Home Ralph Northam WaPo-Schar School Poll: Northam 53%-Gillespie 40%; Herring 52%-Adams 41%

WaPo-Schar School Poll: Northam 53%-Gillespie 40%; Herring 52%-Adams 41%


Is this new poll by the Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at GMU accurate? An outlier from all the other polls showing a close race? I don’t know, although I lean towards “outlier” while hoping it isn’t. With that here are the highlights.

P.S. I agree 100% with Larry Sabato, who tweets: “New WaPo poll on VA GOV has Northam over Gillespie by 53-40 (likely voters). Much bigger than recent private D polls. Skepticism warranted…In 2013 WaPo poll had McAuliffe up 12 toward the end of fall campaign. He won by ~2.5%…Spring GOV primaries 2017: WaPo-Schar had Perriello up 2 and Gillespie up 20. Northam beat Perriello by 12 and Gillespie won by just 1%.”

  • The top-line numbers are Ralph Northam 53%-Ed Gillespie 40%-Cliff Hyra 4% among likely Virginia voters. If Northam were to win by 13 points, we’re talking about major gains in the House of Delegates as well.
  • Among whites, it’s Gillespie 51%-Northam 41%; among non-whites, it’s Northam 80%-Gillespie 13%. Among men, it’s Northam 48%-Gillespie 43%; among women, it’s Northam with a huge, 58%-37% lead.
  • In the D.C. suburbs, Northam is kicking butt at 61%-35%. In the Northern Virginia “exurbs,” Northam also is leading big, at 55%-33%. Northam leads by 56%-40% in the Richmond area and by 58%-36% in Tidewater.  Which leaves one area, Southwest Virginia, where Gillespie leads, by a 53%-37% margin.
  • For Attorney General, Democrat/incumbent Mark Herring holds a 52%-41% lead over Republican John Adams.
  • Only 33% of Virginia voters approve of the job Trump’s doing, while 59% disapprove. The question is, who are these 33% and how many hours of Fox do they watch every day? LOL
  • Voters hold a 44%-28% net favorable view of Ralph Northam and a 38%-24% net favorable view of Ed Gillespie.
  • As usual, the most important issues in voters’ minds are health care and the economy, followed by education, illegal immigration, the environment and Confederate monuments (at just 3%).
  • By a 55%-37% margin, Virginia voters oppose “banning all abortions except in the cases of incest, rape or to save a pregnant woman’s life.”
  • By a 57%-31% margin, Virginia voters support keeping Confederate monuments on government property.
  • By a 59%-35% margin, Virginia voters do NOT believe that illegal immigration is a problem in their part of the state. Only 14% believe it’s a “very serious” problem.”
  • 54% of voters say Trump will not be a factor in their vote for Virginia governor, with 28% saying their vote will in part be to express opposition to Trump and 17% to express support for Trump.
  • By a 56%-17% margin, voters believe that Ed Gillespie supports Trump a “great deal” (23%) or “good amount” (33%).
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