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A Few Virginia House of Delegates Districts to Keep an Eye on Tuesday Night

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See below for some of the top/most-competitive Virginia House of Delegates races to keep an eye on Tuesday night.

Of course we need to reelect Del. @WendyGooditisVA (D-HD10), in a mostly Loudoun County district that she won with just 52.3% of the vote in 2019. If Gooditis is winning this election, it’s a good sign that Democrats are going to hang on to the House of Delegates. If not, well…let’s try not to think about that!

A marquee Virginia House of Delegates race is in HD12 (Montgomery County, Giles County, Radford, Pulaski County), where Del. @ChrisHurstVA (D) won with 53.6% of the vote in 2019. This one’s a must-win for Democrats…and will be a major sign of how the night’s going on Tuesday.

If Democrats are having a good night on Tuesday, we could see Democrat Debra Gardner potentially winning in HD27 against incumbent Del. Roxann Robinson (R). This is a district in Chesterfield County – a  key county to keep an eye on in general on Tuesday night! – which Ralph Northam barely won (51%-48%) in 2017, and which Robinson barely won (50.25%-49.63%) in 2019. So again, keep an eye on this one to see if Democrat Debra Gardner’s able to pull this one out!

Del. @JoshuaCole (D-HD28), in a Stafford/F’burg district that Northam barely won (51%-48%) in 2017. This is a big one to keep an eye on Tuesday night, and also very important for Democrats keeping their slim, 55-45 majority in the VA House of Delegates. Go Del. Cole!

Del. Dan Helmer (D-HD40) represents an outer suburbs (Fairfax/Prince William County) district Ralph Northam won 55%-44% in 2017. Obviously, Democrats need to be winning districts like this one…both in this election and in 2022.

If Democrats are having a really BAD night on Tuesday, it’s possible that Del. Dawn Adams could lose to Republican Mark Earley in HD68 (Chesterfield County, Richmond City, a bit of Henrico County). I don’t anticipate this, given that Ralph Northam won this district in 2017 by 13 points and Adams was reelected in 2019 with 54.6% of the vote, but again…this is just thrown in here for an example of what could happen if Dems are having a really, really bad election night.

HD73 in Henrico County (Richmond suburbs)…a district Northam won 53%-45% in 2017. This is another big one for Democrats Tuesday night; really gotta win this one.

We could see a close contest in HD75 (Southside Virginia), where Del. Roslyn Tyler (D) only defeated Republican Otto Wachsmann (who is running again this year) by a 51%-49% margin in 2019. This is a key race to watch, in determining whether or not Democrats will hold their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates this year…

In HD83 (VA Beach), voters need to reelect Del. @nancyguyva over her far-right extremist challenger, who “impersonated a federal judge to harass and intimidate his own employees.” Guy won with just 49.97% of the vote in 2019, albeit over a much stronger opponent (then-incumbent Del. Chris Stolle) than extremist Tim Anderson this time around. Bottom line: this race could be a nail-biter, and also a major sign of how things are going Tuesday night.

HD84 (VA Beach) was won by Ralph Northam with 52% of the vote in 2017 and by Del. Glenn Davis (R) with 51.2% of the vote in 2019. So we’ll see how Kim Melnyk (D) does this election; if she’s winning this, we’re almost certainly having a very good election night!

In HD85 (Virginia Beach), Del. Alex Askew (D) won his election in 2019 with 51.6% of the vote. If Askew’s winning on Tuesday night with at least that percent of the vote, it’s a very good sign for Democrats. 

If Democrats are having a really good night on Tuesday, we could see Finale Norton (D) potentially defeat incumbent Del. Rob Bloxom (R) in HD100 (Accomack County, Norfolk, Northampton County). Ralph Northam won this district 53%-46% in 2017, while Jill Vogel (R) defeated Justin Fairfax (D) 51%-49%. As for Bloxom, he was last reelected in 2019 with just 51.89% of the vote (against Democrat Phil Hernandez), so…keep an eye on this one!

Those are just a few districts to watch on Tuesday night. It also will be interesting to see how Democrats do in places like HD13 (Del. Danica Roem in a 57% Northam district in Prince William County/Manassas Park City), Paul Siker against far-right Republican Del. Dave LaRock in HD33 (a 45% Northam district in Loudoun/Frederick/Clarke counties), HD50 (Michelle Maldonado in a 58% Northam district in Prince William County/Manassas), HD51 (Briana Sewell in a 55% Northam district in Prince William County), HD63 (Del. Lashrecse Aird in a 56% Northam district in Petersburg City, Dinwiddie County and Chesterfield County), HD72 (Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg in a 54% Northam district in Henrico County), etc.

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