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13 Fearless (Foolhardy?) Predictions for 2012

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Here are a “baker’s dozen” predictions, fearless and/or foolhardy (and mostly all Virginia related in some way) for 2012. They are mostly by me, but they’re also based on input from other Blue Virginia “front pagers.” Feel free to add your own predictions in the comments section. Thanks, and Happy New Year!

1. The U.S. economy continues to recover, in part as Europe avoids meltdown. The unemployment rate drops below 8% by election day 2012.

2. Willard “Mitt” Romney easily wins the Republican nomination for president, as the anti-“Mitt”s fail to coalesce around one legitimate candidate (and no, Ron Paul isn’t a legitimate Republican candidate).

3. Either Ron Paul (although he’s damaged goods due to all the past racist, anti-Semitic, etc. writings) or egomaniac loony-tunes Donald Trump — or another right-wing Tea Party type — runs as a third-party candidate, in addition to Libertarian Gary Johnson, winning votes from conservatives and others on the right unhappy with flippin’-but-formerly-to-the-left-of-Ted-Kennedy, Willard “Mitt” Romney.

4. In large part because of #1-#3, Barack Obama is reelected president of the United States by a comfortable margin (3-5 percentage points), although not as big a landslide as in 2008.

5. Obama wins Virginia again, albeit by a more narrow margin than last time around, thanks to a huge margin in Northern Virginia, heavy turnout by African Americans and Latinos, and OFA’s organizing ability – but NO thanks to DPVA.

6. Mitt Romney selects Bob McDonnell as his running mate, but loses Virginia to Obama-Biden anyway.

7. A sunny, upbeat, likable, forward-looking, reality-based Tim Kaine defeats snarling, nasty, divisive, backwards-looking, science-denying George “Felix Macacawitz” Allen, 53%-47%. Allen goes back to lobbying full time (and for a ton of cash!) for the people destroying our planet and keeping us addicted to fossil fuels.

8. Democrats and Republicans end up tied for control of the U.S. Senate. Vice President Biden breaks the ties, but the Senate remains largely paralyzed as it has been for several years now (thanks to Republican abuse of the filibuster, mainly).

9. Democrats come very close, but fall just short of taking back the U.S. House of Representatives. Watch your back, John Boehner, as Eric Can’tor mounts a coup attempt for Speaker!

10. The Supreme Court does NOT rule the individual mandate as unconstitutional, although with some sort of wishy washy language that falls far short of a definitive ruling and leaves it as a live political issue. Whatever the exact decision, the Supreme Court case reminds people, in the middle of a presidential election eyar, that the mandate was originally a conservative, Republican idea (supported by Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, etc.), an alternative to “Hillarycare”‘s employer mandate. Ken Kookinelli throws a temper tantrum, ranting and raving about King George, “First Principles,” blah blah blah.

11. In part due to the DPVA’s utter dysfunction, there will be no serious Democratic candidates opposing Morgan Griffith, Robert Hurt, or Eric Can’tor.

12. Newt Gingrich is NOT on the Republican ballot in the Virginia primary, but he nonetheless manage s to (mis)use a few more absurd historical analogies (in addition to “Pearl Harbor”) to express how this is the WORST thing in the history of the world!!! LOL

13. Budget and tax battles continue all year, at the end of which, a reelected President Obama’s leverage  – due to the imminent expiration of the Bush tax cuts, as well as budget cuts slated to kick in automatically – leads to a grand bargain of sorts (this may be the final straw for Boehner, or Can’tor’s “Nixon goes to China” move, which Boehner lacked the credibility with Tea Party to pull off).  

Virginia News Headlines: Tuesday Morning

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Here are a few Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, December 27. Also, note the latest Gallup poll numbers for President Obama, which are the highest since last July. Will these numbers stay the same? Who knows. Does this poll represent an outlier? Definitely not, as other polls have also shown a bump upwards in President Obama’s approval ratings in recent weeks. Anyway, let’s hope this continues, and that it’s not just a blip!

*Did the VA GOP change the rules on primary ballot access in November 2011?

*Paul Goldman helps Newt Gingrich with Virginia ballot

*Amendment could block a Gingrich-McDonnell ticket

*Recruiting tightens race for control of Senate

*Va. A.G.: Primary ballot ’embarrassing’

*Va. unlikely to change law to allow Gingrich write-in

*Virginia budget omits funds for Potomac River (“Critics call decision short-sighted” — and the critics are right!)

*$2B in Va. road-work contracts awarded in ’11

*Super Committee’s Failure Could Hurt Fairfax, Arlington Businesses (“Looming cuts in federal spending are making the future less certain for Northern Virginia’s contractors and private businesses, which have relied on federal dollars for decades”)

*Navy finds no misconduct in SEAL’s BASE jump death

*Richmond schools in budget vise

*The Dangers of Creeping College Privatization

Whom the Gods Would Destroy, They First Make Mad –Euripides

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( – promoted by lowkell)

Nothing is more important, in these times, than that we recognize how profoundly pathological today’s Republican Party has become. A column by Paul Krugman today calls our attention to one important dimension of this pathology: what’s going on here is irrational, beyond explanation by calculated self-interest. It’s a kind of collective insanity.

Consider this. Krugman, in his discussion of the EPA’s recent very valuable decision to regulate mercury emissions, provides this cost-benefit analysis: “the payoff to the new rules is huge: up to $90 billion a year in benefits compared with around $10 billion a year of costs in the form of slightly higher electricity prices.”

And this relates only to that small piece of the benefits that can be quantified: “E.P.A.’s cost-benefit analysis only considers one benefit of mercury regulation, the reduced loss in future wages for children whose I.Q.’s are damaged by eating fish caught by freshwater anglers. There are without doubt many other benefits to cutting mercury emissions, but at this point the agency doesn’t know how to put a dollar figure on those benefits.”

Forget human suffering. Even just in terms of dollars and cents, this is a great bargain. A no-brainer, one might say.

And how do the Republicans respond to this measure that “will deliver huge benefits at only modest cost”? “[N]aturally, Republicans are furious.” Despite the fantastic bargain, “it’s a deal Republicans very much want to kill.”

Why? What’s going on here? Here’s Krugman describing how “something remarkable” has happened to the Republican Party:

“With everything else that has been going on in U.S. politics recently, the G.O.P.’s radical anti-environmental turn hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves. But something remarkable has happened on this front. Only a few years ago, it seemed possible to be both a Republican in good standing and a serious environmentalist; during the 2008 campaign John McCain warned of the dangers of global warming and proposed a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions. Today, however, the party line is that we must not only avoid any new environmental regulations but roll back the protection we already have.

“And I’m not exaggerating: during the fight over the debt ceiling, Republicans tried to attach riders that, as Time magazine put it, would essentially have blocked the E.P.A. and the Interior Department from doing their jobs…

“[M]indless opposition to ‘job killing’ regulations is now part of what it means to be a Republican.”

Such “mindlessness” in a major American political party is indeed “something remarkable.” But we are left with the challenge to figure out what “remark” can be made that captures the heart of this reality.

I am suggesting that the remark might well be along the lines, “This is madness.”

Madness is often described in terms of “imbalance,” and surely today’s Republican Party has lost even the concept of “balance.” Politics is about trade-offs. (For that matter, life is a lot about trade-offs.) Costs weighed against benefits. But not for the GOP. They are now possessed by a frame of mind that deals only in absolutes. It’s all or nothing.



In part, it is those lusts for wealth and power: all or nothing means the winners want it all, and the losers in the struggle for power will get nothing.

But the mentality has a pathology that goes deeper than sheer selfishness. All or nothing has resulted in a visual field in which so much is exaggerated, and so much is left out, that what’s seen is grossly distorted.

The capacity to deal with reality in terms of all the competing valid dimensions of value has been lost. The capacity to deal with politics as something other than total war has been lost.

The party that has been damaging everything it touches for more than a decade now is not only a destructive force, it is also a force in the grip of that kind of destructive force that Euripides captured in that famous line, “Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.”

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Andy Schmookler is running for Congress in the 6th Congressional District of Virginia, challenging the incumbent Congressman, Bob Goodlatte.  An award-winning author, political commentator, radio talk-show host, and teacher, Andy moved with his family to Shenandoah County in 1992.  He is a graduate of Harvard University and holds a PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.  

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To learn more about Andy, please go to his website. You may also follow Andy on Facebook and on Twitter.  

How Newt Gingrich is like Walt Whitman

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From Song of Myself:

I CELEBRATE myself, and sing myself;

And what I assume you shall assume…

I exist as I am, that is enough,

If no other in the world be aware I sit content,

And if each and all be aware I sit content.

One world is aware, and by the far the largest to me, and that is myself…

What blurt is this about virtue and about vice?

Evil propels me, and reform of evil propels me-I stand indifferent…

I dote on myself – there is that lot of me, and all so luscious…

O I am wonderful!

Do I contradict myself? Very well, then I contradict myself.  (I am large, I contain multitudes.)

I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable,

I sound my barbaric yaws over the roofs of the world.

Talk amongst yourselves.

Conservative Rich Lowry Whines: Waaaaaaaah! “We Don’t Have Our ‘A Team’ on the Field”

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I must say, this is truly tragic.

Speaking of discontent with the Republican field, I talked the other day to a pretty prominent conservative officeholder who’s constantly been discussing with people around the country the possibility of a new entrant or a push to draft someone. But who?… It’s hard to argue, though, with the bottom line of this conservative: In an election with enormous consequences for the future of our country, “we don’t have our A team on the field.”

Actually, this isn’t tragic at all, except insofar as it indicates the decline and fall of the once-serious “Grand Old Party.” Today, it’s more like the “Gone Off (the deep end) Party.” Bottom line: you know you’re not a serious party when your front runners are: 1) a long-time political loser and champion for the 1% (0.1%?) who’s flip-flopped on everything, including his support for cap and trade legislation, the individual mandate, abortion rights, gay rights, even his real first name; and 2) a bizarro, paranoid, conspiracy freak who hates gays, brown people, black people, Jews, Israel, the gub’mint, and black helicopters (but LOVES Mahmoud Ahmedinejad!). A few more comments courtesy of Whiskey Fire:

*”The fact that the GOP presidential field is only capable of coughing up a gang of clownish shysters and a laughably phony hack indicates that the GOP is not a political party, but Fox News by other means.”

*”[W]e can throw out all statistical models about prior elections because the modern GOP has gone off the charts nuts.”

*”Romney will probably win the nomination, but he is anyhow an astonshingly bad candidate.”

That about sums it up. Feel free to pile on, or disagree (although I can’t imagine a factual, reality-based reason for doing so) in the comments section.

Virginia News Headlines: Monday Morning

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Here are a few Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Monday, December 26.

*Gingrich likens his Virginia failure to Pearl Harbor (Crazy, egomaniacal, disrespectful to those who died at Pearl Harbor…that’s Newt Gingrich for you!)

*Gingrich faces long odds to compete in Virginia presidential primary

*Long-awaited pollution controls

*Va. election, uranium’s future among the top political, government stories of 2012

*Child mental health services underfunded, Va. study says

*Editorial: Track each lawmaker’s voting record (“The House of Delegates has embraced legislative transparency. The Senate should follow suit.”)

*Editorial: Handgun restrictions may top GOP hit list (“The 1993 state law limiting individuals to the purchase of one handgun per month had bipartisan support, but it may face a challenge in 2012.”)

*Lean economic times bring surge in free school lunches in region

*Ups and downs for Hampton Roads transportation in 2011

*Stories pour from Virginia pub owner at Ireland’s Own

*No rest for the weary as post-Christmas rush to stores begins anew

*Forecast: Sunny Boxing day, Tuesday torrent, then tranquil

Gingrich Campaign: Failure to Get on Virginia Ballot Analogous to Pearl Harbor

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No, apparently, this is not a joke by the Newt-sters:

By now you’ve likely heard that our effort to gain access to the primary ballot in Virginia was not successful. This was not due to a lack of effort by our volunteers, but the cumbersome process in Virginia.

We are exploring alternate methods to compete in Virginia – stay tuned.

Going forward, we will be as in-front of the process as possible and with the help of our grassroots volunteers we will make all other deadlines.

Newt and I have talked three or four times today and he stated that this is not catastrophic – we will continue to learn and grow. Remember that it was only a few months ago that pundits and the press declared us dead after the paid consultants left. They declared that the decision not to compete in the Ames Straw Poll would mean that Iowans would ignore us. Some will again state that this is fatal.

Newt and I agreed that the analogy is December 1941: We have experienced an unexpected set-back, but we will re-group and re-focus with increased determination, commitment and positive action. Throughout the next months there will be ups and downs; there will be successes and failures; there will be easy victories and difficult days – but in the end we will stand victorious.

OK, can we all agree that there’s something seriously wrong with Newt Gingrich, starting with pathological narcissism and megalomania? By the way, gotta love the continued whining about how this has nothing to do with the Newt campaign’s own, utter incompetence, it’s because Virginia’s ballot access requirements – ones that Gary Bauer, Dennis Kucinich, and many other presidential candidates have managed to fulfill over the years – are terribly unfair. Quick, somebody call the waaaaaambulance for Newt Gingrich, it’s an emergency!

Greetings My Fellow Non-Believers!!!!

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And Happy Holidays to all.

I just wanted to catch up and let everyone know that I did my part this morning, twice, actually to piss of a fundamentalist Christian this morning but in comparison to what John Medeiros did this week, I suspect my attempts fall short, but we’ll get to John a bit later.

What I did was fairly simple, but it is guaranteed to piss off a fundamentalist Christian on their second most favorite day of the year – the first, of course, being the execution the big man himself, but I digress.

I simply said Happy Holidays to my brother over the phone, which of course sent him into an  apoplectic seizure, a usual ritual during our annual conversation on Christmas morning.  Now, please understand I do love him, in spite of all his beliefs, so I called him the night before to ensure he had taken his high blood pressure because I am such a nice guy, just to make sure all that button pushing that was to follow the next morning didn’t cause any harm.    

However, a trip to the grocery store this morning was so much more fun and fulfilling.  On a whim, I went to the grocery store this morning to pick up some things for breakfeast.  I am the farthest thing on th planet from a Chritian and to be honest, this is really embarrassing to admit, my dog is a believer.  She thanks God everyday I rescued her from the animal shelter so I cut her some slack over her beliefs and bake her a mini spinach quiche for breakfeast on the big mans  birthday.  And of course it is full of swiss cheeese, one of her favorites!

So I am in line at the grocery store and as the checker gives me my change, I say with a big toothy, friendly smile, “Happy Holidays.”  Needless to say, she said to me sternly ” it’s not Happy Holidays, it’s Merry Christams.”  Needles to say we had words nd I asked her how could she work for Kroger, knowing they were such non-believers to open their stores to make a buck on JC’s birthday.  Needles to say it went over really well.  But the good news is the quiche is fabulous and my dog is under my computer desk in a food coma, snoring as we speak.  

     

But anyway, my fun this morning reeking havoc on Christmas Day pales in comparison to the fun John Medeiros of Minneapolis has had this week.  You see, John had a ring side seat to watch State Senator Amy Koch, Republican State Senator and cu-coo for Cocoa Puffs, implode this week.  You see, Koch, a supporter of a supporter of a constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage and admitted JC addict, admitted to cheating on her husband with a campaign staffer.

Poor John was traumatized by this news, knowing he and the gay community in Minnesota were responsible for ruining the institution of marriage.  John and others immediately signed up for extensive counseling to deal with their guilt, however, John, being quick on his feet, decided to issue a very public apology to Senator Koch in the form of a letter:

Dear Ms. Koch,

On behalf of all gays and lesbians living in Minnesota, I would like to wholeheartedly apologize for our community’s successful efforts to threaten your traditional marriage. We are ashamed of ourselves for causing you to have what the media refers to as an “illicit affair” with your staffer, and we also extend our deepest apologies to him and to his wife. These recent events have made it quite clear that our gay and lesbian tactics have gone too far, affecting even the most respectful of our society.

We apologize that our selfish requests to marry those we love has cheapened and degraded traditional marriage so much that we caused you to stray from your own holy union for something more cheap and tawdry. And we are doubly remorseful in knowing that many will see this as a form of sexual harassment of a subordinate.

It is now clear to us that if we were not so self-focused and myopic, we would have been able to see that the time you wasted diligently writing legislation that would forever seal the definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman, could have been more usefully spent reshaping the legal definition of “adultery.”

Forgive us. As you know, we are not church-going people, so we are unable to fully appreciate that “gay marriage” is incompatible with Christian values, despite the fact that those values carry a biblical tradition of adultery such as yours. We applaud you for keeping that tradition going.

And finally, shame on us for thinking that marriage is a private affair, and that our marriage would have little impact on anyone’s family. We now see that marriage is more than that. It is an agreement with society. We should listen to the Minnesota Family Council when it tells us that marriage is about being public, which explains why marriages are public ceremonies. Never did we realize that it is exactly because of this societal agreement that the entire world is looking at you in shame and disappointment instead of minding its own business.

From the bottom of our hearts, we ask that you please accept our apology.

Thank you.

John Medeiros

Minneapolis MN    

http://www.lgbtqnation.com/201…

For those of you out there who are also traumatized by this news, please get some help.  And for those who wish to send Ms. Koch a sympathy card, please feel free to google her to locate her office address.

Virginia News Headlines: Sunday Morning (Christmas Day)

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Here are a few Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Sunday, December 25. Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating it, and happy holidays/long weekend to everyone else! (By the way, I’m not particularly a Justin Bieber fan, but I looked for a video of the great Stevie Wonder doing this song but wasn’t able to find one. Also, this video has the virtue of being sung to President Obama, who many of us are going to work very hard to reelect in next year.)

*COMMENTARY: A step toward more open government (By Del. Jim LeMunyon and Del. Mark Keam)

*Allen, Kaine fight already under way in Va.

*Should Amazon start paying state sales tax?

*Merry Christmas, Amazon.com! (“The hypocrisy of the McDonnells is that while they play free market and tight budget and stick it to the schools and retirees and Medicaid recipients, they have no trouble handing out goodies to big firms like Amazon, that have no trouble taking care of themselves.”)

*Gingrich camp assails Virginia’s “failed system” (No, Newt, YOU failed! Look in the mirror, dude.)

*Gingrich’s ‘disaster’: Failure to get on Va. primary ballot raises questions

*Missing 2-year-old found after double homicide in Virginia

*Expected budget shortfall could mean larger classes in Va. Beach

*Uranium could be a ‘marquee issue’ in the General Assembly

*Tea party activists prep for round 2 in Richmond

*Officer’s Widow: ‘I’m taking it one hour at a time’

*In convention biz, perks can drive business deals

*Redskins’ disturbing loss to Vikings obscures team’s recent progress

Merry X-mas President Obama, Here’s a PR Victory!

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All the talk on the right about “class warfare” would make you think that Karl Marx has risen from his grave to finally lead the proletariat revolution in the most industrialized country in the world. So what is the right trying to do, anyways? Who’s fears are right-wing demagogues like Karl Rove attempting to stir? Logically, it would appear that such fear-mongering is an attempt to turn the 1% into an extremely determined anti-Obama segment of our society (assuming they aren’t already).

But there has to be a broad constituent appeal to this argument, right? Strangely, it would appear so. It seems that the “class warfare” argument aimed at our president is perceived by different groups in the U.S. in different ways. For instance, the 1% take the class warfare argument to clearly mean class warfare aimed at them, the top 1% of the U.S. population in terms of wealth.

Those on the right of the political spectrum in the middling class of the U.S., on the other hand (those a part of the 99%), seem to interpret the class warfare argument as one that is aimed at themselves. That is, President Obama is attempting to steal from the middle class and give to the poor, a modern day Robin Hood. Appealing to reason doesn’t seem to be the solution to this messaging quagmire.  

While President Obama has clearly stated that the highest earners in our society should be giving a little bit more to the system in the form of taxes, some within the middle class have only perceived President Obama’s attempts at economic justice as a radical redistribution of wealth targeted at the middle and upper classes of U.S. society. So it may be a tricky messaging situation for the Democratic Party.

Do you raise the annual income ceiling on the 1%, for purposes of taxation, so high as to pull more class warfare skeptics on board, sealing off a sizable tax base from future tax hikes, or do you ignore these individuals and continue to appeal to moderate America? Is this even an appropriate solution? Will any attempt by President Obama to move forward economic justice be met with approval by these right wing class warfare skeptics?

I think the answer to the last question is yes. The latest Republican loss-of-face over the payroll tax break extension has given the Obama administration and the Democratic Party a new foot to stand on in the debate over which party truly cares about the middle and working classes of America. This time, I hope neither squanders this great public relations victory.