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Perry, Gingrich Out; Should Virginia Change Law in Time for 2012 Primary?

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(I don’t particularly agree with this, but it’s an interesting argument. – promoted by lowkell)

Perry and Gingrich out as predicted: Should the 2012 General Assembly act on its first day to adopt the suggestion herein, and give GOP primary voters what should be their right, to choose their favorite candidate among those who are clearly credible contenders based on the polls?

by Paul Goldman

The failures of the Perry and Gingrich campaigns again point out the growing problem in our politics, which is that the internet makes it easy for anyone to talk the talk, but walking the walk is the same as when Moses had to get across the Red Sea without GPS on his Iphone: it is sweat equity, and low tide doesn’t hurt either. Stuff is hard to do. I am sure they will blame the President for this eventually.

However: Just as states should not be allowed to use ID laws to unfairly restrict voting rights of the people, the Republican loyalists of Virginia should be entitled to vote in their primary for those credible candidates seeking the party’s presidential nomination. Admittedly, the thought of President Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, Perry and Santorium, may be incredible, yet the people – in this case GOP voters – should have their right to pick their nominee.

Bottom line: While other candidates have, over the years, managed to get on the ballot, the issue is really not about them, but about the people’s right to choose. This is a failing of the national Perry and Gingrich campaigns, I get that. BUT voting rights are about the people, not the process.

Sure, the system has to be protected from fraud and the crazies, but this can’t be an excuse to, in effect, restrict the right of citizens to cast a ballot for their favorite candidate.

 

Bachmann, Huntsman, Gingrich, Perry and Santorium meet the test of legitimate candidates for the GOP nomination. They are getting 5% or more in key polls right now.  Keeping them off the ballot denies the people their right to choose. To be sure the rules on ballot access are equal for all, and well known to the candidates. Virginia Republicans have one of the larger delegations to the GOP Convention, thus it is shocking to think their campaigns could be so incompetent.

But is this process hurdle consistent with the right of the people?

This year, the answer is no. If it were a gubernatorial candidate missing the ballot, I would say yes, they’ve got to take the blame and the consequences.

But presidential candidates are different. Given that we are electing our national leader, logic would suggest we have similar rules for ballot access in all states. Before the 10th Amendment chorus pipes up (or those who want to remind me that we are called the United States of America for a reason), the state’s only agreeing after being assured of certain authorities. Remember, the Constitution gives Congress the power to set uniform standards. Maine used to vote in September for President, the rest later, leading to the famous adage “as Maine goes, so goes the nation.” This worked, given the 1860-1908 period when only one Democrat won, and Maine, like most of the North, voted with the GOP.  

But eventually, Congress set a uniform day for presidential elections, leaving most of the other rules to be set state by state. This is why we have so many potential lawsuits right now, once again caused largely by each state setting its own rules for our national election for local reasons. It is not the best approach for America right now.

As a matter of realism, this isn’t going to change anytime soon. Thus, Virginia has to make a decision on principle here, there being no other compelling force. For example, Mr. Gingrich leads the GOP polls in Virginia and is either ahead or tied nationally.

Did Newt’s campaign bungle the petition drive? Yes. Does this suggest what kind of chaotic White House would exist, if for some reason Americans wanted Newt’s finger on the nuclear trigger (are we that nuts?)? Indeed.

But should Newt’s name be on the ballot in March given his political standing right now? Yes to that too.

Should Newt’s campaign stay viable, Virginians will thus be shortchanged come March. The Secretary of the Commonwealth should have the power to put legitimate candidates on the ballot if they meet some credible markers of support, without requiring petitions. Those not meeting this test would still have the petition route.

This would be a useful change for Virginia law, all upside, no downside.

Moreover: There is still time to make this change this year. The Governor should order the State Board of Elections to wait before starting to print the ballot. Based on my experience, they can wait until the middle of January 2012. This gives time for the General Assembly to change the law.

Democrats should help out here. It is not about Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, Perry or Santorium. It is about the people and their right to choose. The shoe might be on the other foot someday for us Democrats. It also helps underscore the risk with all these ID laws which seem to have a partisan motivation.

We need as open and fair a process for the people, that’s the goal. Right now, the projected GOP presidential primary ballot doesn’t meet this standard. We can change it in time for the March GOP primary in 2012. The people win, no one loses. It just takes a little extra work.

I say do it.  

Breaking: Gingrich, Perry Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot

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According to the Republican’t Party of Virginia:

*”After verification, RPV has determined that Rick Perry did not submit the required 10k signatures and has not qualified for the VA primary.”

*”After verification, RPV has determined that Newt Gingrich did not submit required 10k signatures and has not qualified for the VA primary.”

With Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman not even bothering to submit signatures for validation, this means that only Willard Mitt Romney (formerly known as the guy running to the LEFT of Teddy Kennedy!) and (conspiracy theorist, David Duke admirer, anti-Israel/pro-Ahmedinejad nutjob) Ron Paul have made it onto the Virginia’s March 6 “Super Tuesday” primary ballot. What a party! Heh.

True, it’s not easy to get on Virginia’s ballot, and true, Virginia’s primary could very well be meaningless anyway (my guess is that flip-floppin’ Willard “Mitt” Romney will have clinched the nomination well before then). Still…c’mon, if a presidential campaign can’t even manage to get on Virginia’s primary ballot (in Gingrich’s case, he wasted a couple precious days of the candidate’s precious time, diverting to Virginia in a last-ditch, desperate attempt to qualify), they certainly can’t handle the general election, let alone running the country. Just drop out now and stop wasting everyone’s time and money!

P.S. This is also yet another major FAIL for our old friend Jerry Kilgore, who headed up Rick Perry’s Virginia campaign. It’s ironic, as Kilgore’s tag line in 2005 was, “I trust the people…always have, always will.” Well, sorry Jerry, but “the people” elected Tim Kaine over you in 2005, and now they haven’t exactly flocked to your presidential candidate’s banner. Still feeling the trust? Heh.

P.P.S. Needless to say, Barack Obama easily made it onto the Virginia primary ballot — the only Democrat to do so.

UPDATE: In 2008, SIX Republicans (Paul, McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney) made the Virginia presidential primary ballot; and in 2000, FIVE Republicans (Keyes, Bauer, Bush, McCain, Forbes) made it. In other words, Alan Keyes, Gary Bauer, Steve Forbes, Fred Thompson, and numerous others did what Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Jon Hunstman, and Rick Santorum couldn’t do — get on the Virginia Republican primary ballot!  Also, I’d point out that Jim Webb’s volunteers – led by the amazing Mary Detweiler – were able to get him on the primary ballot in 2006, without spending almost any money at all (fortunate, as Webb really didn’t have any!).

UPDATE #2: In 2004, the following Dems got on the Virginia primary ballot — Al Sharpton, John Kerry, Wesley Clark, John Edwards, Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman, Dennis Kucinich, Dick Gephardt, and even not-really-a-Democrat Lyndon Larouche.

UPDATE #3: And Newt, predictably, whines. What a pathetic LOSER!

Today, South Carolina. Next Year, Virginia?

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A little earlier this afternoon, we got some excellent news, that is if you care about the rule of law and protection of peoples’ right to vote:

The Justice Department on Friday entered the divisive national debate over new state voting laws, rejecting South Carolina’s measure requiring photo-identification at the polls as discriminatory against minority voters.

The decision by Justice’s Civil Rights Division could heighten political tensions over the new laws, which critics say could depress turnout among minorities and others who helped elect President Obama in 2008. A dozen states this year passed laws requiring voters to present state-issued photo identification, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

So far, Virginia isn’t one of those dozen states, but don’t you worry, the Teapublicans are on top of the situation heading into 2012! That’s right, watch out, as Virginia Teapublican Del. Mark Cole (R-Fredericksburg) has introduced this piece of crap legislation:

Elections; voting procedures; voter identification requirements; provisional ballots.  Provides that a voter who is unable to present one of the enumerated forms of identification may sign a sworn statement that he is the named registered voter he claims to be and then be allowed to vote a provisional ballot. Present law allows such a voter to vote an official rather than provisional ballot after signing such statement.

With voter participation already absurdly low, why on earth would we make it harder for people to vote in this country?  And no, there’s no serious problem with “voter fraud” in this country, that’s just a right-wing myth, like “the world’s actually not getting warmer” and “tax cuts pay for themselves.” In fact, it’s all about the Republican Party’s multi-decade war on voting rights, particularly against minorities, but also against young people and organized labor and pretty much anyone who might put up opposition to the Republicans’ 100% pro-corporate, anti-environment, anti-democratic (small “d”), anti-women, anti-GLBT, anti-immigrant (etc, etc, etc.) agenda. And, of course, this battle tends to flair up as we approach presidential election years, when the chances of Democratic victory increase with the numbers of Americans voting.  Funny how that works: when more people vote, Democrats do better; when fewer people vote, Republicans do better. Think about that one.

American Values in the Christmas Season: Miracle on 34th Street, & the Winter Solstice

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( – promoted by lowkell)

This is the final installment in my series of holiday messages, discussing several important imaginative works that have become deeply woven into how Christmas is celebrated in American culture. These works connect with Christmas, and they connect with the moral heart of America. And moreover, the issues they raise are central to the crisis that we Americans now face in the political realm, and that are at the heart of my campaign for Congress.

This installment has two parts: one dealing with the film “Miracle on 34th Street” and one with the placement of Christmas at the time of the Winter Solstice.

UNDREAMT OF IN YOUR PHILOSOPHY: MIRACLE ON 34TH STREET

The central issue in Miracle on 34th Street is what kinds of forces are at work in the world, and more specifically, whether the prosaic view of common sense captures everything we need to know about what’s possible.

The film pivots around two characters: one is an attractive woman, played by Maureen O’Hara, and an elderly bearded man (played by Edmund Gwenn) who claims to be Santa Claus. The old man’s claim to be Santa Claus is an assertion that the world contains magic and mystery. The woman, by contrast, is heavily invested in the idea that the world is just matter-of-fact and commonsensical.

We, the audience, are continually encouraged to root for the idea that there is more in heaven and earth than is dreamt of in her philosophy.  And eventually it comes out that her rejection of life’s magical element is the fruit of her past bitter disappointment in romance.

Two other people in the story depend upon the outcome of the tension between these two worldviews. A young man has a romantic interest in the woman who resists romance, and the woman’s young daughter is enchanted with the wonderful, warm-hearted Santa Claus, and struggling to reconcile what she sees and experiences with the imaginatively sterile vision of things she’s being taught by her mother.

The miraculous, of course, wins out over the sterile. To our great delight.

And what does this have to do with Christmas?  

It’s more than that the man is claiming to be the Kris Kringle that happens to be associated with Christmas. It’s about the idea that more is at work in the world than the prosaic and commonsensical.

The world appears, in the Christmas story, to be fully under the dominion of the brutal Romans and the corrupt rulers they have installed.  But there’s another kind of power that can enter the world, and that other kind of power is represented by a baby being born in a manger.  

That this other kind of power is a threat to the conventional power of kings and armies is shown by the reaction of the corrupt Herod who just as did Pharaoh at the time of Moses’ birthwants the child found so that he could destroy it.

In human affairs, sometimes the mundane course of events is disrupted by a spiritual power that operates by means other than swords and gold.

At the conclusion of Miracle on 34th Street, the life of the skeptic is transformed by the operation of magical powers she had said could not exist. Kris Kringle helps her find true love, and her daughter to grow up in the home of her dreams. Impossible, in terms of common sense. But possible in the world where unseen forces can work miracles.

And how does that relate to our campaign, and to the larger question of People Power defeating the Money Power?  

Common sense says that someone running as a Democrat in a District that is so heavily Republican as the 6th District cannot win. But there are forces that can be tapped into that can upset the obvious expectations.

Within the human spirit, something can be kindled.

A young man immolates himself in Tunisia, out of despair for his life in a corrupt society, and thus ignites also a movement across that part of the world that has already toppled three governments and may yet topple more. Common sense would never have seen the possibility.

Here, in these dark times in America, there is in many of our countrymen a yearning for a renewal of the goodness and effectiveness of our political process.  That yearning is an expression of the spirit, and the spirit is capable of changing the world in ways not unforeseen through the usual calculations.

Where is the power to be found in America today? That question can be answered in terms of dollars, in terms of red or blue districts, in terms like those that made Herod king. But it may be that the answer will lie elsewhere, in the kindling of the spirit.

Let the Herods of our times tremble, for this could be one of those times when the seemingly miraculous overturns the seemingly solid

commonsensical order of things.

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SOLSTICE: MAKING THE TURN FROM DARKNESS TO LIGHT

Christmas comes around the time of the winter solstice.  That’s not coincidence, but is tied into the meaning of the holiday.

That the birth of Jesus is celebrated at this time of year is NOT because anyone found a birth certificate indicating that he was born in the latter part of December.  There was no birth certificate, and it’s generally understood that this time of the year was chosen by Christians for reasons that connect with the fact of its being the solstice.

The winter solstice is the time of greatest darkness: the night is at its longest, the day at its shortest.  The solstice is also the time when light begins its ascendancy: the days now begin to lengthen.  In many cultural traditions, holidays around the time of the solstice put an emphasis on lights-the lights and candles of Christmas being one such instance.

The time of year when light begins its comeback is a fitting time for celebrating the birth of a child whose story culminates in redemption.  At the darkest time, the light begins the process of recapturing the world.

So it is with our political crisis, and with this campaign. This is a time where darkness has been dominating in the realm of power in America. The solstice and the Christmas season are fitting occasions to commit ourselves to helping making the turn back toward the light.

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Andy Schmookler is running for Congress in the 6th Congressional District of Virginia, challenging the incumbent Congressman, Bob Goodlatte.  An award-winning author, political commentator, radio talk-show host, and teacher, Andy moved with his family to Shenandoah County in 1992.  He is a graduate of Harvard University and holds a PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.  

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To learn more about Andy, please go to his website. You may also follow Andy on Facebook and on Twitter.  

McDonnell Gives Virginia Democrats a Big Issue in 2013 — If They Have the Guts

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( – promoted by lowkell)

by Paul Goldman

If today’s Virginia Democrats don’t know how to play this game, then perhaps it is time to let those of us who actually have a record of showing candidates how to win statewide races for Governor – it takes more than writing for a blog folks hate to tell you – to be put in charge for say 90 days to show you how it is done.

Earth to Virginia Democrats: with this move on Amazon.com, Governor McDonnell has given you a great 2013 issue. Namely: the logical consequences of McDonnell’s anti-Virginia-small-business policy (in letting Amazon not pay the sales taxes that Virginia-based businesses must pay) is to risk raising income and property taxes, hurting road funds, damaging the state’s small businesses base, shortchanging education, localities — and that’s just a quick list.

Look, I respect the Governor. I specifically applaud his work on a very vital education initiative, joining with Webb/Warner/Cantor/Allen/Kaine in a novel approach praised around the state (but not by the Washington Post strangely enough, but more on that in another post.)

But with all due respect, Mr: McDonnell: sir, you have forgotten the most basic axiom fiscal conservatism, as stated by Chief Justice John Marshall, who lived a few blocks from what is now the Governor’s Mansion.

So let me update it relative to your policy favoring a giant, out-of-state corporation over longstanding Virginia small businesses. “Using gubernatorial power to make sure the biggest company can avoid having to charge the same fair tax small business are forced to charge amounts to the power to destroy these small business.” I think CJ Marshall would think this is fair way to express his view 200 years later in the famous bank tax case.

Frankly, it surprises to see the Governor back what the base of the GOP – the state’s small businesses – have publicly said is anti-business, unfair, and a violation of free market principles (which some of us still actually support).  

I refer, of course, to the McDonnell support for the policy which allows the likes of Amazon to avoid doing what they are actually prepared to do, and are/will do in other states happily (indeed, to do what every small business has to do in VA for over 40 years). That is: collect the sales tax due on the kind of transactions done by Amazon.

For all these years, Virginia businesses have gladly done this because the public agrees that the sales tax is the fairest one for funding schools, state police, prisons, among other vital parts of state operations deemed the responsibility of the Commonwealth since at least TJ was Governor.

In the 1980’s, the sales tax was raised to help fund transportation with Republican support. In 2004, it was again raised  under Governor Mark Warner and the GOP General Assembly, when they voiced concerns about making sure Virginia kept a level playing field for businesses in the future relative to the state’s fiscal posture, among other reasons admittedly.

Now comes 2011.

Yesterday, the Governor announced that online retailer giant Amazon.com is going to bring over 1,000 warehouse-related jobs to Virginia as part of its growing distribution network. That’s good work sir.

But apparently, they were also told, even if it was just “wink, wink,” that the supposedly conservative Governor has agreed to use his powerful influence to keep the state’s current biased policy intact — a policy which benefits Amazon unfairly at the expense of the state’s small businesses, who helped built our Commonwealth over the years.

That’s to say: Amazon will not be required to collect the sales tax, but their small business competitors, already at a cost disadvantage, must do so, adding the sales tax to the total price paid by the consumer for their products.

Perhaps because I am among the last of the fiscally conservative Democrats – that’s why Warner and Wilder asked me to write their fiscal stuff – this McDonnell policy strikes me as a huge opening for Democrats.

As commerce moves online, the McDonnell policy means less and less money to keep long-time state commitments to fix roads, aid localities and schools, state police protection, prisons, down the list of vital state services.

The sales tax is the bedrock of state commitments here. So the only way to make up for the shortfall is to raise income taxes and property taxes, or charge businesses crushing new fees (which Amazon would not have to pay either!), or add a host of other special taxes and charges.

In effect, Mr. McDonnell is encouraging Virginians to buy from an out-of-state company, at the expense of Virginia companies. This is the job of the Governor of Virginia?

Amazon knows this gives them an unfair advantage earned not by merit, but rather by political influence.

Now, I know it is probably too much to ask Virginia conservatives to be principled here. Of course, if President Obama took the same position, it would be called “socialist” or something.

Yes, Virginians buying on Amazon get the same item 5% cheaper, all other things being equal. I get it. But in return, they drive their friends and neighbors out of business due to unfair competition. Next time, some powerful influence may find a way to put you at a disadvantage. Who’s going to want to help you then?

Now, if there were a merit basis for giving Amazon such an unfair advantage- and other onliners as well – that would be one thing. But the sales tax is suppose to be collected: the truth is, the Virginia consumer still owes! That’s right, it’s the law — check it out.

Governor, this is not a policy that a conservative businessperson can honestly say is either fair, merit based, or free market. It is really crony capitalism at the expense of the middle class, small business owners who are the backbone of the state’s business community.

Democrats need to unite to change it.

Sure, McDonnell will accuse us of wanting to “raise taxes”, the whole mantra. I trust the people of Virginia to know the truth, and support those who are looking out for their long-term interests, not for a big, wealthy, out-of-state corporation.

The Grinch Stole the GOP Christmas

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It looks like Virginia Republican primary voters, at most, will be choosing from a list of four pretty lousy contenders: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, and Newt Gingrich. Since the state GOP has decided that candidates who submit at least 15,000 signatures of registered voters on valid petitions with at least 600 signatures from each of the 11 districts will be asumed to have qualified, only Romney is assured at this point to have met the qualifications, while Paul probably has. Perry and Gingrich turned in fewer than 12,000 signatures and still may not qualify for the ballot.

Even if all four appear on the March ballot, GOP voters have a pretty sorry lot to choose from. Each one of the four has disgusting baggage weighing down any run for the White House, but perhaps the most bizarre is Ron Paul.

Paul has finally been unmasked as the con man and conspiracy nut he is, not the kindly old libertarian he pretends to be. A 1993 newsletter released under his signature contains unbelievable vitriol and hate. In it he rails against the “new money” the government printed to thwart counterfeiters, calling it part of a plot to create one world government. He brags that he had earlier “laid bare the coming race war in our big cities,” the “federal-homosexual coverup on AIDS,” and “the Israeli lobby which plays Congress like a cheap harmonica.” Then, Paul promises he can save people from the coming disasters if they will simply send him $99.

Then there’s Mitt Romney. In recent days he has stated that he will not follow the usual practice of presidential contenders and release his tax returns. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why. The guy benefits from tax breaks for the uber-wealthy and doesn’t want the rest of us to know that.

Romney, perhaps the richest man to ever seek the presidency with a worth of $200 to $250 million, is getting richer by the day from the arrangement he made with  Bain Capital, the private equity firm he founded. Bain still pays him a share of its profits, even though he has nothing to do with the firm now. Those profits are being taxed at very low income tax rates under a provision for hedge fund and private equity managers.

This particular tax break is known as the carried-interest loophole and allows privileged rich guys to treat the income they receive as capital gains, subject to a 15 percent tax rate. That particular loophole costs all the rest of us $4 billion a year.

If Rick Perry does make the ballot, well, anyone who watched any part of the interminable series of GOP debates saw vividly that Rick Perry is two sandwiches short of a picnic, all foam and no beer, a few channels short of cable…Enough said.

Newt Gingrich is perhaps the crassest of all the GOPers. When Jack Abramoff, just recently out of jail for world-class political corruption, calls you corrupt, you have just won the corruption Oscar. According to Abramoff, Gingrich “is…engaging in the exact kind of corruption that America disdains…Why are these guys getting all this money, why do they all become so rich?…Unfortunately Newt seems to play right into it.”

So, I present to you the field for the March GOP presidential primary in Virginia. Merry Christmas to all Virginia Democrats. We couldn’t have asked for a better present.

November 2011: Ignoring Global Warming Fails To Make It Go Away For 321st Consecutive Month

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November 2011, 12th-hottest on record & 321st consecutive month our planet’s temperatures were above the 20th-century average. January-November 2011, 11th-hottest on record. And if that doesn’t sound hot, keep in mind how much the last decade – the hottest decade humans have ever recorded – has skewed the record books. Until 1995, there had never been a year recorded more than 0.4 degrees Celsius above average. Now 2011’s 0.52°C above average … and it only ranks 11th.

Here’s a NOAA chart on November 2011’s extreme weather events:

Virginia News Headlines: Friday Morning

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Here are a few Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Friday, December 23.

*Dems win one as GOP caves

*House GOP surrenders on payroll tax cut (Remember, this was 100% the result of Eric Cant’or and his merry band of Teapublican’ts in the House. Next November, let’s toss every single one of these people outta there!)

*Bachmann, Santorum, Huntsman, miss Virginia primary deadline

*Newt Gingrich looks for support in Virginia

*Michelle Obama to hold fundraiser in Richmond

*Fed workers could be in for another tough year (Again, 100% thanks to Eric Can’tor and his merry band of Teapublican’ts in the House. Vote these people OUT!)

*Poll: Most in Virginia oppose guns on campus (It’s not even close on this one, or on repeal of Virginia’s 1-handgun-a-month law. Overwhelmingly, Virginians say “no” to both.)

*Afternoon Read: Allen, Kaine in Dead Heat

*Amazon purchases to remain free of Va. sales taxes (More corporate welfare from supposed “free market” supporter Bob McDonnell.)

*Fairfax City Mayor Robert Lederer to step down

*Transit riders to shoulder more fares as federal benefits drop Jan. 1 (Another brilliant move by House Republicans. Thanks guys!)

*Should Prince William board have ‘discretionary funds?’

*Lost dog comes home for the holidays

UPDATE: Also see Paul Krugman’s The Post-Truth Campaign, on how Mitt Romney lies and lies and lies and lies…and lies some more. Did I mention that Mitt Romney lies? Oh yes, I did.  

New EPA rules better than you think …or Administration claims

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( – promoted by lowkell)

Yesterday, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson went to a children’s hospital to announce the new regulations to control boiler emissions that will address 40-year old gaps in the Clean Air Act. As Jackson and commentators have noted, these regulations will save thousands of lives and have an economic value easily nine times greater than the costs to implement them. An 800 percent return on investment should look pretty good to any of us.  As David Roberts so accurately put it:

The Mercury Rules Announced Today Are a Bona-Fide Big Deal

Examining the discussion of the new regulations suggests a question: has the Environmental Protection Agency and all the advocates for action gotten the value calculation wrong?

While Meteor Blades at Daily Kos commented Three cheers for the Obama administration’s new mercury and acid emissions rules, do we have good reason to belt out loudly with a fourth cheer?

Based on an initial look, the answer seems to be yes.

While this is an incredibly complicated arena (how much do we value the life of an American citizen (or resident …), the health of ecosystems, etc …), IQ Bell Curvethe EPA and other Boiler MACT advocates seem to have fallen into a long-term pattern of inadequate analysis of the cost/benefit equation for environmental action. Yet again, advocates of action are significantly understating the value of action.

Here is one specific example that does not seem to be part of the equation: considering the impact of mercury on the IQ levels of Americans in a Bell Curve distribution and the potential impact this has on future economic performance.

Let’s put aside any question about the accuracy of the Intelligence Quotient, since the specific numbers are not the issue but we are concerned about the Bell Curve and the distribution and, for this post, the concept of the ‘tails’.  The ‘tail’ in the distribution are those extreme cases. Looking at the distribution in the graphic above, perhaps one could suggest the tail to be the below 60 scores and above 140 scores where, total, we are speaking in the range of, total, one percent of the population.

The scientific research shows a serious impact on IQ levels from mercury poisoning perhaps to the extent, across the entire nation, of lowering the average IQ by one point or more across all births.  In 2005, a Mount Sinai hospital study looked at this issue

The Mount Sinai study, “Public Health and Economic Consequences of Methylmercury Toxicity to the Developing Brain,” … examined the magnitude of the impact on America’s children of the loss of intelligence (IQ) caused by mercury pollution.

Reductions in intelligence due to mercury pollution affect between 316,500 and 637,200 American children each year and will cost the United States an estimated $8.7 billion in lost earnings annually

Putting aside any minor little issue of quality of life for the individuals and families involved, that $8.7 billion of lost wages annually isn’t something to scoff at. The study attributed $1.3 billion of this to power plant mercury emissions. (See also Physicians for Social Responsibility published Coal’s Assault on Human Health, chapter 5 looks at coal’s impact on the nervous system which is mainly an issue of mercury emissions and poisoning.)

Okay, so what is the gap.  After all, these sorts of costs are quite explicitly part of the EPA’s cost/benefit calculation.

There is an item of serious complexity and uncertainty that seems to be left out of these equations which, however, could have overwhelming impact.  When one pushes the average up or down, one is also changing the tail distributions.  E.g., mercury emissions from antiquated coal burning facilities is increasing the percentage of population below (let’s say) a 60 IQ, with all the potential implications for social costs (such as parents who work less to take care of intellectually disabled children, more intensive public school support, etc …), while reducing the percentage of children with IQs above 145 (that 0.13% showing as “exceptionally gifted” in the graphic).

Yes, again, IQ tests are filled with problems but a 145 IQ is a number often used as the separation point between smart and genius …  E.g., coal mercury emissions are reducing the number of genius Americans. And, reducing that pollution will — as a simple corollary — increase the number of tomorrow’s genius Americans.

Thus, an incredibly difficult question to calculate with exactitude but a very simple question for thinking about:

With the announcement of the Boiler MACT rules, how many future geniuses did the Obama Administration create for America?

How many more Einsteins, YoYo Mas, Spielbergs, Steve Jobs, and so on are now going to be part of America’s future that wouldn’t be without these regulations?  And, since everything devolves down to dollars and cents (without, at times, sense), how many $billions (or $trillions) of economic value will these future geniuses create?  Consider that …. consider Apple’s economic value or how much money Spielberg movies have brought to the economy or the differences Einstein’s brilliance has meant for a century.  As we seek to understand a cost-benefit calculation from this EPA rule announcement, consider this question:

Could just one of those future geniuses to be, fostered due to EPA’s action to reduce toxic mercury emissions, create more than $1.3 billion per year in new economic value for the nation?

For Channukah and Christmas and Kwanza and a very Happy New Year, the Obama Administration has gifted America’s future with the unknown potential and to be discovered gifts of additional future Thomas Jeffersons, Marie Curies, George Washington Carvers, Pablo Picassos, Thomas Edisons, ….