Yesterday, an Emerson College poll of the 2025 Virginia governor’s race had Democrat Abigail Spanberger up just 1 point over Lt. Governor Winsome Sears (R). Now, we have another new poll, this time by Mason-Dixon, which has “Earle-Sears trail[ing] Spanberger 44% to 47%, while holding a slight lead over U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, Newport News, with 46% to 44%.” So either way, a VERY tight race at this point, but obviously it’s super early, and a LOT can and likely WILL change between now and the fall. That includes Trump’s approval rating, which at this point we have no idea what it will be by September/October. My guess is that it will be much lower than it is right now, but who the hell knows. Regardless, as I argued yesterday, we absolutely should NOT get overconfident about this race, let alone take it for granted!
DOGE is dispatching agents across U.S. government (“Federal officials are already dealing with surrogates from Elon Musk’s and Vivek Ramaswamy’s nongovernmental body before Donald Trump is sworn in again.” UGH.)
Biden’s Tarnished Legacy (“He failed to grasp both the political moment and the essential mission of his presidency.” Agreed.)
Why ‘Late Regime’ Presidencies Fail (“The coalition collapse that doomed Biden follows a grim precedent set by another Democratic leader: Jimmy Carter.”)
On Tuesday, Virginia Democrats got some much needed good news, as they held SD32 and HD26 in eastern Loudoun County to maintain their narrow (21-19 in the State Senate, 51-49 in the House of Delegates) majorities in the Virginia General Assembly. Democrats also did better than expected in the GOP-held, “red” SD10 in Central Virginia.
It’s hard to make big conclusions based on these special elections, especially with a snowstorm perhaps leading to lower Election Day turnout. At the same time, these elections can offer some clues about Virginia elections going forward.
Loudoun Looking Up for Democrats
Loudoun County was one of the first indications as November 2024 election results started coming in that Democrats were going to have a rough night. In 2020, President Biden won Loudoun by 25%, but Vice President Harris only won it by 16% in 2024.
This big swing led to speculation that the special elections for State Senate and House of Delegates could be close, nd Governor Youngkin certainly made an effort to flip the seats red. That ultimately did not happen, with Democrats doing about 1-2% better in the special elections than Harris did in those districts in November 2024.
That is obviously good news for Democrats, especially as they tend to do worse in Virginia state elections compared to federal ones. At the same time, Democrats are still far from their 2020 high point in Loudoun County, and it’s clear that there is more work to do.
The Democrats elected in the special elections – Kannan Srinivasan for State Sente and JJ Singh for House of Delegates – both come from the growing Indian-American community in Loudoun. They ran campaigns focused on issues voters cared about and didn’t get bogged down by GOP attacks against them. Their campaigns provide a model for how Democrats can continue to do well in Loudoun and start building up their margins again in this critical county.
Central Virginia Opportunities
While Democratic nominee Jack Trammell still lost by nearly 18% in SD10, this is actually a significant improvement from the 27% loss that Harris experienced in the district in November. Most of Trammell’s gains came in the more suburban parts of the district along I-64.
Trammell was able to flip Fluvanna County blue, in the suburbs of Charlottesville, winning it by almost 13%, in a county that Trump won by 6%. Similarly, Trammell was able to keep both Goochland and the Hanover portion of the district close in the Richmond suburbs, losing both by around 6%. These are areas where Trump won by almost 20% just two months ago.
No doubt the snowstorm played a role and may have lowered GOP election day turnout. However, Central Virginia was one of the few places that Harris did relatively well, even doing better in Goochland in 2024 than Biden did in 2020.
As Northern Virginia seems to have reached its peak “blueness,” there is still plenty of room for Democrats to grow in Central Virginia. The suburbs along I-64 from Staunton in the west to Williamsburg in the east all are areas where Democrats can continue to expect gains in coming years.
The Party of Special Elections Now
It used to be that Democrats consistently struggled in Virginia special elections, famously almost losing a deep-blue seat in Alexandria in 2009. That was back when Democrats were more the party of low-propensity voters, that is voters who were unlikely to show up in off-year and special elections (but WERE likely to show up in presidential elections).
However, Trump’s election win was fueled by his strength with low-propensity voters, who helped power the GOP to victory, but who may not always show up for them. This dynamic might be part of the reason Democrats are now the party more likely to do well in special elections.
Virginia Democrats have been doing well in special elections going back to Aaron Rouse’s 2023 win in the special election to replace Rep. Jen Kiggans in the State Senate. The permanent absentee list also helps give Democrats an edge, as it is overwhelmingly Democrats on this opt-in list to receive a ballot in the mail every election.
Clues for November
The day after the November election, it was clear that these special elections would happen, as Suhas Subramanyam (D) and John McGuire (R) were elected to Congress (in VA10 and VA05, respectively). Given the election results, it seemed likely that SD26 in eastern Loudoun would be a closer race than SD10 in central Virginia.
But when the results came in, Democrats won the eastern Loudoun race by almost 23%, while they lost the central Virginia race by less than 18%. This shows that every election is unique and that the dynamics of each race must be taken into account.
So yes, things look bleak for Democrats right now after suffering a tough election loss in November, and Trump looking more popular than ever. Yet Virginia elections tend to swing against the party in power in Washington, giving Democrats an opportunity to rebuild in 2025.
The bottom line? Nothing is certain and Democrats should not take for granted that they are entitled to win in Virginia in 2025 because Trump will be in the White House. At the same time, it is important to remember that it will not be November 2024 forever, and voters have a tendency to move on from the last election.
See below for video, and a partial transcript, from this morning’s “Virginia Right to Contraception Act” roll-out press conference. The key point is that contraceptive rights are now VERY MUCH under threat – from MAGA Republicans, Project 2025, Donald Trump, etc. – which is why we need to protect them at the state level, including right here in Virginia. Last year, the General Assembly passed Sen. Ghazala Hashmi’s and Del. Cia Price’s “Right to Contraception Act,” but for absolutely no good reason, Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoed that legislation. So now, Youngkin will be given another opportunity to show where he stands, while Republican members of the General Assembly – including the delegates, all of whom are up for election this year – have a chance to tell voters (the vast majority of whom support guaranteed contraceptive access) where THEY stand on this issue!
Sen. Ghazala Hashmi: “Donald Trump said on the campaign trail last year that he was quote unquote looking at restrictions on contraception, while also suggesting that those restrictions would be left up to the states. He’s made similar pronouncements in his first term in office. And those pronouncements led to the disastrous Dobbs decision. I think we need to take him at his word. As unbelievable as it might seem, the right to contraception is under attack in this country. And we need to respond with serious efforts, because the quality of life and essential medical care for so many Virginians are all on the line. So today we’re sending a clear message that no matter what action we see from Donald Trump and his Supreme Court, Virginia will remain a beacon of reproductive freedom. And that’s why we must enshrine protections in our state code. Virginians deserve to rest easy knowing that even if this extremist court overturns Griswald v Connecticut, their access to FDA-approved contraceptions such as condoms, IUDs and Plan B will not go away. So last year we got the Right to Contraception Act passed through both the House and the Senate with a couple of of Republican votes as well, but then we were hit by a big roadblock, and that roadblock was Governor Glenn Youngkin – his veto signaled to us that he doesn’t care about the rights nor the critical medical concerns of Virginians. He vetoed the legislation even after we elevated and demonstrated statewide support through a press tour that included stops in Charlottesville, Harrisonburg and in Richmond. He vetoed the legislation even after we elevated and demonstrated statewide support by personally hand delivering thousands of signatures on petitions from Virginians calling on Governor Youngkin to sign the bill. So it’s clear that this administration is badly out of touch with regular Virginians. But that is not going to deter Democrats from doing what our constituents are calling on us to do, and that is to protect their rights and their freedoms. Our strategy is the same – continue to build public support and pressure to show Governor Youngkin that he cannot side with the most extreme wing of of his party on an issue that the strong majority of voters, both Democrats and Republicans, support. We can and we must protect Virginians’ right to contraception. We’re giving Governor Youngkin one more chance to join us to protect the rights that Virginians already enjoy, rather than to concede those rights in direct contradiction to what our constituents are asking for.”
Del. Cia Price (D-HD85): “Thank you for joining us this morning as Senator Hashmi and I announced the official reintroduction of the Virginia Right to Contraception Act to codify the right for Virginia to access contraception that they need. In 2024 across the country, voters resoundingly said yes to safeguarding their access to reproductive health care. In fact, in seven out of 10 states, ballot measures protecting this access passed and it
would have been eight if Florida worked off of a more fair majority rule versus their required 60% for passage. And let’s be clear, the only reason these ballot measures were even needed is because MAGA Republicans overturned Roe v Wade and sent the country into chaos as states passed some of the most restrictive bills ever impacting access to reproductive health care. As women across the nation grapple with the fallout from being treated as political footballs by these Republicans, we have to act to protect the rights we still have. And if we can’t trust the current composition of Congress to protect Virginians’ access to contraception, we must act at the state level. As was stated, last year the House and Senate passed these bills to codify the right to contraception for all Virginians and sent the bills to the governor’s desk. All he had to do was sign them and people’s rights would already be protected by now. But unfortunately, he ultimately vetoed the Right to Contraception Act. Tthis year, we are back with the same proposal. But a few things have changed since last January, like the increase in threats to contraception on
the federal level, the increase in number of people who need contraception so they can decide if and when to have a family, and an increase in the number of people who need access to contraception in order to deal with a multitude of health conditions. That’s why we’re here again, calling on the governor to this time side with the overwhelming majority of Virginia voters who want to see their right to contraception enshrined into law. These bills will get back to the the governor’s desk and he can use the power of his pen to sign them and protect people’s rights to use condoms, Plan B birth control pills and IUDs. Or he can use the power of his pen to remind Virginians the extremes to which some will go to control women’s bodies. So whether you need birth control pills to wait until the right time to have a child, or you need an IUD to treat symptoms of PCOS, or a myriad of other very personal and intimate reasons why people want and need contraception, delegates, senators and the governor will have another chance to show you once again where they stand on protecting your right to contraception.”
Jamie Lockhart from Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia: “Everyone deserves the opportunity to plan for their future. They deserve to decide whether or not to grow a family. They deserve the opportunity to manage the pain and sympoms of chronic diseases such as endometriosis and PCOS. But right now, right-wing extremists want to take that opportunity away from you and me. Right after graduating from high school, I found myself in a situation where I needed emergency contraception. Thankfully, I was able to access the emergency contraceptive I needed through Planned Parenthood. Like many of the thousands of patients who come to Virginia Planned Parenthood health centers, I wanted to know all the contraceptive options that were available to me when I was in that moment of panic. Today, so many Planned Parenthood patients come for this critical reliable medical information and feel comfortable doing so because they know their right to contraception is currently protected. But that right, as Senator Hashmi and Delegate price and Kenda have all spoken about, is now under real threat. In a few weeks, the man responsible for the fall of Roe v Wade will be sworn in for a second presidential term. He will serve alongside anti- reproductive freedom majorities in Congress and on the Supreme Court. And Donald Trump was clear on the campaign trail that he was interested in restricting access to contraception. For years, anti-abortion politicians have tried to gaslight us into believing they were not coming for Roe, but they did. And now they are eyeing the right to contraception…state governments could be the deciding factor on whether or not there is a protected right to contraception. And for Virginia Republicans who just last year tried to ban abortion, it wouldn’t surprise any if they tried to ban contraceptives too. Thankfully, reproductive freedom champion Senator Ghazala Hashmi and Delegate Cia Price are teaming up once again to ensure we can all plan our futures. The Virginia right to contraception act will get through the General Assembly this year, and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia are ready to once again hold Governor Youngkin and his administration accountable if he chooses to veto the measure once again.”
Sen. Hashmi: “If we take a look back at what Governor Youngkin said last year, he really threw up some red herrings about the
legislation. He indicated that he would not sign the bill because it imposed on religious freedoms of medical providers to provide contraception. And that’s simply not the case. This bill actually protects our medical providers, protects them from any kind of state actor that would seek to impose or limit the responsibility that medical providers have to care for their patients. And so when we protect what medical providers are already doing, this is something that we would enshrine in the Virginia code, despite what might happen at the national level. So these are medical responsibilities that are already exercised by our physicians and other medical provider communities, and this would protect them from any action that may may occur as a result of Supreme Court action against Griswald. So that is a red herring. And we strongly oppose what the governor was arguing last year. The bill has not changed. We didn’t see any need to change the bill; it was a very strong and effective piece of legislation last year, it passed with bipartisan support. It certainly has strong bipartisan support all across the Commonwealth. And we want to send the message to Governor Youngkin that he has one more chance to do the right thing and protect critical care, and certainly do so before we see any damaging federal actions occur.”
Del. Price: “I want us to remember that several of the governor’s veto statements served more as his value statements than actual
reactions to the actual bill. And so we already have other laws that govern paternal rights and parent rights. And we are looking to make sure that all Virginians have access that they and their medical providers say they need. And so our bills did not change current law on who can access contraception and how, but that the state nor localities can impede that access. And I just want to remind us too that last year the focus may have been on the national level, on potential personal ambitions or alliances, but we are presenting the bill saying let’s focus on Virginians. And if he wants to do that he’ll sign these bills.”
Sen. Hashmi: “Well I will share that um as we were uh discussing the legislation last year many of my Republican colleagues expressed privately their support for the legislation; they saw critical need for it and they were certainly told by individuals in their own family – their wives their daughters, their friends who said that this is a a critical legislation that protects essential medical care. And they wanted to support the legislation. They were told by the administration to tow the party line. But I’m hoping that after reflecting on what happened last year with the veto and certainly after taking stock of what the incoming Trump Administration is planning to do and has already declared it will do, that our Republican colleagues join us in expressing to the governor how strongly they feel that we need to protect the rights of Virginians and that this is a bill that absolutely moves us in the right direction. So I think we need even more strong bipartisan support to move the needle in the governor’s mind.”
Del. Price: “And on the House side of course you know that this is an election year and um sometimes folks won’t hide behind others they will have to look out for themselves and they have to go before the voter and say what they believe in and so I think uh there are some hard conversations that Republicans are going to have to have on the house side side uh with the governor and we
are just hoping that they will choose to center the voices that have been saying over and over that they would like to have their rights protected.”
Del. Price: “Will people decide that they are willing to put people over party people decide that they are willing to uh Center the voices of their constituents that need these rights protected that is what we will see in the coming days.”
Sen. Hashmi: “One thing we’ve seen consistently from the ex extreme rightwing is that there’s been a effort to conflate reproductive and contraceptive health care with abortion.
And what this bill clearly does is protect the rights to
contraception that millions of Americans and Virginians already enjoy and assume our protected rights. And so we are not introducing anything that is new or different. We are seeking to
protect and enshrine the rights that millions of Americans enjoy, that frankly millions of individuals across the developed world enjoy. And this is not something that should be seen as challenging in any way. I would hope that legislation like
this would pass on the uncontested calendar, showing full support of everyone in the General Assembly, because it is protecting rights protecting rights that so many of our constituents have asked for. And it is not challenging to uh vote yes on this legislation.”
Del. Price: “I think our votes tell the people what it is we stand for, who we stand for and who we’re fighting for and working on behalf. And so I think our votes are fair game [for political ads], because that’s the record that we are creating as incumbents going into this [election]. And I think the story needs to be told
and needs to be told very clearly who is working on behalf of people and who is not. And so this is one part of reproductive freedom and reproductive justice, but it is a very important part. And so I do think that you’ll hear more about this on the campaign trail.”
Del. Price: “I don’t think this is the time for Comfort um honestly I think every single woman that desires contraception needs to be wide awake and knowing that it is coming under fire. Just like
Janette has spoken with her story, I too have PCOS. I cannot sleep until I know that people like us, people that want to decide when and if to have a family, know that they will have the current access that they have today in the coming months, years and generations. And so I cannot offer any comfort until we get this done and until these rights are enshrined. And so if there’s anyone out there that is concerned and wanting to do the work that it’s going to take for us to get these rights enshrined in our code, we we ask that you tap in tap in to the work and reach out to your own legislators and let them know where you stand on this issue so that we can create that that public story that reflects that this is something that needs to happen and it’s something
that the governor needs to sign.
Sen. Hashmi: And I’ll just add, as Delegate Price just shared, we’re not really just talking only about contraception, we’re talking about critical medical care. And as millions of women who rely on access to these pills, these medications, these devices can testify, for so many of us this is what helps us make life bearable in certain circumstances. So many hours of work productivity are
lost every month for women who experience excruciating pain, who experience heavy menstrual cycles that incapacitate them and require that they stay at home because they simply can’t go to work or can’t go to school given the situation that they’re facing. And so having medication of this sort is essential for
millions and millions of Americans. And even minors use
contraceptive medications to manage the pain and get relief from menstrual cycles. It is just essential for so many individuals as uh all of us on the call here today recognize.”
First off, it’s still VERY early, people aren’t paying attention, hardly anybody knows the candidates well, etc. So take this with an appropriately sized grain of salt. [Also note: right now, as ridiculous as it is, Trump’s in a “honeymoon” phase, so his approval rating is higher than usual; we’ll see what it looks like by September, because that will play a HUGE role in who wins the Virginia governor’s race, and we really can’t control that variable…]
Having said that, I’d argue that in no way/shape/form should we take the 2025 Virginia governor’s race for granted. On a related note, in no way/shape/form should we underestimate Winsome Earle Sears or just assume that Abigail Spanberger will crush her, because Sears is an extremist, nutjob, whatever. Thus, unlike Spanberger herself, who says the governor’s race “certainly isn’t tighter than expected for me” and doesn’t appear worried, I’d argue that at this point, after Trump’s election, we should every much worry about elections, even ones that we SHOULD win on the merits (e.g., in this case, Spanberger would be infinitely better than Sears as governor).
“Support for Earle-Sears is found among male voters, who break for the Lieutenant Governor 52% to 37%, and white voters, who break for her 50% to 35%. Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70, who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30, who break for her 43% to 33%.” This is very much reminiscent of how support for Trump broke down in the 2024 presidential election, including big racial and gender gaps.
As always, the outcome of this November’s Virginia governor’s election will come down to TURNOUT, specifically which party’s “base” is more fired up. If you look back decades, that’s pretty much how it’s always been, with Virginia usually swinging hard for governor against whichever party’s in the White House. Thus, in 2009, Bob McDonnell (R) won the governor’s race by 17+ points just one year after Barack Obama won the White House, and won Virginia by 6 points; in 2017, Ralph Northam (D) won the governor’s race by 9 points just one year after Trump won the White House; in 2001 and 2005, Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won the governor’s mansion after George W. Bush won the White House; in 2021, Glenn Youngkin won the governorship a year after Joe Biden won the White House, and won Virginia by 10 points; etc. So yes, based on that history, yes, Democrats should win the Virginia governorship this November, but then again, based on the macroeconomic indicators, Democrats should have easily held the White House this past November, so who the hell knows anymore?
Your thoughts on this poll and on the Virginia governor’s race in general?
P.S. Of course, Spanberger and Sears aren’t even their parties’ nominees yet, and it’s still possible that either or both will face primary challenges, so we’ll see…
Trump shares inflammatory video with crude reference to Netanyahu (“Donald Trump has shared inflammatory video content calling Benjamin Netanyahu a ‘deep, dark son of a bitch’ just weeks after the Israeli leader claimed the two had a ‘very friendly, warm’ discussion about hostage negotiations and Syria policy.”)
Trump Allegedly Did a Town Hall That Was “Rigged”—in His Favor (“A new book claims Team Trump was fed questions in advance of a Fox News town hall last year. That would be rich considering Trump’s long history of claiming every debate is rigged against him.”)
See below for video and highlights from Sen. Tim Kaine’s speech earlier today on “birthright citizenship.” The bottom line, as Sen. Kaine explains:
“Trump’s plans to end birthright citizenship—a right enshrined in our Constitution—would hurt America. I’m on the Senate floor to highlight some of the notable Americans born to immigrant parents whose contributions have made an impact on our culture, government, and commerce.”
Birthright citizenship was “a legal guarantee designed to erase the horrible legacy of slavery that had been embodied in the Dred Scott v Sanford decision.”
Trump’s claim that the U.S. is “unique in the world in guaranteeing citizenship to all who are born in this country” is false (the US led the way, but there’s been a “global movement that many other countries have decided to embrace”).
“I believe the constitutional basis for birthright citizenship is clear, and those challenging the notion are mounting an argument with no legal basis.”
Birthright citizenship brings a great deal of good to America – “more than 47 million people living in the United States were born in another country, and another 16 million American children were born here to immigrant parents; currently, more than 25% of all American children live in a household where at least one of their parents is an immigrant.”
The statistics on crime are “compelling and longstanding” that “crime has DECREASED as immigration has increased.” In fact, the crime rate has fallen by 60% as the portion of our population that is immigrant has DOUBLED. Also, immigrants have ALWAYS been incarcerated at lower rates than native-born Americans. And a study on crimes in Texas found that “undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half of the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent crimes and drug crimes, and at less than a quarter of the rate of native-born citizens for property crimes.”
“Immigration is a plus for the U.S. economy…[CBO] estimates that immigration flows to the United States that are projected would likely increase American [GDP] by nearly $9 trillion between now and 2034.” “More than 45% of Fortune 500 companies in America were started by immigrants or by the children of immigrants.”
“Throughout our history, immigrants have tremendously benefited this nation, and that is not something that is suddenly turning from a positive to a negative.”
In Virginia, as the percent of immigrants has gone from 1% in 1958 to 1 out of 8 today “has coincided…with Virginia moving from bottom quarter per capita in income among American states to top quarter, and that movement has been signfiicantly advanced by talented people from around the world deciding that they wanted to make Virginia their home.”
“When America is at its best, the status of our parents doesn’t limit our ability to contribute to our community, and that’s part of the genius of our nation. I believe birthright citizenship…has really been a blessing to our country.”
“So many of our ancestors wanted to come to the United States because they would not be locked into a social status based upon their parents’ social status.”
Birthright citizenship is “a definitively New World concept” – “if you’re born in this country, you’re a U.S. citizen, doesn’t matter who your parents are, you have the same opportunities and responsibilites as anyone born in this country – it’s part of the genius of this country.”
“I’m going to vigorously defend the constitutional principle of birthright citizenship against any who try to dilute it or tear it down.”
I certainly haven’t agreed with everything Jennifer Rubin’s said over the years (e.g., when she used to be a conservative and write the “Right Turn” column in the WaPo) , but she really nails it in this video. The key points that jumped out at me are:
“I have to hand it to Vice President Kamala Harris, the dignity she displayed, the self-restraint was really a model.”
“I have a certain bone to pick with the president, and that concerns frankly the oped he wrote for the Washington Post, which I currently work for. He implored us to remember January 6. So far so good. He reminded us that this was an abomination, a violation of the tradition of a peaceful transfer of power. He talked about…democracy prevailing. The only thing he missed was President Trump. Amazingly the entire thing was written in passive voice, as if the mob had assembled itself…all of this omits the central role of Trump and the central role of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement. Why bother doing this if you’re going to exempt the people responsible for this heinous behavior?“
“Well, I have theories. One is that Biden doesn’t understand the difference between respecting the institution of the presidency that is the incoming presidency and the obligation to respect his victory, and the obligation that sometimes comes with that to also be completely candid honest and not cover up for your successor’s errors, whether they were in the past the future or the present. And in this effort to bend over backwards to treat Trump in a way he was not treated, he winds up enabling him covering him normalizing him.It was really pathetic and I use that word advisedly because that is the single adjective that I heard over and over again from Democrats…”
“And I think we get down to the central dilemma of the Biden presidency. On one hand he was absolutely the right person to manage the country coming out of COVID coming out of recession. He was able to push through a really impressive array of legislation. But he missed I think and part of this is age part of this is generation part of this is his breeding in the Senate he missed the central challenge which is to bring a knife to the knife fight which is to use every weapon available in the Arsenal of the bully pulpit to inform and remind people of who Trump is and what the message is that Trump is trying to convey which is fundamentally anti-democratic anti-American. And so he winds up defending some peculiar sort of 19th century sense of cordiality, of comity. And in the midst of an effort that we are all struggling with to remind people of the truth of January 6th, he actually makes things worse. And that makes me sad, it disappoints me. And once again it leaves me wondering, had he stepped away as he suggested he would during the campaign after a single term, given Kamala Harris a full primary and others a full primary whether we would not now be facing the return of Donald Trump which is a national tragedy.”
“…[the Trump presidency] is going to be bad and it’s going to reinforce the message that Democrats have to make, which is Republicans are the party of the billionaires and the big corporations who are now bending over backwards trying to please them, Democrats are the party of the…ordinary people, the average American, and Democrats have to make that message clear every single day.”
“So what do we do in the upcoming year? Well, I think there are several things we can all do: one is we do not get the luxury of exhaustion. I’m sorry, yes we were tired at the end of the year, you had your holiday, get back in the game! Democracy is not voluntary. If we want a democracy, if we want to maintain our basic fundamental freedoms, if we want to maintain an inclusive society, we have to work for it. Our leaders are not up to the task. We saw that with Biden. We’ve seen that with Dick Durbin. We’ve seen this time and time again. It’s us, we are the people who are going to have to combat the MAGA scourge over and over again. We’re the ones who are going to have to sound the alarm, are going to have to push lawmakers to object and to block initiatives we’re the ones who are going to have to encourage state and local officials to fill the gap. It’s not going to be anybody else. And frankly there are many many groups in this country, most especially, African-Americans who have never had the luxury of giving up on America,and despite the vile treatment that they have received over decades over centuries, they have not given up on this country. And none of us has the luxury of doing so.”
“I don’t think it’s worthwhile to watch hours or even an hour of cable TV news. It’s not productive. It’s annoying and it’s not informative, it is not helping you to become an advocate for democracy. I would be much more selective in the media you watch…”
“You’re not going to be able to change the world. I’m not going to be able to change the world in one day. But every day you should think about one thing you can do to promote democracy, to promote literacy in media, to reach out to neighbors, to make your community a little bit more functional. We’re going to have a very long road ahead but the good news is there really is a community of people, 50% of the electorate, and frankly if you count people who didn’t even bother to vote more than 50% of the country is with us. And those are the people we’re going to have to engage, those are the people we’re going to have to reach out to…”
UPDATE 7:51 pm: Per Sam Shirazi – “all votes counted tonight in Loudoun. Democrats overperform Harris margin by ~3% in both races. There will be a few more final mail ballots and provisionals. Should boost Dem numbers a little more, but nothing significant. Dem slide in Loudoun stopped at least tonight”
UPDATE 7:46 pm: With 55/57 precincts reporting in SD32, Kannan Srinivasan (D) is winning by a 61.2%-38.6% margin, with 29,647 votes counted so far. And in HD26, JJ Singh (D) is winning by a 61.3%-38.2% margin, with 9,967 votes counted. In SD10, Luther Cifers (R) is winning by a 58.2%-41.7% margin, with 15,022 votes counted so far.
*****
UPDATE 7:30 pm: Congrats to VA State Senator-elect Kannan Srinivasan!
UPDATE 7:24 pm: According to Loudoun County, with 51/57 precincts reporting, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan leads Republican Tumay Harding 13,459 (58.2%)-9,642 (41.7%) in SD32, and Democrat JJ Singh leads Republican Ram Venkatachalam 4,576 (58.0%) to 3,284 (41.6%). Looking good for both Kannan Srinivasan and JJ Singh to be joining the General Assembly shortly! 🙂
UPDATE 7:17 pm: With 6/11 localities reporting in SD10, Republican Luther Cifers leads Democrat Jack Trammell 56.7%-43.3%.
******************
See below for results from the special elections today in Virginia’s SD10, SD32 and HD26. The reason for these special elections is that the former State Senators from SD10 and SD32 – John McGuire (R) and Suhas Subramanyam (D) were both elected to Congress (in VA05 and VA10, respectively), and then Del. Kannan Srinivasan (D-HD26) was nominated to replace Subramanyam in the State Senate. So today, special elections were held for all three open seats, with the nominees as follows:
SD10 (Hanover, Powhatan, Louisa Goochland, etc.): Democrat Jack Trammell vs. Republican Luther Cifers
SD32 (Loudoun): Democrat Kannan Srinivasan vs. Republican Tumay Deniz Harding
HD26 (Loudoun): Democrat JJ Singh vs. Republican Ram Venkatachalam
Why these special elections matter is that both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates are very closely divided, with Democrats holding just a 21-19 majority in the Senate and a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates. So, in theory at least, these special elections could shift party control (if Democrats lost SD32 and/or HD26). However, that’s unlikely, given that both SD32 (went 59%-37% for Kamala Harris) and HD26 (went 59%-37% for Kamala Harris) are pretty solidly “blue” districts, while SD10 is pretty solidly “red” (went 63%-36% for Trump, so a Democratic win there would be a major upset).
The main reasons why there could be upsets in any of these races are related to the fact that special elections can be weird, particularly when there’s bad weather, such as an early-January snowstorm, making turnout highly unpredictable. Of course, a lot of voters these days cast their ballots early, and those tend to skew Democratic, so if turnout today was down due to the snowstorm, it actually could hurt Republicans disproportionately. That’s why it probably doesn’t make a ton of sense to draw major implications from these special elections for what might happen this coming November in the Virginia governor’s race, or over the next few years with Trump in the White House. Of course, that won’t stop the media from doing just that, because that’s how they roll…
Anyway, polls close at 7 pm as usual. I’ll live blog the results as they come in from the Virginia Department of Elections. Hopefully, we’ll know the winners pretty quickly.
Elon Musk, king of Europe? (“Can the billionaire bend European nations to his will? Keep an eye on upcoming elections in Germany.”)
South Korea’s Yoon faces new arrest attempt in fortified compound (“South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a new and potentially more robust attempt to arrest him for insurrection after a top investigator vowed to do whatever it takes to break a security blockade and take in the embattled leader.”)
The Anti-Social Century (“Americans are now spending more time alone than ever. It’s changing our personalities, our politics, and even our relationship to reality.” Really, really bad.)
