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Yet ANOTHER New Poll Shows Essentially a Dead Heat in the Virginia Governor’s Race

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Interesting, I barely even realized that Mason-Dixon Polling was still alive and kicking. But yes, they apparently are, and here’s their latest poll, hot off the presses – of the Virginia governor’s race.

“Democrat Ralph Northam holds a very slim 44%-43%
statewide lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, with 2% supporting Libertarian Cliff  Hyra and 11% still undecided.” So…yeah, based on the last three polls, which show Northam +5, tied and +1, this race looks like nearly a dead heat at this point. Which is crazy, by the way, with Trump in the White House and with Democrats wildly over-performing all across the country the past few months. What is going on here? Theories?

“Northam is dominating in Northern Virginia, where he holds a commanding 57%-30% advantage, but Gillespie is off-setting that with a cumulative 54%-34% lead in the state’s three primarily rural regions — Central Virginia/Shenandoah (53%-36%), Lynchburg/Southside (52%-35%) and Roanoke/Southwest (57%-32%).” Wait, I thought nominating a “moderate” Democrat from rural Virginia was supposed to help us win there. Yeah, worked really well in 2009, when rural conservadem Creigh Deeds…got clobbered by 17 points. 

“The race is closer in Hampton Roads, where Northam is ahead 45%-39%, and the Richmond Metro area which is essentially even — Gillespie leading 45%-44%.” Northam needs to win big in Hampton Roads and also win the Richmond area.

“One factor that might give Northam an inside track is that there is a higher percentage of undecided black voters (18%) and those who identify themselves as Democrats (13%) — voters who strongly support him — than there are among undecided whites (9%) and Republicans (11%) — groups who strongly support
Gillespie.”  What’s THAT all about???

This poll was “of 625 registered Virginia voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.”

Bottom line: not particularly encouraging, other than the fact that Gillespie, the Koch brothers, etc. have been pounding Northam for the past couple months with minimal response and still haven’t managed to give their Washington, DC corporate lobbyist pal “Enron Ed” Gillespie a lead…