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If Q-Poll Is Correct, Dems Are in For a Helluva Night on 11/7…But +17 Seems Just a Wee Bit Outlier-ish

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I’d love to believe this new poll from Quinnipiac, but…really? I’ve been hearing more about internals in the range of a 4-8-point lead for Ralph Northam.  Again, I hope Q-Poll is right, but this one just seems outlier-ish to me.

With overwhelming support from non-white voters and double-digit leads among both men and women, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 53 – 36 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

Today’s result compares to a 53 – 39 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 72 – 15 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. White voters are divided 46 – 46 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 56 – 36 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men go Democratic 51 – 37 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra.

Independent voters tip to the Democrat 47 – 42 percent, with 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 97 – 1 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 86 – 8 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra.

Virginia likely voters disapprove 60 – 34 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing, compared to a 62 – 35 percent disapproval rating October 18.

“In 2014, Republican Ed Gillespie came oh-so-close to upsetting Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, at least in part because 2014 was a Republican year and Gillespie benefited from the national pro-GOP mood. But with President Donald Trump’s approval ratings in the dumpster in Virginia and in the nation, this year the shoe is on the other foot for Gillespie,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Anything, of course, is possible in politics. But the size and scope of Lt. Gov. Northam’s lead is impressive. He leads among most voter groups. He even carries men.”

“And history does not provide many examples of candidates who have come back from this large a deficit so close to the actual voting,” Brown added.

From October 25 – 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 916 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

  • Edwin

    I am getting a little bit of whiplash between the different polls and reports on voter and volunteer enthusiasm. One day I read how voters are mobilized, the next day I read how two “low octane” candidates are struggling to motivate potential voters?

    I guess the best poll is on election night and I’m doing the best I can to get people out.

    • Agreed, it’s kinda crazy…just gotta keep working to elect Dems on 11/7 and hopefully the only poll that counts will take care of itself…

  • Christopher Nye

    Just what we don’t need, a poll that would suggest we have this in the bag.

    • Just wait a few hours, there undoubtedly will be another poll showing that we do NOT have this in the bag – lol.

  • Kenneth Ferland

    While this is an outlier compared to other polls, it is consistent with past Quinipiac polls so their is an internal consistency among them. It all comes down to how they are constructing their likely voter model. If your relying on past elections to model from and the electorate is changed substantially then you will miss ‘waves’, but if you try to measure the change in the electorate you have a very hard time because you’re just calling people and asking how ‘enthusiastic’ or ‘riled up’ they are and this is very subjective and hard to determine if this will actually result in them going to the polls or not.

    • Right ,and in that respect the latest Q-Poll is encouraging, because it shows Northam increasing from +10 to +17 since September.

      • Anthony Shifflett

        There are national implications for this vote here in Virginia. If we can torpedo the Republicans here, the orange one takes the hit too…

  • OK, one of these polls is wildly wrong — Quinnipiac has the race WIDENING in favor of the Dems, from +10 in September to +17 now, while this Schar School poll has the race NARROWING, from a 13-point Northam lead a few weeks ago to only a 5-point Northam lead now. WTF? In other results, according to the Schar School poll, Mark Herring leads by 8 points (51%-43%) and Justin Fairfax leads by 6 points (49%-43%).