New Virginia Poll: Northam 42%-Gillespie 37%; Fairfax 43%-Vogel 38%; Herring 45%-Adams 39%

To date, there have been two reputable/high-quality polls since the June 13 Virginia primary — Quinnipiac University, which had Ralph Northam up 8 points (47%-39%) over Ed Gillespie; and Monmouth University, which had the race tied. So those two average out to a four-point lead for Northam. Now, we have a new poll from VCU’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs which has Northam with a 5-point lead (42%-37%) over Gillespie; very much in sync with the 4-point-lead average of the other two post-primary polls. As always, I’d take these polls with a grain of salt, given the questionable track record polling has had here in Virginia in recent years. With that, here are a few highlights.

• Other than the 42%-37% lead for Northam among Virginia likely voters, “Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra polled at 6 percent, while 13 percent of voters remained undecided in the governor’s race.”
• Not surprisingly, Northam/Fairfax/Herring lead big in northern Virginia while Gillespie/Vogel/Adams lead in the western, rural parts of the state.
• This is bizarre, given that Republicans offer nothing to people struggling to find a job: “Those who are not employed were more likely to support the Republican candidate and those who are employed part-time were more likely to support the Democrat.”
• “Democrat Justin Fairfax holds a five-point lead in the lieutenant governor’s race, with 43 percent of likely voters supporting him and 38 percent supporting Republican Jill Vogel. Fifteen percent of likely voters remain undecided. “
• “In the attorney general race, 45 percent of likely voters favor Democrat Mark Herring and 39 percent support Republican John Adams. Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided.”
• “A plurality (48 percent) of likely voters responded that they would rather the Democrats control the General Assembly. Forty-one percent said they would prefer Republican control.”