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Republican Rasmussen Reports: McAuliffe 50%-Cuccinelli 33%-Sarvis 8%

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Wow.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe has jumped to a 17-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia gubernatorial race following the federal government shutdown that hit Northern Virginia hard and Hillary Clinton’s weekend visit to the state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds McAuliffe with 50% support to Cuccinelli’s 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, while five percent (5%) remain undecided.

That’s by strongly Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports, no less. Amazing…honestly not sure what to make of this one.

Virginia Women’s Strike Force Hits Rick Santorum “Strikeforce” for Ken Cuccinelli

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From the Women’s Strike Force

WOMEN’S STRIKE FORCE ISSUES ALERT TO ALL VIRGINIA VOTERS

(Richmond, VA) The Women’s Strike Force, a bi-partisan Virginia political action committee (PAC) formed to preserve the progress women have made in the protection of their reproductive and health care rights, wants to alert supporters and all Virginia voters of an apparent attempt by right-wing conservative, Rick Santorum to confuse voters by initiating the call for a “Strikeforce” to help elect Ken Cuccinelli as the next Virginia Governor.

It is ironic that Santorum and members of the Tea Party’s Patriot Voices PAC would choose to enlist the use of the term “strikeforce” to rally Ken Cuccinelli supporters when it bears such a strong resemblance to the Women’s Strike Force, a Virginia organization whose mission is to challenge the outspoken extremists who voted to deny women the right to their own reproductive health care decisions.

WSF President, Katherine Waddell says, “Clearly the Women’s Strike Force is having an impact on the House campaigns to turn out incumbents who voted to restrict women’s reproductive health care choices. To date, the Women’s Strike Force has donated more than $60,000 for the 2013 House campaigns.”

“From now through this election and beyond, we will continue to raise funds, recruit volunteers and promote our mission to help elect legislators who will support women’s reproductive rights, and we invite others to join with us for this important cause,” says WSF Board Member, Margaret Vanderhye.

 

Behold: 2013 Now Guaranteed Historic Election Status

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By Paul Goldman

With billionaire Mike Bloomberg being invited to go “all-in” to support what the NRA and rural Virginia will paint as an “anti-gun” agenda, we at 200-proof believe the 2013 election goes from amazing to downright historic. In theory, the 3-way nature of the race might be the reason McAuliffe risks looking like he is going “left” at the end (while Cuccinelli is going hard “right” at the end). As the person most responsible for the Wilder-Warner model used by the only successful GUV candidates in the last generation (Kaine basically took the best aspects of both efforts  and added his unique personal appeal at the end debunking the Kilgore death penalty close), we at 200-proof can say this: the McAuliffe model is based on a different read of how you get the most votes in a Virginia GUV election, at least this year.

Again, it could be the presence of Sarvis, and a decision that the third-party joke candidate is going to take, on a net basis, a few points of independent-type folks who might otherwise have gone for Cuccinelli. Thus, this would mean that Sarvis isn’t going to collapse; he can get 6-8% if not more: and thus 47% wins.

Under that scenario, the polls make the following clear: McAuliffe can win with a solid Dem GOTV effort that makes the electorate a few more points Dem over GOP, as opposed to the +4 GOP margin in 2009. With Cuccinelli the most unpopular GOP GUV guy among Democrats EVER, this means McAuliffe can win by just doing what the polls say can happen – ride a good Dem turnout to victory. Under these assumptions, McAuliffe doesn’t need the traditional swing, independent voters thought to decide Virginia elections.

Why not? Because those voters aren’t available to Cuccinelli this year in the numbers needed to win under that scenario. Cuccinelli’s strategy – also historic, but from the right side of the game – seems to likewise suggest closing with the usual pitch to less partisan, more middle-of-the-road voters is likewise not an option for him.

HISTORY IN THE MAKING

Bill Clinton would not have been asked to make a 3-day GOTV tour of the state in the past, even if he had his high favorable rating. Why not? Because on a net, net basis, he has to pitch the whole Dem ticket, and this could be seen as perhaps rousing the sleeping conservative voters who show little energy for Cuccinelli. To be sure, the former President has a lot of cover with independents, but he isn’t coming to Virginia to convince them — the persuasion message is over in that regard. Clinton is here to give a big GOTV message to Democrats.

Any doubts in that regard are removed by Mayor Bloomberg being asked in to spend huge sums backing up McAuliffe’s stance on the gun issue. The Wilder-Warner model is geared at not arousing the NRA and the GOP rural, small-town base into thinking that they there is a culture war going on, and they had best vote. A loss in the rural areas is fine in that model, as long as it is within certain parameters. The trouble with the Deeds strategy is that his campaign misread the Wilder-Warner model, and thought they could get a bigger vote in “Deeds Country.” NOT! The trick is avoiding a tidal wave in those “downstate” areas, as they might say in Illinois.

The whole “gun control” label is misreading for sure, but political shorthand is what it is. If you spend your campaign complaining, it is a waste. Better to state your views and trust the voters.  But Bloomberg is a special case, since he has feuded openly with Governor McDonnell and other Republicans as the Northern carpetbagger coming to Virginia to impose his values on us. That is to say: Bloomberg’s presence risks turning the thing into a culture issue, not a gun issue.

The Wilder-Warner model would have never allowed Bloomberg in. Indeed, it would likely again have kept Clinton out too. Today, though, NOVA DICTATES STATE POLITICS – and the “gun control” message has always polled well in NOVA generally, and with many suburban women around the state.

If you assume – and it is good assumption – that Democrats have actually hit close to bottom in rural, small-town GOP Virginia, than a more pro “gun control” message might have more upside than downside, all other things being equal. This is especially true if you assume that 47% wins.

CUCCINELLI GOES RIGHT

Clearly, the Cuccinelli campaign has abandoned the Allen-Gilmore-McDonnell model of ending the campaign as close to the middle as possible. In the end, they were going for more independent voters; they weren’t running a “double down” on the base closing message. The GOP doesn’t have a Bill Clinton to carry the GOTV torch. So instead, Cuccinelli’s campaign has been hosting every person from another state it thinks might appeal to some part of their conservative base. Again, the Cuccinelli campaign is closing with a GOTV message, not a persuasion message. This seems consistent with their view of low turnout and polling showing their voters more likely to be true believers than lukewarm.

HISTORIC ELECTION

We at 200-proof don’t judge, we just call the action on the field. Back when McAuliffe got nominated, he was expected to follow the Wilder-Warner model, run as the moderate business dude, no drama on the cultural issues, yada, yada, yada. This seemed especially attractive against Cuccinelli. We predicted, while others were saying Cuccinelli was a “sure” winner, that it would produce a Democratic sweep.

But this is clearly not the strategy here at the close, when you bring Bloomberg into the state with such a huge TV presence. There is no way to do this without accepting the risk that it makes a culture issue bigger at the end, contrary to the Wilder-Warner model. Thus, a new model, a more regional model, based on the fact that NOVA is now so big, that the “gun” issue may have indeed flipped, that it is better on a net-net basis to drive Dem GOTV and persuade independent leaning Republicans in NOVA toward Terry than downstaters toward Ken.

If you believe Dems have hit bottom in those areas anyway, then it is seen as a pure upside play. It didn’t work for Mary Sue Terry in 1993, but that was a lifetime ago. Deeds got crushed in rural “Deeds country” in 2009, so you really don’t have much hope of any gains there, but also little fear of hurtful losses either.

BOTTOM LINE:  As we have previously written, Terry’s strategy has been a lot edgier on key issues than the Wilder-Warner model would advise. Now, with a Clinton GOTV march and a Bloomberg TV buy, it is time to call this an historic election by any measure, two-way, three-way, whatever. This is doubly true since Allen-Gilmore-McDonnell would have moved toward the middle in response. But Cuccinelli has instead gone hard the other way for weeks now, and is going even harder toward a GOTV base message, not a pitch to persuade independents.

With, again, the caveat that we could be wrong as to the Sarvis effect on all these strategy calculations, it seems to us at 200-proof that 2013 is now an historic election.  What to look for in our view: watch the AG race. Cuccinelli and Jackson are gone. But this history being made has to also play out at the Attorney General level.

Bloomberg, more than his gun views, is a lightning rod. McDonnell has tangled with the New York billionaire, telling him to stay out of Virginia. In years past, this could have been used to make Bloomberg’s presence less about guns and more about a cultural divide that helps the GOP or at least used too.  McAuliffe’s strategy, as we pointed out recently, is far bolder in historic terms than the media has written. The Clinton/Bloomberg tandem is just further proof of our thesis.

If our sweep prediction holds, then 2013 could be an historic re-figuring of Virginia politics due to NOVA growth reaching a political tipping point. The Sarvis factor will make it harder to determine in terms of hard proof.  But gut wise, it does seem to have all that potential if Democrats sweep, which is how it would come down based on all trend lines today.  

Video: Mark Herring Ad Highlights What VA Newspapers Are Saying About Mark Obenshain

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“Our latest ad highlights what news organizations are saying about Mark Obenshain – that he is going to continue Ken Cuccinelli’s ideological agenda, focused on telling women what they can and can’t do with their bodies,” said Kevin O’Holleran, campaign manager for Democratic candidate for Attorney General Mark Herring. “Virginians are tired of the extreme Tea Party approach of Mark Obenshain and Ken Cuccinelli. Mark Herring will take the politics out of the office and put the law – and Virginians – first.”

Virginia News Headlines: Tuesday Morning

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Here are a few Virginia and national news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, October 22. The election’s in exactly two weeks; now’s the time to start reminding every Democrat and anti-Cooch/Jackson/Obenshain independent you know to vote on November 5. Also, you might want to start thinking about when you’re going to vote, make sure you have your voter card, etc. Remember, whoever turns out for elections wins. Let’s make sure that’s us this time.

*Poll finds major damage to GOP after shutdown (“An overwhelming majority say the budget dispute exposed deep divisions between the tea party and other Republicans while damaging the economy, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll”)

*The Health Site’s Chaotic Debut (“Many Congressional Republicans are eager to exploit the start-up problems as evidence that health care reform is doomed to failure and ought to be delayed. They ignore the fact that Republican-led states contributed to the start-up problems by refusing to set up their own exchanges and dumping the task on the federal government.”)

*Pope Francis describes ‘ideological Christians’ as a ‘serious illness’ within the Church (Wow. Best Pope ever?)

*Cuccinelli unsure he would have voted for compromise that ended shutdown (An answer sure to piss of everybody – the teahadists who think Cuccinelli should say “yeah, shut it down forever!” and the vast majority of Virginians who strongly disapprove of the Republican shutdown. #FAIL)

*Ken Cuccinelli’s Last Stand in the Virginia Governor’s Race (“Two weeks before Virginia voters choose their next governor, the Republican is lagging in the polls-and struggling with questions about the government shutdown.” Pathetic.)

*Cuccinelli calls for Obama to fire Sebelius over health care rollout (Why doesn’t Cuccinelli run for Congress, since obviously he cares a LOT more about what’s happening in Washington than about Virginia?)

*In Clinton Fund-Raising, Expect a Full Embrace

*Subtracting and Adding to the Voter Rolls (“At about the same time last week that Gov. Bob McDonnell was restoring the rights of felons to vote, the State Board of Elections was removing voters from local voting lists across the state. The odor of politics is much stronger in the actions taken by the elections board. With respect to the general elections coming up in two weeks, the timing couldn’t be worse.”)

*AP fires reporter, editor over McAuliffe error

*The Richmond Times-Dispatch’s non-endorsement – and what it means (“… its editorial board reliably backs GOP candidates. Which means its non-endorsement is rightly read as a negative commentary on the candidacy of state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.”)

*Nguyen: Virginia’s voter purge must stop

*Terry McAuliffe’s wife appeals to female voters in Lynchburg

*Mounting tension in Virginia House’s 33rd district race (“LaRock, a hard-line Republican who defeated longtime incumbent Del. Joe T. May in a startling upset in the Republican primary, is battling Daniel, a self-described moderate Democrat, in a district that is historically conservative.”)

*House Republicans discuss SOL reforms, other education proposals

*Medicaid panel reviewing reform proposals

*Study Va.’s ABC (“The most recent directives on the agency’s law enforcement procedures don’t signal much change”)

*Ken Cuccinelli: Let county and local officials make transportation decisions (And the money is going to come from where exactly? Would Cooch let localities also raise gasoline taxes, for instance, to pay for the transportation “decisions” they make? Hmmmm.)

*Cuccinelli puts Metro extension to Dulles on notice (“Says he’s not open to covering project’s cost overruns”)

*First female sheriff of Fairfax County could emerge from November election

*Two more companies aim to bring train service to Va. Beach

*Showers, much colder temperatures arrive late today in advance of major cold front cooling

Beyond Parody: Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum to Cuccinelli’s Rescue!

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Over the past few weeks, Ken Cuccinelli has not only NOT moved to the center politically, he’s lurched far, far, far to the hard right. Thus, we’ve seen him bringing in the likes of Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Mark Levin, the Duggars, Pam Bondi, etc, etc. Now, it’s gone beyond parody, with this story:

Former Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum announced over the weekend that he would be heading to Virginia with a “Strikeforce” to help save Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli’s struggling campaign.

In a tweets on Friday and Saturday, Santorum asked followers to join the so-called “Strikeforce” being organized by his Patriot Voices political action committee.

No way, seriously? Rick Santorum? This guy?

*”So, everybody has the right to be happy? … So, if you’re not happy unless you’re married to five other people, is that OK?

*”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money.”

*”President Obama wants everybody in America to go to college. What a snob.”

*”To say that people of faith have no role in the public square? You bet that makes me want to throw up…And that should make every American [throw up].” (“regarding former President John F. Kennedy’s famous 1960 speech advocating for the separation of religion and politics.”)

*”One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country.”

And don’t forget these quotes either:

*”That’s not to pick on homosexuality. It’s not, you know, man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be.”

*””Many of the Christian faith have said, well, that’s OK; contraception is OK. It’s not OK. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.””

*”I think the Democrats are actually worried he [Obama] may go to Indonesia and bow to more Muslims.”

*”Is anyone saying same-sex couples can’t love each other? I love my children. I love my friends, my brother. Heck, I even love my mother-in-law. Should we call these relationships marriage, too?

*”…all the people who live in the West Bank are Israelis, they’re not Palestinians. There is no ‘Palestinian.”

*”Look at the political base of the Democratic Party: it is single mothers who run a household… if you want to reduce the Democratic advantage, what you want to do is build two-parent families, you eliminate that desire for government.”

*Gay marriage “is an issue just like 9/11.”

*”The idea that the Crusades and the fight of Christendom against Islam is somehow an aggression on our part is absolutely anti-historical. And that is what the perception is by the American left, who hates Christendom.”

So, yeah, the guy’s completely extreme and completely, bat**** crazy. And of course he’s coming to the “rescue” of his ideological soulmate, Ken Cuccinelli. What could be more natural? On the other hand, what could be more natural than every sane person in Virginia turning out in droves on November 5 to vote against this ticket of freakazoids, extremists, and tinfoil-hat nutjobs?

Cuccinelli does not understand Virginia legislative process

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You would think the currently sitting Virginia Attorney General would know the Virginia Constitution. If a Virginia Governor refuses to sign a bill it automatically becomes law. If Terry McAuliffe refuses to sign a budget bill, the bill approved by the General Assembly automatically becomes law.

Speaking with reporters in Sterling today, Ken Cuccinelli accused Terry McAuliffe of threatening to shutdown Virginia government by not signing a budget bill. Anyone with basic knowledge of Virginia government and the Virginia Constitution knows that is a falsehood.

Each year bills are passed by the General Assembly and become law without the signature of the Governor. Generally, that happens when the Governor does not want to add his blessing to the bill (or potentially budget bill) but does not feel strong enough to either amend or veto the bill.

Terry McAuliffe is rightly accused of not having a background in Virginia governance or knowledge of the Virginia legislative process. Seems to me that Ken Cuccinelli is in the same boat.

Negative Reaction Pours in to AP’s Firing of Bob Lewis, Dean of the Virginia Political Press Corps

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The reaction to the AP’s absurd firing of Bob Lewis, a great reporter and the super-respected dean of the Virginia political press corps, pours in. And none of it is supportive of the AP, from what I can tell. My reaction: this is a ridiculous, wild overreaction by a “news” organization that makes mistakes – including egregious ones – all the time, yet doesn’t fire the reporters involved. Also, I’d point out that it’s not just the AP; the media makes tons of mistakes and almost NEVER fires a reporter because of them, even though many richly deserve to be fired for incompetence, ineptitude, false equivalence laziness/cowardice, etc. (e.g., see this guy, who should have been fired years ago!). So now the AP fires Bob Lewis over one bad mistake? You must be freakin’ kidding me!!!

*Former Rep. Tom Perriello: “Big loss to fire @APBobLewis. Few know VA politics as well. We respect/fear him b/c he knows his stuff. Everyone has a bad day.”

*DNC Communications Director Mo Elleithee: “As someone who has known & worked with @APBobLewis for 13 years, I can say he’s 1 of the best in the biz. BIG loss for Virginia… & the AP.”

*Sen. Mark Warner: “AP’s Bob Lewis has been a fixture at the Va Capitol and his reporting will be missed by Virginians. Best wishes at a tough moment, Bob.”

*Bob McDonnell’s Communications Director Tucker Martin“If journalism had a draft @APBobLewis and @DenaPotterAP would be early 1st round picks. Huge talent now available media outlets: AP’s loss”

*Washington Examiner reporter Steve Contorno: “Hard to imagine that @APBobLewis’ error was worse than the AP reporters that botched Boston reports and got to keep their jobs.”

*NY Times/former Wash. Post Virginia political reporter Michael Shear: “I’m all for accuracy. But I’m damn hard pressed to see how AP did the right thing firing @APBobLewis, who has long championed that value.”

*Tim Kaine Chief of Staff Mike Henry: “Fire @APBobLewis !?  Over a mistake that was pulled back & apologized 4 That’s BS. Bob u r a champion.  AP’s loss. Move on with head up BL”

*Virginian Pilot political reporter Julian Walker: “At a loss for words on @APBobLewis & @DenaPotterAP. Quality people & journalists.”

*Gov. Bob McDonnell: “@apboblewis and @denapotter have always been fair, tough and smart. Virginians deserve dedicated reporters like them.”

*Washington Post Metro columnist Robert McCartney: “@benpershing I agree. Suspension and reprimand should have been sufficient. Bob Lewis’s record over many years should have counted for more”

*Sen. Tim Kaine: Big loss for Virginia. @APBobLewis is an even-handed, talented reporter & a class act.

*McAuliffe campaign says: “We’ve consistently said this story is water under the bridge and did not ask for any actions to be taken against those involved…We have had a professional relationship with Bob Lewis, Dena Potter and the rest of AP’s Virginia team during this campaign.”

*Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling: “Sorry to see the AP fire Bob Lewis. Bob is one of the most respected reporters in Richmond. We all make mistakes. Bob did not deserve this.”

*Head of Sorensen Institute Bob Gibson: “I’ve known and worked with Bob Lewis for decades.  AP decision was wrong.  Bob is one of the best journalists in Virginia, deserves better.”

Thrilled by the Transformation I Perceived in President Obama this Morning

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( – promoted by lowkell)

I was a huge fan of Obama’s for the year before his inauguration. Much of the time since the first few months of his presidency, I’ve been intensely frustrated and disappointed by what I see as his weakness in dealing with an opposition determined to make him fail, regardless of the damage to the nation. Today, I believe I saw something that says he’s undergone a real and basic transformation, a movement into a place of deep strength.

The way he stood his ground during the recent standoff with the Republicans in Congress showed he’d learned a lesson. That’s important, but it doesn’t necessarily show a transformation: the idea that “this time we don’t pay ransom to hostage-takers” can represent a decision, undertaken at a level of conscious strategy, and does not necessarily show a deeper movement of heart and soul away from weakness and into a place of strength.

But here the President was, talking about his signature accomplishment precisely because of the problems that have beset its launch, and the President seemed to be strong in a way that comes from the core, strong in a way that I’ve not seen much in the past.

In the past, I’ve often thought that he was good at ACTING as if he was strong, but that he didn’t really own that strength. Today I felt that here was a man who had settled into the fact that he is President of the United States, that he can prevail over his enemies, that he can make good things happen, that he is comfortable in the possession of not only the power of his office but also his inner power.

Admittedly, this is but an intuition– it’s me processing the intangible clues that one person can read as another is expressing the state of his being. Admittedly also, what I believe I saw today might not be a permanent transformation.

But I’d bet at 2:1 odds that what I saw was real, and that it represents a real shift in the president’s possession of the deeper powers of his self. And that shift, if it is real, is wonderful news for America.

You can judge for yourself. The video of his talk can be seen above.

Video: $10,000 Donor to Mark Obenshain Says Liberalism Leads to Nazism

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Seriously, you really can’t make this stuff up. Just ask yourself why this Vicious Homophobe, Misogynist, Theocratic Extremist Pat Robertson Gave $10,000 to Mark Obenshain. Perhaps because Robertson believes that Obenshain shares his ideology? Other theories? Also note that this raving lunatic Robertson has donated over $730,000 to Virginia Republicans over the years, yet none of them (to my knowledge) have ever denounced his extremist, bigoted views. Hmmm.