UVA COVID-19 Model Pre-Thanksgiving Update: “1 in 10 gatherings of 10 people will include at least one person with COVID-19…2 in 10 for gatherings of 20 people”

The latest update of the UVA COVID-19 model is out, and it’s not great. Happy Thanksgiving? Hmmm…

• “Cases are surging nationally. More than 1 million cases were reported in the US over the last 7 days according to the CDC.”
• “Nationally, incidence almost doubled over the past two weeks.”
• “In Virginia incidence is growing more slowly, but steadily.”
• “Surges in populous Fairfax and Loudoun, and slow growth in other metro areas, portend rapid case growth statewide.”
• “Statewide, the reproduction rate has been above 1.0 since late September. It remains above 1.0 in most regions as well.”
• “Virginians should take extra precautions over Thanksgiving, including avoiding travel, indoor gatherings, and visiting persons at high risk, and isolating before or after any risky holiday activities.”