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Virginia Republicans Choose Their Statewide Nominees on May 8, While Early Voting for Dems Starts in 17 Days. Where Do We Stand Right Now?

Former Del. Chris Saxman (R) has a "Republican Statewide Survey of 472 participants" and a "Democratic Candidate survey [that] is still developing"

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With early voting starting on April 23 for the June 8 Virginia Democratic primaries, and with the Republicans selecting their nominees on May 8, where do we stand right now in the statewide races?  Unfortunately, it’s hard to tell, because there’s been almost no public polling for whatever reasons, and there hasn’t even been any campaign “internal” polling leaked of late. What do we have to go on so far?

  • This February 19 Wason Center poll, which found: on the Democratic side, 49% undecided (plus 5% “don’t know” or “refused”); of the remaining 46% who actually expressed a preference, it was Terry McAuliffe 26%-Justin Fairfax 12%-Jennifer McClellan 4%-Jennifer Carroll Foy 4%-Lee Carter 1%. And on the Republican side, the gubernatorial “horse race” was 55% undecided (plus 7% “don’t know” or “refused”). Of the remaining 38% who actually expressed a preference, it was Amanda Chase 17%-Kirk Cox 10%-Pete Snyder 6%-Glenn Youngkin 3%, with nobody else registering a political pulse at this point.
  • A February 12 YouGov poll: Democrats: Undecided 46%; Terry McAuliffe 33%; Jennifer McClellan 6%; Jennifer Carroll Foy 6%; Lee Carter 5%; Justin Fairfax 4%; Republicans: Undecided 54%; Amanda Chase 19%; Pete Snyder 10%; Kirk Cox 6%; Merle Rutledge 5%; Glenn Youngkin 3%; Kurt Santini 1%; Sergio de la Pena <1%.
  • This internal Jennifer Carroll Foy poll, which found BEFORE providing a “balanced introduction of all the candidates”: McAuliffe 42%-Fairfax 14%-Carroll Foy 7%-McClellan 6% (note that Carter wasn’t included in this “internal” poll, the question being how much of a difference his inclusion would have made in the results). And after a balanced introduction of all the candidates, the race became a two-person contest between Jennifer Carroll Foy and Terry McAuliffe…Carroll Foy’s vote share swelled by 20 percentage points (27% Carroll Foy/37% McAuliffe/14% Fairfax/11% McClellan).
  • This internal Jennifer McClellan campaign poll, which found the race at Undecided 38%; McAuliffe 32%; Fairfax 16%; McClellan 8%; Carroll Foy 5%.

There are also PredictIt prediction markets for the Dems (McAuliffe at 89 cents, Carroll Foy at 9 cents, McClellan at 3 cents, Fairfax and Carter at 1 cent each) and for the Republicans (Cox at 49 cents, Snyder at 25 cents, Youngkin at 25 cents, Chase at 8 cents).

And that’s about it right now. Which is why it was interesting to see former Del. Chris Saxman (R)’s post with the results from a “Republican Statewide Survey of 472 participants.” According to Saxman:

  • For Governor: “The race for the Republican nomination for Governor is rated as Toss Up between Delegate Kirk Cox, Pete Snyder, and Glenn Youngkin,” with Chase having “fallen well back of the top three.”
  • For LG: “It…looks like a three way race for the LG nomination with Delegate Glenn Davis and former delegates Tim Hugo and Winsome Sears. “
  • And finally, for AG: “Delegate Jason Miyares is in very strong position to capture the nomination”

As for the Democrats, Saxman says “Our Democratic Candidate survey is still developing but here are some observations based on the input to date”: 1) for governor, “Terry McAuliffe is likely to win but can he get over 50%?” and “State Senator Jennifer McClellan seems to be running the best campaign of the challengers to McAuliffe”; 2) for AG, “I still have the Mark Herring – Jay Jones Attorney General race as my Upset Alert for the June Primary.” And nobody seems to know what’s going on with the Dems’ LG race…

I have no particular reason to disagree with Saxman on the Republican side. On the Democratic side for governor, I’m pretty much going with the polls and PredictIt. For LG, I have no idea who’s going to win, and for AG, I basically agree with Saxman. What do you think?

 

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