In Closing Days of 2020 Campaign, Republicans Shift Ad Resources From VA02 to VA05 and VA07; Sen. Mark Warner Dominates Radio; Pro-Biden/Anti-Trump Ads Dominate Cable TV

The shift by the Congressional Leadership Fund has left former Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Virginia Beach) with a diminished TV presence heading into the final week before Election Day.

Weekly TV Spending by the Congressional Leadership Fund

Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria launched her sharpest attack yet on Scott Taylor regarding a 2018 scheme that led two of Taylor’s former campaign staffers to plead guilty to forging signatures on ballot petitions. The ad features ex-Democratic Del. Bobby Mathieson (identified as a “retired U.S. Marshal”) who plays the role of a sleuth trying to get to the bottom of the “Scott Taylor fraud case.” Mathieson cites the local newspaper to claim Taylor himself is still under investigation. The ad ends with Mathieson standing in front of the Virginia Beach courthouse. “Scott Taylor has a lot better chance of ending up here,” Mathieson says, motioning over his shoulder, “than back in Congress.”

Among Virginia’s three congressional seats in play this year, voters in the 5th Congressional District tend to be more rural, older and more conservative. And the messaging in TV ads reflects these differences.

For instance, Republicans running in the more suburban 2nd and 7th congressional districts avoid mention of President Trump in their TV ads. But 5th District Republican candidate Bob Good embraces the President and includes the President in two of the broadcast TV spots released by his campaign.

Good and Republican groups running ads in the 5th District have also spent more time tapping into rural voters’ fears about recent protests and looting in Richmond and other cities. Several ads seek to use the audio of Democrat Cameron Webb’s own words against him. In an interview with a local TV station that aired in mid-June, just five days before the Democratic primary, Webb said “all of this extra spending on police is actually part of the problem.” In an attack ad that began airing Oct. 17, the Congressional Leadership Fund includes that clip along with the calls to defund police from two “radical left” congresswomen: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. A female narrator says, “Cameron Webb — he’s with them, not with us.”

Republicans struck at first-term U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger with two new ads last week claiming that she would raise taxes. The Congressional Leadership Fund launched a 30-second spot labelling a vote for Spanberger a “vote for Pelosi tax hikes.” Nick Freitas launched a similar attack in his new ad, saying that Spanberger opposed a tax cut for individuals, and supports a payroll tax hike. The ad ends with a string of constituents and small business owners criticizing Spanberger, with a barber from Chesterfield County saying “Spanberger has left us out to dry.”

Total Cable TV Spending

When it comes to TV ads, the presidential campaign and outside groups have invested more in local cable TV than in more expensive broadcast. The Lincoln Project, a Republican-led group opposed to President Trump, has accounted for nearly $3.5 million in cable ads — more than the combined spending of all pro-Trump groups.