Are Virginia Democratic Straw Polls Predictive? Sometimes, But…Here Are 10 of the Worst Misses Since 2008

I’ve written previously about how sometimes Democratic primary straw polls sometimes get pretty close to the actual primary election results, while other times they miss – sometimes badly.  You also need to take straw poll results with a bunch of caveats and qualiifers, as I pointed out back in 2009, including:

• “Obviously, a straw poll is held in one specific location, so its results – particularly for a statewide office – would be valid at all only in that specific location (e.g., southern Alexandria). Beyond that, I wouldn’t put much stock in them.”
• “I would argue that straw polls can be significant both as an indication of organization strength and also as a measure of true, grassroots support.”
• “It matters if a campaign decides to seriously contest a straw poll or not,” including whether or not a campaign decides to buy tickets for its supporters to attend the straw poll, makes an effort to encourage its supporters to show up and vote in the straw poll, etc.
• ” Straw polls probably only matter if the result is surprising or even shocking in some way.” (e.g., the 2006 St. Patrick’s Day victory by Jim Webb over Harris Miller).

You could add a bunch more caveats as well, I’m sure.  The bottom line is that straw polls are: 1) mostly a fundraiser for local committees; 2) definitely not scientific polls; 3) a snapshot in time and in a particular location of how attendees at particular straw poll – usually party activists – feel; 4) often skewed, sometimes HEAVILY, by candidates who decide to buy a bunch of tickets and/or encourage their supporters to attend. And yet there are campaigns out there who love to tout their wins in straw polls as (supposed) evidence that they’ve got “momentum” and/or are headed to victory in June. Which is why it’s worth reviewing the track record of straw polls to see how they’ve actually performed.

So, with that, here are ten Virginia Democratic straw polls which missed the actual primary results, sometimes by a huge margin, since 2008.

1. The 2008 Mt. Vernon Dems’ straw poll had Hillary Clinton 56%-Barack Obama 44%. Note that Obama went on to win the Virginia primary overwhelmingly just 10 days later. And for VA11, the straw poll had it Leslie Byrne 52%-Doug Denneny 22%-Gerry Connolly 13%-Lori Alexander 11%. Note that Connolly went on to win the primary by 25 points over Leslie Byrne, with Denneny and Alexander a distant 3rd and 4th. In other words, this straw poll was not accurate in the least bit in terms of predicting primaryelection outcomes.
2. The 2009 Mt. Vernon Dems’ straw poll had Brian Moran easily winning the three-way Democratic primary for governor (the other two candidates were Terry McAuliffe, who finished third in the straw poll, and Creigh Deeds, who finished second). In the actual results, of course, Creigh Deeds won the Democratic nomination, with Brian Moran in third place and Terry McAuliffe in second place. Also note that even in Fairfax County, Deeds won the actual primary easily, so again, this straw poll definitely did NOT predict the actual results.
3. The 2013 Mt. Vernon Dems’ straw poll had Aneesh Chopra crushing Ralph Northam 148-61 for lieutenant governor. In the actual primary, Northam beat Chopra 54%-46% statewide, as well as 54%-46% in Fairfax County. So…nope, the straw poll was not accurate at all.
4. The March 2014 Arlington Young Democrats straw poll for the Democratic nomination in VA08 had Patrick Hope winning with 57% of the vote (Hope , while the candidate (Don Beyer) who eventually went on to win the primary overwhelmingly (46%-18% over Patrick Hope) got only ONE VOTE in the straw poll. So…nope, this straw poll wasn’t even close to predictive of the actual primary results.
5. The March 2014 Mt. Vernon Dems’ straw poll for the Democratic nomination in VA08 did have Don Beyer winning, but only with 25% of the vote (he ended up winning the primary three months later with 46% of the vote), with Lavern Chatman finishing second in the straw poll (20%), and Patrick Hope third (19%). So at least this straw poll picked the eventual winner, although it badly missed the margin of victory, but it badly missed the second-place finisher (in the actual primary, Chatman finished sixth, with just 5% of the vote).
6. The May 2014 Dranesville Democrats straw poll for the nomination in VA08 had Patrick Hope wininng, followed by Mark Levine and Don Beyer. Again, Beyer ended up winning the primary easily, with nearly 50% of the vote, followed by Patrick Hope with 18% of the vote, Adam Ebbin with 13.5% of the vote, Bill Euille with 8% of the vote, and Mark Levine with 7% of the vote.
7. The 2020 Mt. Vernon Democrats Mardi Gras straw poll for president had Michael Bloomberg winning easily (with 63 votes – of which he bought 50 or so, lol), Amy Klobuchar finishing second (24 votes), Pete Buttigieg third (22 votes), Elizabeth Warren (18 votes), Bernie Sanders (14 votes) and Joe Biden (12 votes). Needless to say, those were NOT reflective of the 2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary results, which had Biden with 53%, Sanders with 23%, Warren with 11% and Bloomberg with 10%. Not even close…
8. The 2021 St. Patrick’s Day straw poll for Lt. Governor, in Fairfax, had Sam Rasoul with 33% of the vote, Elizabeth Guzman with 18%, Sean Perryman with 15%, Hala Ayala with 14%, etc. The *actual* results of the Democratic primary in June weren’t even close to this, as Ayala won easily with 38% of the vote, followed by Sam Rasoul with 24%, Mark Levine with 11%, Andria McClellan with 11%, Sean Perryman with 8%.
9. The 2021 straw poll for Lt. Governor, held by Del. Alfonso Lopez in Arlington, had “Elizabeth Guzman bested the field at 41 percent, followed by Sam Rasoul (19 percent), Sean Perryman (15 percent), Hala Ayala (11 percent), Andria McClellan (6 percent) and Xavier Warren and Mark Levine (4 percent each).” The ACTUAL primary results, a few months later, were not even close to this, as we just noted in the previous bullet (Hala Ayala won easily, followed pretty far behind by Sam Rasoul, and Elizabeth Guzman no longer a candidate…).
10. The 2021 straw poll for Lt. Governor, held by the Hunter Mill (Fairfax County) Democrats, were WILDLY wrong for both the Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor races. Per the straw poll, Terry McAuliffe finished a distant third, with just 11% of the vote, far behind Jennifer Carroll Foy (36%) and Jennifer McClellan (36%). In the actual Democratic gubernatorial primary in June, McAuliffe won with a massive 62% of the vote, followed far behind by Jennifer Carroll Foy (19.8%) and Jennifer McClellan (11.8%). So not even close. As for the Hunter Mill Democrats’ straw poll for Lt. Governor, that one also wasn’t even close, with Sam Rasoul winning 45% to Sean Perryman’s 22%, Elizabeth Guzman’s 17% and Hala Ayala’s 6%. Again, in the actual primary in June, Ayala won by a 14-point margin over Rasoul…

Of course, straw polls aren’t always wrong – for instance, the famous 2006 straw poll victory for Jim Webb over Harris Miller (noted above) and the 2017 Mt. Vernon Democrats straw poll (which had Ralph Northam and Justin Fairfax easily winning the governor and Lt. Governor straw polls, respectively — Northam 179-Perriello 55; Fairfax 186-Platt 30-Rossi 21) reflected the actual primary results, if not the margins. Also, in 2017, the Alexandria Democrats March 12 gubernatorial straw poll had it Northam 136-Perriello 76); Rep. Gerry Connolly’s St. Patrick’s Day gubernatorial straw poll had it Northam 78%-Perriello 22%; the Arlington Dems Blue Victory Dinner gubernatorial straw poll had it Northam 107-Perriello 57);  etc. Again, these were correct in terms of the order of finish, although not the margin (Northam ended up beating Perriello 56%-44% in the actual primary in June, a 12-point margin, which was solid, but not a 2:1 or 3:1 margin as in some of the straw polls!).

So, bottom line, take straw polls with a HUGE grain of salt, do NOT view them as being particularly accurate or predictive, and mostly just take them for what they are – fundraisers, usually fun, for local Democratic committees…

P.S. See here for Gerry Connolly’s St. Patrick’s Day straw poll, see here for the Mt. Vernon Democrats’ Mardi Gras straw poll, etc.