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Yet ANOTHER New Poll Shows Essentially a Dead Heat in the Virginia Governor’s Race


Interesting, I barely even realized that Mason-Dixon Polling was still alive and kicking. But yes, they apparently are, and here’s their latest poll, hot off the presses – of the Virginia governor’s race.

“Democrat Ralph Northam holds a very slim 44%-43%
statewide lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, with 2% supporting Libertarian Cliff  Hyra and 11% still undecided.” So…yeah, based on the last three polls, which show Northam +5, tied and +1, this race looks like nearly a dead heat at this point. Which is crazy, by the way, with Trump in the White House and with Democrats wildly over-performing all across the country the past few months. What is going on here? Theories?

“Northam is dominating in Northern Virginia, where he holds a commanding 57%-30% advantage, but Gillespie is off-setting that with a cumulative 54%-34% lead in the state’s three primarily rural regions — Central Virginia/Shenandoah (53%-36%), Lynchburg/Southside (52%-35%) and Roanoke/Southwest (57%-32%).” Wait, I thought nominating a “moderate” Democrat from rural Virginia was supposed to help us win there. Yeah, worked really well in 2009, when rural conservadem Creigh Deeds…got clobbered by 17 points. 

“The race is closer in Hampton Roads, where Northam is ahead 45%-39%, and the Richmond Metro area which is essentially even — Gillespie leading 45%-44%.” Northam needs to win big in Hampton Roads and also win the Richmond area.

“One factor that might give Northam an inside track is that there is a higher percentage of undecided black voters (18%) and those who identify themselves as Democrats (13%) — voters who strongly support him — than there are among undecided whites (9%) and Republicans (11%) — groups who strongly support
Gillespie.”  What’s THAT all about???

This poll was “of 625 registered Virginia voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.”

Bottom line: not particularly encouraging, other than the fact that Gillespie, the Koch brothers, etc. have been pounding Northam for the past couple months with minimal response and still haven’t managed to give their Washington, DC corporate lobbyist pal “Enron Ed” Gillespie a lead…

  • Stephen Spiker

    In one of these surveys, Northam’s combined “never heard of”/”no opinion of” was over 50%. No-showing at events across the state doesn’t help, either.

  • Carter Turner

    Comparisons to Deeds’s race in 2009 are meaningless. It’s no mystery why Northam isn’t doing as well in Roanoke and SW …

    • Why do you think that’s the case?

      • Carter Turner

        Because people are really upset about the pipeline and it’s dampened their enthusiasm for Northam.

        • James Brown

          Deeds did better in Roanoke and SW partially because Deeds represented parts of SW Virginia, but mostly because SWVA has become increasingly Republican over the years. Rick Boucher lost in 2010, a lot of Democratic state House and handful of state Senators lost in 2011 and 2013, and even after that, Clinton well underperformed Obama (who performed pretty badly) in most of the districts in SWVA.

          House District 3. Deeds had 30%, McAuliffe had 25%, Northam will be lucky to hit 22%. They went from 25% Obama to 16% Clinton. That’s the reality – even with a strong economic message that appeals to moderate white rural voters, SWVA has firmly become a Republican stronghold, and that’s not going to change for a generation or more.