New Poll: Democrats Lead 49%-42% in Virginia General Assembly Elections; 59% Say They’re “Certain to Vote”; Northam Approval at 47%-29%

There are some interesting findings in the new Virginia poll by the Washington Post.

• First, some good news: By a 49%-42% margin, Virginia registered voters say they’d vote for the Democratic House of Delegates candidate running in their district over the Republican candidate. [UPDATE: The WaPo says, “That edge widens slightly among those who say they are certain to vote, who prefer Democrats 52 percent to 41 percent.”]
• Now, some “meh” news: Only 47% of Virginia registered voters say they’re “following the election this fall for General Assembly in Virginia” either “very closely” or “somewhat closely,” while 32% say “not at all” and 23% say “not too closely.” That’s significantly lower than the 58% of registered voters who said they were following the 2017 governor’s race “closely” at this point. On the other hand, it’s 9 points higher than the 38% of registered voters who said they were following the General Assembly elections closely at this point in 2007 (when, I’d point out, Democrats picked up four seats in the House of Delegates and four seats in the State Senate).
• Some better news: Currently, 59% of registered voters say they are “certain to vote,” while 21% say they will “probably vote.” That’s actually good news, as it’s similar to the 60% who said they were “certain to vote” and 19% “probably vote” on 10/2/17…just weeks before the Democratic “blue wave” in that election.
• Despite 55% saying they’re “bothered” by the “blackface” photo, Gov. Ralph Northam’s approval rating has rebounded, to 47% approve-29% disapprove. LG Justin Fairfax is at 39%-25%, and AG Mark Herring at 42%-19%. Kinda surprising, actually. [UPDATE: The WaPo says, “Nearly 3 in 10 Virginia voters say their view of Northam is ‘very important’ to their vote, and Republicans lead by 14 percentage points among those voters.”]
• By a 43%-39% margin, Virginia voters do NOT think that Ralph Northam should run for elected office again. By a 36%-33% margin (30% have “no opinion”) voters think that Justin Fairfax *should* run for office again. And by a 40%-26% margin (33% have “no opinion”), voters think that AG Mark Herring *should* run for office again.
• Trump’s approval rating in Virginia is terrible, at 39%-58% among all adults and 40%-58% among registered voters.
• Here’s a key finding: 70% of Virginia registered voters say that their view of Trump is important (and 51% say VERY important) in deciding their vote for the Virginia General Assembly this year. So basically, the key for Democrats is to get all those voters angry and disgusted at Trump to come out and vote Democratic on November 5th!
• By a 58%-37% margin, voters support “stricter gun laws in Virginia.” That includes 57%-41% support for “a statewide ban on the sale of assault weapons”; 88%-10% support for “requiring background checks on all potential gun buyers, including private sales and gun shows”; 56%-39% support for “a statewide ban on high-capacity ammunition clips, meaning those containing more than 10 bullets”; 82%-16% support for “a state law allowing the police to take guns away from people who have been found by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others”; and 58%-39% support for “a state law barring an individual from buying more than one handgun per month “