New Roanoke College Poll Finds Spanberger with 15-Point Lead Over Earle-Sears; Trump at 37%-58% Favorable; Youngkin at Just 48%-42% Favorable

UPDATE 3:35 pm – Here’s what former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Trump-voting conservative Republican, thinks:

“I seriously doubt that Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Winsome Earle Sears in the 2025 Governor’s race is 15%, but I have no doubt that Spanberger has a sizable lead.

It’s time for Republicans to get real. Winsome Sears is not a strong statewide candidate. If she is the Republican nominee, she will lose.

The question is, in a state that favors Democrats, and in a year that will likely favor Democrats, is there any Republican who could win?”

Roanoke College polling is not the most reliable or accurate (see here and here for examples of what I mean), but for the record, here are the findings from their latest poll of Virginia. BTW, note that Trump was at a similar approval rating in the fall of 2017…and Northam won in a landslide. So obviously don’t take this election for granted, but if Trump’s approval’s in the 30%’s (or lower) this fall, Virginia Republicans will likely get crushed.

• 15-point lead for Spanberger over Earle-Sears: “In a very early look at the likely November gubernatorial matchup, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 39%-24%…One-third (32%) of registered voters are undecided, and 4% said they would vote for someone else.”
• Terrible ratings for Trump; under 50% favorable for Youngkin (that’s not good for a governor, given that governors are usually very popular): “Virginians remain more likely to view Youngkin favorably (48% favorable/42% unfavorable), while Trump’s favorable rating is again similar to his first term (37% favorable/58% unfavorable).”
• As Sam Shirazi puts it: “Lots of undecideds in new Roanoke College poll of Virginia; Spanberger 39% Sears 24%. But Trump is at 59% disapproval vs. 37% approval in Virginia. Many voters not tuned into Governor’s race yet. But those [are] rough numbers for GOP to run with an incumbent President”
• Mixed views on immigration: “Virginians generally favor increasing opportunities for legal immigration to the U.S. (81%), but also favor increasing deportations of those who are here illegally (59%). They also favor making it easier for asylum seekers to legally work while awaiting decisions on their applications (72%) and increasing penalties for businesses that hire people who are not legally allowed to work here (60%), but oppose substantially expanding the wall with Mexico (52% oppose; 46% favor)…A majority of respondents (72%) think undocumented immigrants who are currently here should be allowed to stay if they meet certain conditions, while 26% think they should not be allowed to remain in the U.S.”