s claim that McAuliffe asked the FBI to go after Virginia parents is deliberately false“; “[Youngkin’s] Claims U.S. Traditions Are Being Axed From Schools Are False“; Youngkin’s “pants-on-fire” claim that “Terry (McAuliffe) calls in his friend Joe Biden to actually put the DOJ on Virginia parents”; Youngkin’s false claim that Terry McAuliffe favors “taking the Pledge of Allegiance and the 4th of July out of the (school) curriculum”; “The Right’s Big Lie About a Sexual Assault in Virginia“; etc, etc.) into a huge issue in the 2021 gubernatorial campaign, demonstrating the power and reach of the right-wing “noise machine” (whether we’re talking about Fox “News,” right-wing talk radio, social media – particularly Twitter) and specifically its ability to make an issue out of literally ANYTHING, even if it’s complete horse manure.
- We saw most if not all of this in Trump’s 2024 presidential election campaign, which was heavily focused on…yep, demagoguery, xenophobia, transphobia (hundreds of millions of dollars in ads by the Trump campaign stoking anti-trans and anti-immigrant sentiments).
- For its part, the “mainstream media” in 2021 almost completely failed to call out Youngkin’s lies and demagoguery, early and often, for what it was. Instead, the “mainstream media” did its usual – false equivalence, “both sidesism,” “sanewashing,” normalization of extremism, refusal to clearly inform readers/listeners/viewers of the fact that Youngkin was LYING, stenography masquerading as journalism, etc. This culminated in a whopping three godawful WaPo front-page stories on the Virginia governor’s race on October 9, 2021, in which they – among other things – falsely claimed that Youngkin was some sort of “6 foot 5 mystery date.” Ugh.)
- We most definitely saw the “mainstream media” fail to inform the public, fail to call out Trump’s lies and extremism, etc., in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Instead, we got relentless “both sidesism,” false equivalence, “sanewashing,” whitewashing, constant bashing of Joe Biden, relentless badmouthing of the U.S. economy (aka, the envy of the world!), etc, etc.
- Virginia Republican voters were REALLY fired up, while Democratic voters turned out in large numbers – just not large enough to overcome near-presidential-election turnout levels by Republicans in deep-red parts of Virginia. There are a lot of misconceptions about the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. For starters, Democrats DID turn out to vote for Terry McAuliffe, who actually got 200k more votes in 2021 than Ralph Northam got in 2017, when he won in a landslide. The problem was that Virginia *Republicans* turned out in massive, unprecedented numbers, near-presidential-election levels in some deep-red parts of Virginia, for Glenn Youngkin. Which enabled Youngkin to pull of a narrow victory of McAuliffe, with Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares winning even more narrowly over Hala Ayala and Mark Herring for LG and AG, respectively.
- In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris received 75 million votes, down from Biden’s 81 million votes in 2020. That’s different than the Virginia 2021 gubernatorial election, where Terry McAuliffe got more votes than Ralph Notham four years earlier. As for Trump, he got 77 million votes in 2024, up 3 million from his 74 million votes in 2020. So, in the end, Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election demonstrated that there was still room to grow for the pro-Trump Republican “base” – which is what we saw in November 2024. As for Kamala Harris, if she had just held steady compared to Biden’s 2020 vote total, she would have won. But she didn’t, for a variety of reasons (mostly, Biden’s low approval ratings, media-driven “vibecession” and America’s particularly intense anti-incumbent bias), etc.
- As noted above, the fact that Youngkin won the 2021 Virginia governor’s election – held just 11 months after the violent, pro-Trump 1/6/21 insurrection (right down the road from Virginia, with Virginia national guard and state troopers even being sent to help secure the U.S. Capitol) – should have been seen as highly ominous for what was to come in 2024 and beyond. As Virginia Democrats’ Chair Susan Swecker said after the 1/6/21 insurrection, that should have disqualified Republicans – certainly ones who supported Trump, or Trump himself! – going forward, FOREVER. I mean, if attempting to stage a violent coup and working to destroy our democracy isn’t disqualifying, then NOTHING is in U.S. politics. And yet, 11 months later, a small majority of Virginia voters was like, sure, what the hell, let’s go with the guy who’s endorsed by Trump, who says he’s just like Trump, etc. More than anything, this should have set off red-alarm warning sirens for anyone/everyone who cares about our democracy. But it mostly didn’t, in large part because the media didn’t want to talk about that, instead heavily normalized it, etc.
- In 2024, it wasn’t just Trump-supporting Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor’s race, it was Trump himself – the guy more responsible than anyone for almost destroying our democracy – getting 77 million votes and winning the election. Crazy.
- Before lurching hard right, Glenn Youngkin HAD BEEN a relatively normal-sounding, “moderate” business guy at the Carlyle Group. Hell, Youngkin had even praised Communist China’s “unique system,” talked about the advantages of diversity, ESG (“environmental, social and governance” principles in investing), “lowering [our] carbon footprint,” etc. Yet at the same time, while kinda/sorta keeping Trump at arm’s length from the perspective of the “mainstream media” and the general public, Youngkin in 2021 enthusiastically embraced Trump in his campaign materials aimed at Trump voters, bragging about how much like Trump he was, etc. Then, by 2024, Youngkin had morphed COMPLETELY into the MAGA/Trump extremist camp, appearing on stage for Trump’s campaign, endorsing/embracing Trump, you name it. This is a clear illustration of how Republicans – Mitch McConnell and many others – thought they could manage Trump, benefit from Trump’s energized “base” but not have the entire party go into far-right-extremist crazytown. Except that this strategy didn’t work. At all.
- Fast forward to 2024, and the craven, calculating “mainstream” Republican failure to reject MAGA extremism (combined with many Republicans who enthusiastically embraced MAGA extremism) has come to full fruition, with Trump’s reelection and disaster looming for the United States of America. And yes, you could see that coming in 2021, first with Senate Republicans’ refusal to convict Trump, then the pilgrimage of Republicans (e.g., Kevin McCarthy) to kiss and make up with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, then the election of Trump-endorsed Glenn Youngkin right down the road from where the 1/6/21 insurrection took place. Disturbing. (Oh, also note that Trump previously had been a member of the Reform Party, a Democrat and an independent, while not SOUNDING like the authoritarian he’s morphed into. For both Trump and Youngkin, it seems that whatever core principles they have are subservient to their own personal ambitions for money and power)
- In the 2021 elections, Youngkin won by a narrow majority, while House of Delegates Republicans managed only a slim majority, while the State Senate remained closely divided (Democrats maintained a “blue wall” there). This somewhat foreshadowed what ended up happening in the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections.
- In November 2024, while Trump won by a fairly narrow margin (under 50% of the vote, just a few 10s of thousands of votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), US House Republicans barely squeaked by with a tiny, quite possibly unworkable, majority, while U.S. Senate Democrats hopefully have the power – with the filibuster – to block at least some of Trump’s disastrous policies. The main difference with Virginia 2021 is that the State Senate wasn’t on the ballot that year, so Democrats maintained a clear ability to block Youngkin’s policies. In contrast, Democrats (combined with independents Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, both of whom caucused with Democrats) lost several U.S. Senate seats in November 2024, so things are worse at the federal level, from a Democratic perspective, than in Virginia after the 2021 elections. Still, the results of the 2021 Virginia elections were somewhat, albeit not perfectly (e.g., US House Republicans actually LOST seats from their pre-election majority) predictive of what ended up happening in 2024…
- Another concept that comes to mind when thinking about the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial elections – and which turned out to be predictive, at least to an extent, for the 2024 presidential election – is “thermostatic politics” (“After a party takes power and moves the country in a new direction, voters quickly put on the brakes. Rather than being rewarded for their successes or keeping their promises, they’re punished.”) It’s completely mindless, of course, in the sense that voters often don’t correctly attribute policy successes and failures accurately, nor do they consistently (or at all?) reward/punish parties for what they did right or wrong (for a LOT more on this topic, definitely read “Democracy for Realists” if you haven’t already!). In the Virginia 2021 elections, we could see “thermostatic politics” very much at work, in a few different ways. First off, Virginia did what it almost ALWAYS does, which is to go hard opposite of whatever party just won the White House the year earlier (e.g., in 2009, Bob McDonnell won the Virginia governor’s race by 18 points, just one year after Barack Obama had won the White House – and had won Virginia by 6 points!; in 2017, Ralph Northam won the governor’s race by 9 points, a year after Trump won the White House). Second, there was ZERO connection between policy accomplishments – specifically, the myriad of superb bills passed during the Virginia Democratic “trifecta” of 2020-2021, plus Ralph Northam’s skillful handling of the COVID pandemic, etc. In the end, instead of *rewarding* Democrats for all of that, a narrow majority of Virginia voters actually PUNISHED Democrats and rewarded Republicans (who had opposed almost all of the excellent policies passed in the “trifecta,” while also opposing efforts to minimize hospitalizations and deaths from COVID). Brilliant.
- In the 2022 “midterms” and the 2024 presidential election, we saw all of this on a national scale, with tens of millions of voters: a) actually PUNISHING Democrats and the Biden-Harris administration for what was, without a doubt, the most effective response to post-COVID problems (e.g., inflation, supply-chain snafus) in the world; b) failing to reward Democrats for their massive, historic, legislative accomplishments (the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, massive infrastructure investement, the American Rescue Plan, etc, etc.) despite a tiny legislative majority; c) actually REWARDING Republicans for their obstruction, incompetence, extremism, etc. Again, all of this was foreshadowed by the 2021 Virginia governor’s election.
Bottom line: Virginia’s elections aren’t a perfect predictor of national trends, but if you think about it, the 2021 Virginia elections did a pretty damn good job of highlighting and foreshadowing what was to come in 2022 and 2024. Maybe everyone should be paying more attention to Virginia politics?
P.S. If I think of any other parallels, I’ll add them. Also, feel free to comment and let me know what I missed. Thanks.
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