From American Bridge:

Last night, State. Sen. Dick Black was a special guest at a Leesburg fundraiser for Ken Cuccinelli. As you know, Black caused jaws to drop when he made headlines earlier this year for comparing abortion to the Holocaust on the floor of the Senate.

With Cuccinelli and EW Jackson infamously comparing abortion to slavery and the KKK, it’s no surprise they’d turn to Senator Black with help raising money to further their extreme and divisive social agenda. Once again, the Cuccinelli-Jackson ticket has shown they’re simply too extreme for Virginia.

P.S. Also check out Dick Black’s unhinged rant against gays in the military, in which he refers to “two homosexuals lurking — they were also basic trainees – and they strangled him with a towel and forced him to submit to, you know, things that we won’t talk about on the air.” And don’t forget Dick Black on “spousal rape,” “nighties,” etc. The bottom line is that Dick Black is as insane and extreme as they come, and THIS is who Ken Cuccinelli’s allied with. Shuddddderrrrrr…

From the McAuliffe campaign:

To: Interested Parties
From: Brennan Bilberry, McAuliffe Communications Director
Memo: After Tea Party Shutdown, Virginia Voters Looking for Bipartisan Problem Solver 

The economic impact of the government shutdown in Virginia cannot be overstated. As home to hundreds of thousands of federal workers, contractors and facilities, Virginia’s economy is uniquely affected by lapses in federal operations. Unlike some other parts of the country, a shutdown in Virginia is deeply personal – many Virginians are either furloughed themselves or know someone who is. 

Over the past two weeks, the news coverage in Virginia has focused on Ken Cuccinelli’s refusal to speak out to protect Virginia jobs and his campaign appearance with Ted Cruz, the architect of the shutdown. 

For voters, the shutdown also highlights the very different approach of the two candidates for governor and illustrates in a very real way the kind of dysfunctional government Virginia would face if Cuccinelli were elected.

Now more than ever, voters are looking for a mainstream problem-solver who will work with both parties as Gov. Mark Warner did.

And, in this race, Virginia voters have already determined by large margins that they trust Terry McAuliffe on the issue of bringing people together and breaking through gridlock.

The wide gap on which candidate will work in a bipartisan manner has been driven by a number of events: 

• Virginians have seen literally hundreds of television and print stories about the support McAuliffe has earned from prominent Republicans.

• Earlier in the year, voters saw bipartisan consensus – including McDonnell, Bolling, McAuliffe and both parties in the legislature – on a comprehensive transportation plan. At the same time, there were 33 broadcast television stories that specifically mentioned Cuccinelli’s opposition to the bipartisan plan and attempts to derail it.

• During the campaign and his time as Attorney General, Cuccinelli has spent a significant amount of time emphasizing the fights he has started. Voters know and have been reminded of how Cuccinelli tried to drive mainstream Republicans out of the party and how his policy agenda has been the source of many of the most divisive battles in Virginia over the past several years. 

A Tea Party government shutdown – and Ken Cuccinelli's decision to campaign with its architect – highlights everything that voters know and dislike about Cuccinelli: He puts his personal ideology ahead of what is best for Virginia, he divides Republicans and demonizes Democrats, and he’s willing to use any means necessary to advance his extreme policy agenda.

From the Mark Herring for Attorney General campaign:

The Mark Herring for Attorney General campaign responded to Senator Obenshain’s negative attack ads today by releasing their latest television ad titled “Wrong Turn.” The ad highlights the Obenshain/Cuccinelli record of punishing women for making their own, private health care decisions.

The ad focuses on the 2007 “Personhood” bill, co-sponsored by Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain, that would ban common forms of contraception and outlaw abortion, even in cases of rape and incest.

“Like Ken Cuccinelli, Senator Obenshain has spent his entire career in the state Senate trying to punish women for making their own, private health care decisions,” Mark Herring stated. “Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain believe politicians in Richmond should dictate to women what they can and cannot do with their bodies, and they have the record to prove it. Virginia women can’t trust Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain.”

At a Ken Cuccinelli press conference this morning in Abingdon to discuss Terry McAuliffe’s stance on EPA air regulations, the Virginians for Clean Government – “a group of about 40 southwest Virginians speaking out against Cuccinelli” – was out in force (see photo) protesting Cuccinelli’s conflict of interest with Pittsburgh-based natural gas company CONSOL Energy. Linda Skeens of Coeburn, Virginia – whose husband is a coal miner – is one of the group’s leaders and planned to ask Cuccinelli if he will return the $100,000 he’s received in contributions from CONSOL or step down as AG. Knowing Cuccinelli, I wouldn’t recommend that Mrs. Skeens hold her breath waiting for any answers; more like “no no no!” is all we ever get from Cooch.

By the way, on the EPA’s proposed regulations on new coal-fired power plants (which there won’t be any of regardless, due to competition from natural gas, wind, energy efficiency, solar, etc.), Cuccinelli isn’t just wildly wrong on the policy (see here for more on that), he’s also wrong on the politics. Just last night, we learned that a plurality of Virginians SUPPORTS the EPA, not Ken Cuccinelli and his fossil fuel puppet masters.

P.S. You can click on the image to “embiggen” it.

I just got off a conference call with Democratic Attorney General candidate Mark Herring and Grace Han Wolf – a Herndon Town Councilwoman and small business owner (Clay Cafe Studios of Chantilly, Inc.). The call’s purpose was to highlight Mark Obenshain’s opposition to measures that would benefit women- and minority-owned businesses across the Commonwealth. According to the Herring campaign:

In 2010, a state-sponsored study concluded that Virginia is failing to take advantage of services and products offered by women-owned and minority-owned businesses. Women and minority-owned businesses have the ability to earn over 20% of state contract money, but currently are earning less than 3%. In 2011, women in Virginia earned roughly $13,000 less each year than their male counterparts. Median income for Virginia women was around $41,000 compared to $55,000 for men. And Virginia women earned 78 cents for every $1 earned by their male counterparts.

Here are some highlights from the call.

*Sen. Herring emphasized the “stark differences” between himself and Sen. Obenshain. According to Herring, Obenshain would be “more of the same” as Ken Cuccinelli, “two peas in the pod.”  

*Referring to the study noted above, Herring said that ensuring fairness should be a top priority for the state’s Attorney General. Herring promised that as Attorney General, he will use the powers of the office to create jobs and ensure fairness in the marketplace for consumers, businesses, and workers, and to put women-owned and minority-owned businesses on a level playing field when competing for state contracts. Herring also promised to continue to support legislative efforts to expand protections for victims of pay discrimination.

*Herring concluded that “in stark contrast to Tea Party Republican Mark Obenshain, I have a proven record of addressing issues of economic fairness in Virginia; women and minorities can trust that I will use the resources of the office of Attorney General to continue supporting their businesses and economic viability in the state…and ensuring equal pay for equal work.”

*Grace Han Wolf said that Obenshain’s record of opposing equal pay for women speaks for itself, and “there’s no way women in Virginia could ever trust Mark Obenshain.” For instance, Obenshain spoke out against a state program to encourage awarding contracts to women and minorities, also voted against a bill to have Virginia consider women- and minority-owned businesses for state contracts.

*In stark contrast, Wolf pointed out that Herring is strong on pay equity and preventing pay discrimination. Wolf concluded that Herring also is strong on business and committed to growing the economy.

by Paul Goldman

To sweep, or not to sweep, that is the question. This column should be read with The Beatles in the background singing “with a little help from my friends.” Yes, my lonely prediction, back in the Spring, of the first Democratic sweep since Wilder-Beyer-Terry in 1989, is now being seen by the “gurus” as based on sound predictive analysis.  Because the “gurus” don’t ever want to be wrong, they almost always take the “conventional wisdom” line, and in Virginia, the conventional wisdom is this: Republicans are a lock for AG unless Democrats win a Robb ’81 or Baliles ’85 like-size win for Governor.

On the surface this seems true, since Baliles and Robb rank #1 and #2 for the size of a Dem GUV win. I believe Robb did around 53.5% and Baliles came in at 55%, carrying all of the state’s congressional districts. In those years, Baliles, running for AG on the Robb ticket, won a narrow victory. In 1985, Mary Sue Terry, at the time the perfect candidate for Virginia, got north of 60% in her first successful run for AG. Otherwise, in the modern two-party era, the other Dem AG candidates – all men – have all lost.

However, this conventional wisdom from Dr. Sabato and others hangs on a thin reed: namely, Creigh Deed’s photo finish loss by the proverbial nose to Bob McDonnell in the 2005 AG’s race. Had Deeds won, then there would be no Sabato et al thesis, at least as is.

But Kaine’s two-party vote was less than Robb’s, so the basic thesis would seem to be: If a Dem candidate for Governor gets north of 53% in a hypothetical two-way race, then the Dem AG candidate should win. At 52% or less, it becomes progressively more iffy. It is a thesis that fits the two-party era evidence for a non-incumbent on the Dem ticket for AG when you take out Mary Sue Terry’s historic first-ever win for a female statewide candidate. She ran a perfect race and was probably the perfect candidate for that point in time.

How valid is this thesis? There is no way to know, and more over, no time to have a big yada, yada, yada, over it. The 200-proof bottom line: We have the courage of our convictions, and thus say the first Dem sweep is likely….IF….IF… Terry and Ralph do something that has not happened in the modern two party era: a proactive, issue-oriented, UP FRONT AND PERSONAL Democratic ticket campaign.

 

I am not talking about more GOTV. We got plenty. What I am saying is this. As first predicted here on Blue Virginia last year, Mr. Cuccinelli may very well prove unelectable. His campaign guru, Chris LaCivita, sold him a losing strategy. Indeed, the shutdown is probably Chris’ best news since if you read Politico, he is already getting ready to say they would have won but for the shutdown! Clever boy, heading for the exit first when you have a seeming excuse. Who can blame him? It’s the game.

The polls are clear for a month now: Cuccinelli’s Ahab-like obsession over the state’s anti-sodomy law is a metaphor for his public image and thus campaign. END of story.

But there is still no no evidence that when all is said and done, Terry will get north of 52% in a two-way race. The three-way numbers, and rightly so, are getting the attention since the joke campaign of Robert Sarvis may actually have some legs. BUT the two-way numbers are key for this reason: the LG and AG’s races are two-way contests, there is no third party candidate in those races.

Despite the two-way numbers in the Northam-Jackson race being within the margins of polling error, we at 200-proof have great confidence in the people of the Commonwealth. Senator Northam doesn’t seem to be all that comfortable with the negative attack side of the political game. But he has no choice at this point, and his consultants have been through the fire enough to know they have to “do what they have to do.”

Fortunately, E.W. (He…said what!!???!!) Jackson keeps talking, as opposed to campaigning in his Marine uniform and playing the American soldier fighting for our values. He would still lose, but it might be shockingly close. MEANING:  For the first time EVER in the modern era, Republican AG nominee Mark Obenshain is really up the creek with only his own paddle. IF EVER A DEMOCRAT COULD COMPLETE A SWEEP, it should be in 2013.

However, the nature of today’s media (what media?) works to make the AG’s race politically invisible to the voters. Thus, if there is something to the thesis that Republican AG’s have some statistical advantage due to the leanings of an off-year GUV electorate, then all the craziness at the top of the GOP ticket, indeed down to the LG level, MAY NOT AUTOMATICALLY DOOM OBENSHAIN.

Surely the Mary Washington University and Hampton University polls show that. So at 200-proof we say: It doesn’t matter if this seems illogical this year, or if the Sabato thesis relies on a few hundred extra votes for McDonnell. The point is: All the evidence is that Herring will under-perform Terry and Ralph, even if he ran the most brilliant campaign ever. And you can’t just wish the evidence away at this point.

Now the Politico Poll has Terry at 52% in a two-way race. That’s right, the same 52% marker we discussed above. Accordingly, the polls suggest that if the national GOP comes in at the end to help save Cuccinelli from Mr. LaCivita’s determination to lose by a landslide, Terry could easily wind up in the Warner/Kaine zone in a hypothetical two-way, or less. This is called reversion to the mean in statistics.

To be sure, with Cuccinelli’s negatives, this seems illogical to me. His 42% tracks the Ollie North 43% pure vote in 1994, and for good reason in my view. That was also a three-way race with the third-party guy getting 11%. Robb got 46%.

Right now, the three-way numbers have Terry in the 42-44 zone, Ken in the 35-37 zone and Sarvis at 8-12, with the rest undecided. So assume it is a 53-47 two-way race at the end, with Terry and Ken, less than Robb but more than Kaine. Northam will get a higher vote due to GOP and independent Republican-leaning revulsion with Jackson. HOWEVER, the history says these defectors will come back to the Obenshain line, since he has more money to define himself and a solid statewide name for politics.

BOTTOM LINE: Unless Democrats mount the first-ever real ticket campaign starting two weeks out, then if Dr. Sabato is right, the GOP under current will naturally push Obenshain ahead of his GOP posse ticket mates. Wilder, the weakest of the Dems in 1985, ran roughly 3.5 points behind Baliles. In 1981, Baliles ran roughly 2.5 points behind Robb. Are these useful markers from a different era? There is no way to know. But it has to be assumed that left out there on his or her own, a Dem AG candidate is going to run at least 2 points behind the top of the ticket’s two way hypothetical vote.

So with polls showing 52% for T-Mac in a two-way vote, they are showing a dead-even race for AG, even at 53% given the margins of error.

AT 200 PROOF: We just call it like it is, no value judgment. We might be voting for Herring, but that doesn’t affect our analysis, we play it like it lies, PGA rules. Net, Net: While there is some downside risk to Terry and Ralph, it is not a risk of losing, only margins of victory. Mark could run the most brilliant campaign, but the gods of the political undertow don’t much care. The structure of the media today is against him being in the third position, way down the ballot.

The national GOP is going to come into the state in the last week to save Obenshain. This may mean trying to hold down the T-Mac margin. It may mean a straight pro-Obenshain play. It might be anti-Herring. I am not smart enough to know, I leave that to the experts. What I DO know is this: Dr. Sabato knows his stuff. So I assume Obenshain is going to run 2-3 points better than Cuccinelli in a two way. UNLESS DEMOCRATS MOUNT A REAL TICKET CAMPAIGN.

This may turn out not to be true in 2013, it will eventually sometime. But hindsight is not my game.  I am stickin’ to my sweep prediction. But like any pilot, you have to learn to trust your instruments in a fog. Give me a real DEM TICKET CAMPAIGN, and Mark is the favorite. Without it, if Cuccinelli mounts any kind of comeback in the last 10 days, then Herring is being put at risk.

The second poll in two days – this one from Christopher Newport University (note: I’m not a big fan of CNU polling, so I’m taking this with something of a grain of salt), the other from Politico – showing Terry McAuliffe with a big (9 points or so) lead over Cuckoo Cuccinelli. This poll also shows Ralph Northam with a big lead (11 points) over Wacko Jacko (E.W. Jackson) and Mark Herring with a 3-point lead over Mark “Criminalize Miscarriages and Ban Contraception” Obenshain.

NEWPORT NEWS, Va. –  Women, independents and defecting Republican voters give Democrat Terry McAuliffe a 9-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli among likely voters in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, according to a poll released today by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.

With less than a month to go, McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli among likely voters, 47 percent to 38 percent. Among registered voters, McAuliffe holds a 5-point lead, 43 percent to 38 percent. Libertarian Robert Sarvis was the preference of 8 percent of likely voters and 9 percent of registered voters.

“McAuliffe appears to be opening up a sizeable lead, with strength from key demographics,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. “The Cuccinelli campaign has its work cut out. In the next four weeks, they have to convince moderate Republicans to come home, and women to take a second look. The test for the McAuliffe campaign will be to make sure their voters turn out.”

The poll shows McAuliffe with a 12-point lead among women, 50 percent to 38 percent, and a 16-point lead among independents, 45 percent to 29 percent. Cuccinelli has nearly unanimous support among Republicans who say they are most concerned with social issues (96 percent). But 11 percent of Republicans who say they are most concerned about the state’s business climate say they will not vote for him – most preferring Sarvis. McAuliffe, too, shows some weakness in his base, with less support among African-American voters than President Obama in 2012 and the losing Democratic gubernatorial candidate four years ago, Creigh Deeds.

In the lieutenant-governor race, the CNU survey shows Democrat Ralph Northam with a commanding lead over Republican E.W. Jackson among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent.

The contest for attorney general remains a tossup. Democrat Mark Herring leads Republican Mark Obenshain among likely voters, 45 percent to 42 percent, within the survey’s margin of error.

P.S. I hear that a new Roanoke College “poll” is coming out this morning. Whatever its results, I’d strongly recommend you ignore it. For one thing, Nate Silver rated Roanoke College one of the least accurate pollsters in America. For another, its results over the years have been all over the place. Finally, Nate Silver showed that Roanoke College “polls” are biased about 5 points in the GOP direction. Other than that, they rock! LOL

The Wason Center surveyed 1,004 registered Virginia voters, including 886 likely voters, Oct. 1-6. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.  

The survey and Kidd’s analysis are attached. He is available for interviews.

A second round of the Wason Center gubernatorial election survey will be released on Wednesday, Oct. 9, breaking down how voters’ views on the state of women’s issues, religious freedom, partisanship and officeholders’ ethics influence their choices for governor.