Results of Blue Virginia’s Twitter Polls on the VA04 Democratic Nomination, as Well as Several Key State Senate Democratic Primaries

We often hear how social media isn’t “real life,” and although obviously real people use social media, there’s undoubtedly truth to that assertion, in the sense that social media can be non-representative demographically, ideologically, etc.  For instance, Pew Research found that “Democrats who use Twitter tend to be more liberal than non-users…60% of Democrats on Twitter describe their political leanings as liberal (with 24% saying they are “very” liberal), compared with 43% among those who are not Twitter users (only 12% of whom say they are very liberal).” Also, “Twitter-using Democrats and Republicans alike tend to be younger and have higher levels of educational attainment compared with members of each party who do not use the platform.”

As for Twitter polls, they are definitely NOT to be considered scientific in any way. For one thing, many Virginia Democratic primary voters might not even be on Twitter, or might not use it much, etc. So why even do Twitter polls at all? Mostly, to try and get a sense of where a particular Twitter account’s followers – in this case, Blue Virginia’s 27,000 followers – are on a particular issue, or a Democratic primary or whatever.  But even then, these polls can’t really prevent one campaign or the other from swamping them with their supporters, and they’re definitely not a statistically significant sampling.

So with all those (major) caveats, here are the results from the Blue Virginia Twitter polls that just concluded, asking people who they’d support for the Democratic nominations in SD11 (Del. Sally Hudson vs. State Senator Creigh Deeds); SD13 (State Senator Joe Morrissey vs. former Del. Lashrecse Aird); SD18 (State Senator Louise Lucas vs. State Senator Lionell Spruill); SD29 (Del. Elizabeth Guzman vs. State Senator Jeremy McPike); SD33 (former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy vs. former Del. Hala Ayala); and the VA04 U.S. House race (State Senator Jennifer McClellan, Del. Lamont Bagby, State Senator Joe Morrissey, and “other” – former Del. Joseph Preston and civil rights advocate Tavorise Marks). And the results are:

• SD11: Sen. Creigh Deeds 71.3%-Del. Sally Hudon 28.7%
• SD13: Former Del. Lashrecse Aird 86.2% – Sen. Joe Morrissey 13.8%
• SD18: Sen. Louise Lucas 82.6%- Sen. Lionell Spruill 17.4%
• SD29: Del. Elizabeth Guzman 61.5%-Sen. Jeremy McPike 38.5%
• SD33: Former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy 64.3%-Former Del. Hala Ayala 35.7%
• VA04: Sen. Jennifer McClellan 84%-Del. Lamont Bagby 7.5%-Sen. Joe Morrissey 5.4%-Other 3.1%