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Should Mark Warner Run for Governor?

By
Goldmanusa
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3

( – promoted by lowkell)

There is increasing chatter among the chattering class about the possibility of Senator Mark Warner running for governor in 2013. This type of thing doesn’t help Terry McAuliffe or the party right now, but given the wipeouts of 2009, 2010, the loss of the Senate in 2011, and worries over the President’s re-election chances, such speculation is understandable. The recent PPP poll showed Terry running even with Bolling Alone and the Ken Doll, but MarkNotJohn is the big dog of VA politics. He would likely win easily, if not by a record margin in the two party era. In the past, such landslides have elected one or both ticketmates as well. This could give Democrats control of the State Senate, although the GOP would maintain a comfortable House of Delegates majority. There hasn’t been a Democrat elected AG for over a generation.

Now, of course it is more fun to be Governor than Senator — and you get more perks. But you can’t change the country from Virginia; you can from Washington. Indeed, from the Governor’s Mansion, you might not even be able to change Virginia all that much under the best of circumstances, which is what Warner said in advocating a Constitutional change to allow a Governor to run for re-election.

There is no chance the House GOP is going to allow the Constitution to be changed to let Governor Warner run again in 2017. So in practical terms, Mark would be giving a safe gig in DC, for the same four-year straight jacket he was in a few years ago.

Then there is the macro fiscal picture. As I wrote several years ago in the Washington Post, the state’s twin deficits, operational and structural, can’t be fixed by merely raising taxes. The last time Mark Warner proposed to raise income taxes, he did so on the highest earners, in exchange for doing away with the estate tax and asking the middle class to pay more with an increased sales tax.

Today, the estate tax is now gone, there is no higher income tax, and the sales tax has been increased. You can’t fix these twin deficits by merely cutting spending. What would a new Warner governorship propose? Logic suggests he would want both a tax increase to fund transportation, and another to deal with the twin deficits. Two new big taxes getting through the GA? Not likely.

But you say: A popular Governor Warner could campaign around the state to elect a pro-tax, fiscally responsible GA. Get a grip dude; ain’t gonna happen. Warner would probably have to settle for one or the other, which is not as big a win as the last time.

Warner I,  even with his popularity, incredible energy and the help of a Republican Senate, had to settle for a 1/2-cent sales tax increase, with a good chunk of that money actually going in the end to fix the hole in the budget caused by eliminating estate taxes.

This isn’t Harry Byrd’s Virginia where one guy gets to call the tune.

Moreover, Warner is on record saying he would have focused on transportation more in a second term. So his big play for more revenue is going to be in that area. It will take all his skills to get that done.

Warner I took a knife to the budget, Tim Kaine cut much more, and so has McDonnell, along with other gimmicks which have to be paid for at some point.

The fact is, second acts are the toughest in politics, especially if the first one is deemed a big success.  Warner I set a high bar for Warner II. The next Governor is inheriting a tough hand.

In running for Governor, Warner would have to explain why he wanted to leave Washington before finishing even one term. We can presume the answer would not help his chances for President. Moreover, Warner almost surely would have to pledge to serve his full term and not run for national office in 2016. Which means that Warner almost certainly can’t get sworn in as Governor in 2014 and be out on the presidential trail in 2015.

In effect, Warner would take himself out of the presidential running until 2020 at the earliest. A lot can happen in nine years. At that point, in political terms, I don’t see how he is better off than he was in 2008. Indeed, he would now have to explain why he didn’t like Washington, left, and now wants to come back. Moreover, Warner I will matter less than Warner II. I see greater risk than reward, usually a bad political play.

Net, net:  If Warner plays his cards right in the Senate, he will be a very viable VEEP candidate in 2016 at the minimum, given the growing importance of Virginia as a key swing state (and its not-so-shabby 13 electoral votes). By 2020, Warner can win a third term and be a senior guy in the Senate, as a lot of those around today will be gone by then.

Most importantly for Warner: In terms of Virginia, the big issue facing us and the country is the state of education system. Today, we are 18th internationally according to a study cited by Bill Clinton (who agrees that education is the key, as we have to raise the job skills of our people). Our high schools are not keeping up, in part because, as a recent study points out, the facilities are too old to support a true 21st-century education. Yes, VA is highly rated, but those of us who know true facts realize the ranking is not quite what it seems. Those who out-educate us now will out-compete us tomorrow as we Dems said in 2008.

As a practical matter, I believe Warner could do more to help Virginia – and the country – on this fundamental issue, better in the U.S. Senate than as a one-term Governor. He will have a great ally in Tim Kaine, a very pro-education guy.

The fight for America’s future, which centers on education, has to be led from the Washington side of the Potomac. It is going to take a pro-business, pro-education, pro-private-capital investment mindset to get America moving again; we can’t borrow our way of the hole. On paper, Warner is in the sweet spot as I see it.

Bottom line: To be blunt, Mark wastes his talents coming back to Richmond, in addition to missing a unique opportunity. It would be a “been there, done that” kind of thing. Yes, Virginia Democrats need his help to win in 2013, that goes without saying. We will need Senator Kaine too.  Virginia Democrats are in a funk now, but that will begin to lift as 2012 gets going and people see we ain’t dead yet.

Mark may fool me, and it will not be the first time. But if there is an equation which says he and the state would be better off with him in Richmond for one more term, as opposed to his rising to a be a major player in the Senate teamed up with the Timster, I haven’t seen it, read it or heard about. Nor has anyone else.

NAS Uranium Mining Study: Much Ado About Mining, Milling, & Profits Too!

By
Progressive86
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4

Before a full house in House Room D of the Virginia General Assembly building, the National Academy of Sciences presented their long awaited report on uranium mining in VA.

A source with the Virginia Conservation Network told me that there were probably somewhere between 60-75 Virginia Uranium Inc. lobbyists, including their respective staffers. That is, a possible 60-75 individuals representing the interests of VUI out of a room whose maximum occupancy is 365 people.

Those in opposition to lifting the ban on uranium mining were out in impressive force too, however. Our state representatives certainly felt their presence at the subcommittee meeting on uranium mining.

Aside from the attempts to undercut the integrity of the NAS released study on uranium mining in VA (which, ironically, did not actually study any specific sites for uranium mining in VA) by Del. Bill Janis (R-56th District), the meeting demonstrated Virginia’s need to move prudently and cautiously towards the idea of lifting the ban on uranium mining in VA.

First, a robust public participation process must be established before the uranium mining can even be considered a possibility in VA. Secondly, best management practices must be put into place to decrease the risks involved with uranium mining and milling. Third, regulatory structures and guidelines must be established to ensure that human and environmental safety is protected in the commonwealth in the short and long run. These are perhaps the most essential steps yet to be taken by our state government.  

Unfortunately, many of the best questions that were posed to the presenter of this study, Dr. Paul Locke, couldn’t be answered due to the fact that the study was a generalized, non-site specific study. For instance, some questions like “what risk does uranium mining and milling pose in VA” could not be answered by Dr. Locke due to the site specific variables involved.

For those of us who at the very least feel that more research is needed before a decision is made on lifting the uranium mining ban in VA, the uranium mining subcommittee meeting appeared to discredit those who want to see immediate action on uranium mining and milling in VA. Of course, nothing is for certain except that the struggle between prudence and greed will continue to be waged for some time to come in Virginia. That is, between those of us concerned more with human and environmental health and those concerned more with profits.  

Rep. Connolly: “How the GOP Grinch stole Christmas for 160 million Americans.”

By
lowkell
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3



Here’s Rep. Connolly’s statement, which I strongly endorse. What’s wrong with these House Teapublican’ts exactly? Are they on crack, are they off their meds, or – more likely – are they only interested in cutting taxes if it’s for the top 1% (screw the other 99%, the Koch brothers and Grover Norquist don’t care about them)? Sure seems like it.  Anyway, enjoy the (House) Teapublican Tax Increase, everyone, because they’re 100% the ones responsible for this situation (perhaps we should all send snarky thank-you notes to Eric Can’tor?).

Mr. Speaker,

It’s Grinch time in Washington, Mr. Speaker. One is incredulous that House Republicans would oppose a tax cut for 160 million Americans.  But that is just what they are going to do today.

Is this bill perfect?  No.  There are aspects upon which both sides disagree.  But it is the area of agreement that should be the most important – Congress stops playing hostage politics and halts the tax hike on 160 million fellow citizens.

Saturday’s Senate vote was 89 to 10, not just liberals I say to my friend from South Carolina, with all members of the Senate leadership, Republican and Democrat, voting in favor.  If House Republicans vote against this compromise, they will ring in the New Year with a tax hike of their own making.

If House Republicans were serious about wanting certainty as they claim, they would vote for this bill today – and guarantee that 160 million Americans won’t pay higher taxes on January 1st.

Mr. Speaker, rejecting this bill and holding up the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits will be a true example of how the GOP Grinch stole Christmas for 160 million Americans.

Should Mark Warner run for Governor?

By
Goldmanusa
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0

by Paul Goldman

There is increasing chatter about the possibility of Mark Warner running for governor in 2013. Warner would likely win easily, if not overwhelmingly. In the past, such landslides have elected one or both of the ticketmates as well. This could give Democrats control of the State Senate, although still with a comfortable GOP margin in the House.

Now, of course it is more fun to be Governor than Senator — you’ve simply got more juice as Guv. But you can’t change the country from Virginia; you can from Washington. Indeed, from the Governor’s Mansion, you might not even be able to change Virginia all that much, given the alignment of political forces here.

For instance, as I wrote many years ago in the Washington Post, the state’s twin deficits, operational and structural, can’t be fixed by merely raising taxes. The last time Mark Warner proposed to raise income taxes, he did so on the highest earners, in exchange for doing away with the estate tax and asking the middle class to pay more with an increased sales tax.

Today, the estate tax is now gone, there is no higher income tax, and the sales tax has been increased. What would be a new Warner governorship propose? This time, he could include a tax increase to fund transportation, so there would have to be another one to deal with the general fund. Two new big taxes? Not likely.

Regardless, there is no way to solve Virginia’s transportation situation in the short term, given the lead times on the fixes regarded, no matter what taxes you raised. And, of course, it would take a lot of horse trading with the House GOP to get anything meaningful. I think Warner could pull it off, but what does that mean in the long run?

The fact is, second acts are the toughest in politics, especially if the first one is deemed a big success. In that regard, Mark Warner has set the bar high, so what would be considered a success the first time might be met with a “no big deal” this time.

In running for Governor, Warner would have to explain why he wanted to leave Washington before finishing even one term. We can presume the answer would not help his chances for President. Moreover, Warner almost surely would have to pledge to serve his full term and not run for national office in 2016. Which means that Warner almost certainly can’t get sworn in as Governor in 2014 and be out on the presidential trail in 2015.

In effect, Warner would take himself out of the presidential running until 2020. That’s 9 years, and a lot can happen in that time. Moreover, I don’t see how he is better off than he was in 2008. Indeed, he has to explain why he didn’t like Washington, left, and now wants to come back.

Net, net: Assuming Warner gets re-elected in 2014, he has a reasonable shot at being on the 2016 Democratic ticket. Moreover, by 2020, he figures to be re-elected to a third Senate term, and have a fair amount of power in the Senate.

My own hunch: If he plays his cards right in the Senate, Warner will be a very viable VEEP candidate in 2016 at the minimum, given the growing importance of Virginia as a key swing state given its not-so-shabby 13 electoral votes.

In terms of Virginia, the big issue facing us and the country is the state of education system: we are 18th, slipping, and our high schools are not keeping up, in part because, as a recent study points out, the facilities are too hold to support a true 21st century education.

As a practical matter, I believe Warner could do more to help Virginia on this issue in the U.S. Senate than as a one-term Governor (there is no way the GOP lets him run again by changing the rules.) Moreover, he would have more freedom in the Senate to speak out on transportation and other issues.

Of course, it is surely more fun to be Governor than Senator right now. And yes, more Governors get to be President than Senators by the numbers.

But none has ever won after having left Washington fed up with its culture. On the other hand, there is always a first time.

The fight for America’s future, which centers on education, has to be lead from Washington side of the Potomac. Webb has been a good ally; Kaine will be too. It is going to take a pro-business, pro-education combo to make it work. Warner should own that sweet spot. But he can’t do that from Richmond.  

National Academy of Sciences Report: “Steep Hurdles” to Uranium Mining in Virginia

By
lowkell
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3

The authoritative, respected (except by anti-science fanatics like Ken Kookinelli) National Academy of Sciences has weighed in on uranium mining in Virginia, and it’s basically a bright yellow (or red) CAUTION/DANGER/WARNING sign flashed in front of our eyes. A few key points:

*”[I]f Virginia lifts its moratorium, there are ‘steep hurdles to be surmounted’ before mining and processing could take place within a regulatory setting that appropriately protects workers, the public, and the environment, especially given that the state has no experience regulating mining and processing of the radioactive element.”

*”Should the ban be lifted, uranium mining and processing are unlikely to begin for at least five to eight years after the initial granting of a license, the report says.  This period of time should be used to build a robust regulatory and management culture focused on safety and citizen involvement.”

*”[S]uch activities in Virginia would have the potential to impact water, soil, and air quality.  The degree of impact would depend on site-specific conditions, how early a contaminant release is detected by monitoring systems, and the effectiveness of mitigation steps.”

*”While it is likely that tailings impoundment sites would be safe for at least 200 years if designed and built according to modern best practices, the long-term risks of radioactive contaminant release are unknown.”

In sum, uranium mining in Virginia is highly questionable at best, would require a large number of steps to be taken over 5-8 years, and would still leave long-term risks that are “unknown.” In other words: Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

P.S. If Virginia Uranium would just send me to France for a week or two, all expenses paid, I might just reconsider my opposition to this. (wink wink, just kidding — obviously I’d never do that, but I’d sure love a free trip to France like they offered to all our legislators! LOL)

The Devil in the Details

By
Elaine in Roanoke
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3

Bob McDonnell had now unveiled the only budget he will propose in his term as governor, and I agree with Lowell’s assessment that it’s a “Scrooge budget,” worthy of Ebenezer Scrooge before he was redeemed by the ghosts of his past. present, and future.

In his message, McDonnell made a big deal of the fact that he is not imposing a “mandate” on local government by deciding that they will have to pay half of the $2.2 billion he wants to add to the VRS trust fund. Well, as the overused adage says, “If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, then it’s probably a duck.” Not only does he force that cost on localities, but he adds insult to injury by refusing to replace any of the $108 million in expiring federal stimulus money for public schools. And, to top off his lack of support for localities, he eliminates $109 million to cover inflation for non-classroom public school support services.

As bad as his budget is for local government, however, to me the worst aspect is his plan to freeze hospital and nursing home rates for Medicaid recipients and to reduce indigent care at state medical school teaching hospitals. That means fewer beds will be ultimately be available for the elderly who have exhausted all their assets and need nursing home care, the largest single fraction of Medicaid spending and sure to grow as the population continues to age. Additionally, hospital rates for the insured and for private pay patients will rise to replace the cut to state teaching hospitals.

McDonnell is cutting a total of $416 million from Virginia’s Department of Medical Assistance Services. As if all that wasn’t enough, he’s also reducing the income limits for eligibility for Medicaid long-term care, meaning fewer people will be able to qualify. All this on top of the fact that Virginia is already the stingiest state in its funding of Medicaid.

McDonnell makes sure he gets in his ideological jabs, as well:

The budget guts former Gov. Kaine’s signature achievement, pre-K education, a proven way to raise academic achievement for children. He again wants to end all subsidies to public radio and television, $7.2 million.

As I read his budget message I couldn’t miss how he slammed President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, conveniently omitting to say that his rosy assumption of a 4.5% increase in state revenue growth in 2014 comes in large part from a proposed hike in federal payments to Virginia for increased Medicaid eligibility, that is if Republicans in Congress don’t succeed in cutting that program to the bone.

Before state workers get all excited about the prospect of a 3% one-time bonus at the end of 2012, they might want to read the fine print. That bonus is contingent on there being unspent general fund money equal to twice the cost of the bonus.

McDonnell’s solution for transportation is to rob Peter to pay Paul. He wants to shift money in the general fund from other services to road maintenance, increasing the share of the sales tax going to transportation from .5% to .55% and mandating that 75% of all future surplus money go to transportation.

McDonnell has “balanced” his budget on the backs of children, local government, and the poor and elderly. He evidently did that in order to keep the yacht sales taxes at 2%, maintain state payments to welfare queens like the coal barons for not cutting jobs that they cut anyway, and to insure protection of a host of other tax breaks for the wealthy and the well-connected.

This budget is the opposite of what He whose birthday many of us will be celebrating next week taught mankind. He told us we would be judged by how we treated the hungry, the poor, the homeless, not by how we protect the wealthy and the powerful.

Bob McDonnell’s Scrooge Budget: Keep Giving to the Rich, Take from Kids, Seniors, etc.

By
lowkell
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6

Gov. Scrooge Bob McDonnell just finished presenting his budget for Virginia, and it’s as bad or worse than most of us thought it would be. A few lowlights:

*There are no new revenues in the budget {UPDATE: I’m informed that there’s an increased drivers license fee, which could raise a few million dollars a year — still utterly inconsequential in the context of an $85 billion two-year budget, but it’s worth mentioning for accuracy’s sake) which means that everything’s a zero-sum game. Remember that, as you analyze the budget: if there’s an increase in one area, there has to be a decrease in another.

*No new revenues also means continuing to starve transportation (have fun stewing in gridlock for many more years to come), failing to replace federal “stimulus” funds that are now ending, and absolutely nailing Medicaid (“$258.6 million saved by not funding inflation costs for hospital rates under Medicaid“).

*The budget hurts kids, foolishly and counterproductively taking “$81 million from gutting Democratic former Gov. Tim Kaine’s Virginia Preschool Initiative.” That’s really, really stupid, as pre-k is one of the most effective ways to get kids learning early. Why on earth would McDonnell cut that?

*Meanwhile, note that the wealthiest Virginians and most powerful corporations aren’t asked to pay any more. And note that there are no cuts to corporate welfare (e.g., coal, movies, wine, you name it — even the space industry gets some holiday goodies!) in this budget, despite the fact that this largesse costs Virginia tens of millions (or more) per year, for mostly no good public policy reason. Priorities, priorities, I suppose.

Bottom line: this is a classic Teapublican’t budget — hurting the poor, the elderly, the young, the most vulnerable, while protecting the gravy train rich people and corporations are riding on. It’s disgusting, but it’s also not surprising, given that this IS the Republican Way after all. Ebenezer Scrooge had nothing on these guys when it comes to cold-heartedness and selfishness.

P.S. The House Democrats’ press release is on the “flip.” I’m not sure how they can “vow” anything, given that there are only 32 of them in the 100-member House of Delegates, but alrighty…

House Democrats Vow to Protect Critical Needs in State Budget

Richmond, VA-House Democrats offered measured reactions to the Governor’s budget proposal as outlined during the Joint Finance Committee meeting this morning.

“This is the first opportunity we’ve had to see the complete budget and not just the pieces that have been released by the Governor over the past few weeks. This budget deserves a thorough review to ensure that essential state services including education, law enforcement, health care, and transportation are properly funded,” said Minority Leader, David J.Toscano.

House Democrats reiterated the concerns expressed during last year’s budget debate that the Governor’s transportation initiatives will be funded at the expense of essential state services like education. “While we need to review the details of the budget,” said Toscano, “the Governor’s initial proposals appear to divert nearly $110 million dollars from critical funding needs in the areas of education and public safety, and impose serious financial demands on localities at a time of severe fiscal stress. Those pressures will ultimately affect the services Virginia citizens use in their hometowns and the taxes they pay to maintain them.”

“Our children must be prepared for a 21st-century economy, and that begins with a world-class education from pre-kindergarten through college. We will scrutinize every line in this budget to ensure that education dollars aren’t being diverted to other areas such as road funding,” said Caucus Chairman Mark Sickles. “We need to move the state forward with serious, sustainable transportation proposals that don’t come at the expense of our kids and schools.”

“This budget is a starting point for a conversation that will take place in the upcoming legislative session,” said Delegate Ken Plum, Caucus Chairman Emeritus. “Last session, House Democrats fought to restore proposed cuts to education, sheriffs, and health care services. We are prepared to fight to ensure that these priorities, the priorities of all Virginians, are reflected in the final budget – and that it won’t hurt the working families that are vital to keeping Virginia’s economy strong.”

Christmas Carols for Governor McDonnell

By
VirginiaOrganizing
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0

The 12 (8) days of Christmas

xmas_carolers

On the first day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Regressive taxation

On the second day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation

On the third day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Corporate freeloaders, underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation

On the fourth day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Overburdened counties, corporate freeloaders, underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation

On the fifth day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Health Care Cuts!

Overburdened counties, corporate freeloaders, underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation

On the sixth day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Neglected infrastructure

Health Care Cuts!

Overburdened counties, corporate freeloaders, underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation

On the seventh day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Laid-off state employees, neglected infrastructure

Health Care Cuts!

Overburdened counties, corporate freeloaders, underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation

On the eighth day of Christmas my governor gave to me:

Inadequate mental health services, laid-off state employees, neglected infrastructure

Health Care Cuts!

Overburdened counties, corporate freeloaders, underpaid teachers, and regressive taxation…

occupy the grinch

God rest ye merry…

God rest ye merry one percent

Let nothing you dismay

Remember all the delegates

You bought on election day

They’re cutting health care, jobs, and schools

So you don’t have to pay

Oh-oh tidings of comfort and joy, comfort and joy

Oh-oh tidings of comfort and joy

We saw McDonnell Kissing David Koch

We saw McDonnell kissing David Koch

Underneath the Capital last night

He didn’t see us creep

Down the stairs to take a peek

He took us for granted

And thought we were fast asleep

Then we saw McDonnell tickle Charlie Koch

Underneath his pockets oh so deep

Oh what a laugh it would have been

If Cuccinelli had only seen

McDonnell kissing David Koch last night!

Carols brought to you by Occupy Blacksburg and Virginia Organizing Southwest.

Virginia News Headlines: Monday Morning

By
lowkell
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4

Here are a few Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Monday, December 19.

*McDonnell to unveil two-year budget

*McDonnell: St. Nick with pension, bonus, higher ed goodies; budget may expose his inner Grinch

*Paul leads in Iowa (Newt Gingrich implodes, looks like Mitt Romney will be the Republican’t nominee next year.)

*House to vote Monday on payroll tax cut bill (Let’s see if we get what some are calling the “Tea Party Tax Increase.”)

*Senate approves nearly $27 million for Craney Island (Remember when Felix Macacawitz used Craney Island as a trick question against Jim Webb in a debate in 2006? Now, Senator Webb’s helping to pour money into the marine terminal’s capacity. Gotta love it.)

*‘Dream big’ Gov. McDonnell tells VSU graduates (For his part, McDonnell’s dreaming of being somebody’s – anybody’s – running mate in 2012. Heh.)

*Va. uranium mining report to be released this afternoon

*Building a smaller, smarter state government (An editorial by Bob McDonnell’s friend the corrupt, Nixon-era “Jew counter,” who was forced to pay a large fine for ripping of the Connecticut state pension fund.)

*Rift on Arlandria development exposes political fault lines on Alexandria City Council (Ah, local politics…so calm and peaceful, unlike Congress. LOL — not!)

*‘Sick customers’ cause 5 percent of Metro delays

*Secondary Payloads Lower Cost of Satellite Launches

*Redskins put a hurt on Giants’ playoff hopes, Grossman throws TD pass in 23-10 win

*Forecast: Winter chill doesn’t last long

P.S. Thanks to Sue Langley for the photo from the FCDC Holiday Party. For lots more photos by Sue, see here.

UPDATE: Also, see Kim Jong-il’s death: an uneasy legacy. On the one hand, good riddance to an evil freak. On the other hand, could this lead to instability in the Korean Peninsula? Stay tuned…

Building Rational Expectations for Virginia Democrats

By
FreeDem
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44

(Thought provoking, very well informed, thanks for this diary! – promoted by lowkell)

Earlier today, Lowell brought to our attention the enthusiasm gap between Virginia Democrats and our Republican colleagues as we close out 2011 and look ahead to 2012 and 2013. Republican candidates are coming out of the Tea Party woodwork to prepare for statewide runs in 2013, while the Democratic side is silent. I joined the comments to promote discussion of several observations I have on the matter, but I wanted to pull them all together in a diary to get more discussion and throw out some more controversial thoughts.

First, 800 pound gorilla in the room is the Junior Senator from Virginia, soon to be Senior Senator, and former “His Excellency” Mark Warner.

There is a push in the party to get Warner to return to Richmond in 2013 as the only way to reverse the party’s fortunes after setbacks in 2009 and 2011. You can see my comment on this possibility here. For this diary I’ll just say that until we get a clear statement from Warner one way or another I wouldn’t count on the Democratic lead up to 2013 to come alive with announcements.

Next, to borrow from Lowell, “why would any sane Democrat WANT to be governor of Virginia?”  

The best case scenario for any Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2013 would be to win (duh) and have a strong Lt. Governor candidate who also wins and helps secure control of a 20-20 State Senate (without risking any special elections that could cost the party). Picking up control of the House of Delegates isn’t a best case scenario, it’s utopian! Even the realistic best case scenario forces the next Democratic Governor to deal with a Republican House of Delegates, much like Time Kaine during his last two years.

If the Democratic candidate for Governor wins in 2013 he or she will spend most of the time blocking bad Republican proposals, not building strong Democratic legislative victories. That’s just a rational expectation, one that argues that the important issue in 2013 is less about finding the most bold forward-thinking champion and more about finding the candidate who will be most serious about party building in the long term.

The announcement of former Congressman Perriello that he will be working at CAP for at least the next year, if not more, tends to indicate that we won’t have much of a choice going into 2013 about finding the most bold forward-thinking champion. So let’s now dwell on that point.

To borrow heavily from my comments (See here and here), forward-thinking Democrats should be more concerned about finding a strong champion for Lt. Governor so that we have the best candidate available in 2017 and someone who can spend at least two years at the power table in Richmond brokering deals and ensuring the Commonwealth doesn’t entirely go off the rails.

The biggest challenge to Virginia Democrats, one I’ve conveniently neglected in my comments, is the strong challenge to my rosy assumptions (hopes?) that our party can make steady gains throughout the next decade in the House of Delegates.

In 2001, the first post-Republican gerrymandering election in Virginia, only one Republican incumbent was defeated by a Democrat, when Jack Rust was defeated by Chap Petersen. We lost scores of other seats that year because of gerrymandering. Not a good year.

Two years later, in 2003, not a single incumbent Republican State Senator was defeated (we lost one seat with Byrne’s retirement), and only a single incumbent Republican Delegate was defeated (Tom Bolvin defeated by Mark Sickles). We gained three additional open seats and lost another seat due to the retirement of an incumbent.

In 2005, with Tim Kaine winning, we again defeated only one incumbent Republican Delegate (Dick Black defeated by David Poisson). We netted four seats, but this was again due to open seats. And then there was Waddell’s race, which I view as a very unusual local situation.

In 2007, when we finally won the State Senate, we knocked off three Republican State Senators and picked up a fourth seat because the Republican primary vote was crazy enough to reject Marty Williams. In the House of Delegates we defeated one incumbent Republican Delegate and picked up three open seats. And Waddell lost.

I don’t even need to bring up 2009 and 2011 . . .

The challenge for Virginia Democrats is defeating Republican incumbents, instead of just winning open seats. Our best year was 2007 with the defeat of three incumbent State Senators. We’ve never managed to defeat more than one incumbent Republican Delegate a year in the last decade!

We did well winning open seats over the last decade, but the Virginia House Democrats need to step up their game if we want to have a hope of becoming relevant by the end of the decade. No one would be surprised by that verdict, I know many in Richmond already feel the same way and are looking for ways to improve their game in the future.

I’ll end with these, more far fetched, observations.

Winning in 2013 may be difficult, but I believe that a strong performance by Obama and Kaine next year will show Virginia Democrats that we can chart a way back to statewide victory. In both 2001 and 2005 we knocked off incumbent Republican delegates by combining strong Gubernatorial performance in the district with aggressive candidates. I believe there are a number of Delegate districts where Obama performed well in 2008, will do well well in 2012, are trending Democratic and will favor us in 2013, but are arguably not on the radar of the state party right now. It’s important for the netroots to start now in playing a role in recruiting strong forward-thinking Democratic challengers in these sorts of districts.

Virginia Democrats are already talking about targeting the 12th (Blacksburg), 87th (where Kondratick only narrowly lost), and 93rd (Williamsburg). If we were only able to pick up three seats in 2013 I think that would still be a good year, but I think if we work now to expand the playing field it will help the party pick up more seats. Even though we’ve only knocked off only one incumbent and picked up around three open seats a cycle, we have also seriously contested a handful of other races to ensure the Republicans aren’t able to focus all of their resources in just a few seats.

In order to generate further controversy and discussion, I’m going to throw out some names that I’d like to see run in 2013. Please join the list. Consider it a Dream Team.

Bobby Scott.

Phil Forgit.

Aneesh Chopra.

Your choice here!

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