Check out the interesting new slide show on Election 2018 by Bruce Mehlman (note: Mehlman’s a Republican, but I think this analysis is generally on the mark).
Among other findings:
- the House GOP majority is in grave danger
- Senate Dems are in pretty good shape, but…it’s “all about turnout”
- battles over wall funding and nominees likely in the “lame duck” Congress; major turnover in Congressional committee leadership likely
- the Trump administration is likely to “double down” on immigration, Obamacare, etc, etc.
- a Dem-led House will see “aggressive oversight,” “stop/reverse Trump,” “potential deals” and “rally the base”
- Republicans are becoming the party of men (I’d add heavily white men) and those without college educations; Dems the converse
- As for the 2020 Dem presidential field, Mehlman lists 23 possible candidates, ranking them in terms of how “establishment” and “progressive” they are. Note that Virginia’s own Terry McAuliffe is ranked as the LEAST progressive and the MOST “establishment” out of the 23 possible Dem candidates – basically the polar opposite of Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, but not that different from Joe Biden. So…if you’re a conservative Dem who isn’t a fan of “disrupters” and prefers the “establishment,” it looks like TMac might be your horse for 2020. I’d add that you might also like TMac if you loooove corporate America and politicians who are cozy with corporate America. Personally, I’ll pass on TMac and look at folks like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, Amy Klobuchar, etc. How about you?