How Did Blue Virginia’s State Senate, House of Delegates Predictions Do?

On June 17, I made predictions for VA Senate, and on June 18 for House of Delegates. So how did I do? Let’s take a look!

VA SENATE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

• SD04 (Roanoke Valley): Trish White-Boyd vs. Luke Priddy vs. DA Pierce (I’d say this one leans to White-Boyd due to her money advantage and name ID, plus the fact that women tend to do very well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly seats)//White-Boyd won, as predicted
• SD11 (Cville/Nelson/Amherst): Sen. Creigh Deeds vs. Del. Sally Hudson (Tossup. This one really comes down to the demographics of voters, including their average age, gender, etc. – a younger, more diverse electorate helps Hudson – and whether they’re disproportionately from Charlottesville/Albemarle or not – the more they’re from the core “blue” areas, the better for Hudson)//Deeds won narrowly (51%-49%) so “Tossup” wasn’t too far off the mark
• SD13 (Henrico/Petersburg/Hopewell): Sen. Joe Morrissey vs. Del. Lashrecse Aird (Given her money advantage and endorsements, plus the fact that she’s a woman – and women tend to do very well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly seats – and that Morrissey has received nothing but bad publicity the past few months, Aird is likely to win this one…unless Republicans turn out in droves for Morrissey, but that’s unlikely)//Aird won, as predicted
• SD14 (Richmond/Henrico): Sen. Lamont Bagby vs. Katie Gooch (Sen. Bagby is very likely if not 100% certain to win this one)//Bagby won big, as predicted
• SD18 (Chesapeake/Portsmouth): Sen. Louise Lucas vs. Sen. Lionell Spruill (Tossup on this one, although my gut tells me that Lucas will eke it out)//Lucas won, as sort-of predicted
• SD21 (Norfolk): Del. Angelia Williams-Graves vs. Andria McClellan (I’m thinking this one leans towards Williams-Graves, in part due to the fact that it’s a “majority-minority” district, Williams-Graves’ endorsements by former Gov. Ralph Northam and VA House Dems Leader Don Scott, etc.)//Williams-Graves won, as predicted
• SD27 (Fredericksburg area): Joel Griffin vs. Ben Litchfield (Based on the fact that he has a huge cash advantage, I’d say Griffin is favored here, unless Litchfield’s “ground game” can overcome that)//Griffin won, as predicted
• SD29 (Prince William/Stafford): Sen. Jeremy McPike vs. Del. Elizabeth Guzman (There’s been some leaked internal polling indicating that Guzman is leading, but take those with a grain of salt of course; a bigger factor is that  this is a majority-minority district, including 25% Hispanic/Latino; plus women tend to do well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, so…I’d guess this one is a tossup or even leans Guzman, as long as she manages to get her voters out, which can be easier said than done in odd/off-year elections like this one)//This one’s going to a recount…not sure who’s going to win it
• SD31 (Loudoun/Fauquier): Russet Perry vs. Zach Cummings (Strongly leans Perry due to her big cash advantage, as well as far more endorsements and the fact that women tend to do well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly)//Perry won easily, as predicted
• SD32 (Loudoun): Del. Suhas Subramanyam vs. former Del. Ibraheem Samirah (Likely Subramanyam due to a big cash advantage, many more endorsements, etc.)//Subramanyam won easily, as predicted
• SD33 (Prince William/Fairfax): Former Del. Hala Ayala vs. former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy (Likely Carroll Foy due in part to a big cash advantage)//Carroll Foy won easily, as predicted
• SD35 (Fairfax): Sen. Dave Marsden vs. Heidi Drauschak (Drauschak has outraised Marsden, $770k to $188k, in 2023, plus women tend to beat men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, but Marsden works very hard, has received some big endorsements – Sen. Tim Kaine, Sen. Mark Warner, Rep. Gerry Connolly, etc. – and supposedly has knocked on tons of doors in this district personally – although so has Drauschak – so…tossup or maybe even leans Drauschak?)//Missed this one BIG TIME, as Marsden won easily
• SD36 (Fairfax): Sen. George Barker vs. Stella Pekarsky (Leans Pekarsky for a bunch of reasons, including: 1) the district is overwhelmingly “new” to Barker, while Pekarsky represents much of it on the Fairfax County School Board; 2) Pekarsky is competitive in terms of $$$; 3) women tend to beat men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly. On the other hand, Barker has been endorsed by many of his colleagues in the VA Senate, plus former Governors Northam and McAuliffe, so all of that will help him.)//Pekarsky won, as predicted
• SD37 (Fairfax/Falls Church): Sen. Chap Petersen vs. Saddam Salim (Leans Petersen due to his cash advantage, more than anything, plus the fact that he’ll get some Republicans voting for him – although what percentage, it’s hard to say. But Salim still has a shot in this highly diverse district, much of which is “new” to Petersen)//I’m glad to say I was wrong here, and that Salim won this one!
• SD40 (Arlington): Sen. Barbara Favola vs. James DeVita (100% safe for Favola, given massive advantages in name ID, endorsements, cash, etc.)//Favola won easily, as predicted

VA HOUSE OF DELEGATES DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

• HD07 (Western Fairfax): Mary Barthelson vs. Paul Berry vs. Shyamali Hauth vs. Karen Keys-Gamarra (I’d say this one leans to Karen Keys-Gamarra, based on her endorsement by long-time/retiring Del. Ken Plum. However, don’t count out Shyamali Hauth or Paul Berry)//Keys-Gamarra won, as predicted
• HD15 (Fairfax): Laura Jane Cohen vs. Eric Schmidt vs. Henri Thompson (Very likely Laura Jane Cohen, based on her name ID, the fact that she’s the only elected official in the field, her many endorsements, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly – let alone against two men, etc.)//Cohen won, as predicted
• HD19 (Fairfax/Prince William): Rozia Henson vs. Makya Little vs. Natalie Shorter (This one is a tossup; could go to any of the three candidates in the race)//Henson appears to have won, although it’s still too close to call 
• HD26 (Loudoun): Kannan Srinivasan vs. Sirisha Kompalli (Very likely Kannan Srinivasan, based on massive advantages in fundraising, endorsements, etc.)//Srinivasan won, as predicted
• HD54 (Charlottesville): Bellamy Brown vs. Katrina Callsen vs. Dave Norris (Likely Katrina Callsen, given her big advantage in fundraising, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly – let alone against two men; her numerous endorsements; etc.)//Callsen won, as predicted
• HD55 (Albemarle/Louisa/Fluvanna): Amy Laufer vs. Kellen Squire (Lean or Likely Amy Laufer, based on her fundraising advantage, the fact that she has higher name ID from previously being an elected official and running in a high-profile/big-$$$ VA Senate primary four years ago, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, her endorsements, etc. To win this, Kellen Squire would need a massive “ground game”/field operation.)//Laufer won, as predicted
• HD57 (Western Henrico): Susanna Gibson vs. Bob Shippee (Leans Susanna Gibson, based on her fundraising advantage and the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly)//Gibson won, as predicted
• HD79 (Richmond): Rae Cousins vs. Ann Lambert vs. Richard Walker (Likely Rae Cousins, based on her massive fundraising advantage and the fact that she’s by far the best candidate in this race)//Cousins won, as predicted
• HD80 (Henrico): Destiny Levere Bolling vs. John Dantzler (Likely Destiny Levere Bolling, based on her fundraising advantage, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, her many endorsements, etc.)//Bolling won, as predicted
• HD81 (Eastern Henrico): Del. Delores McQuinn vs. Terrence Walker (Likely Del. Delores McQuinn, based on her name ID as a long-time incumbent, her massive financial advantage, etc.)//McQuinn won, as predicted
• HD82 (Petersburg/Dinwiddie): Kimberly Pope Adams vs. Victor McKenzie (Leans Victor McKenzie; McKenzie has the financial advantage and endorsements from VA Sen. Lamont Bagby, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, VA Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, etc. However, Adams has a shot, given that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly and that she has endorsements of her own. Could be close.)//Adams won – missed this one
• HD84 (Suffolk/Isle of Wight): Nadarius Clark vs. Michele Joyce (Likely Nadarius Clark, based on his huge financial advantage, his previous incumbency/name ID, his many endorsements – VA House Dem Leader Don Scott, Sen. Mamie Locke, former Del. Jay Jones, etc.)//Clark won, as predicted
• HD92 (Norfolk/Chesapeake): Bonita Anthony vs. Kim Sudderth (Leans Kim Sudderth, based mostly on her fundraising advantage, but don’t count Bonita Anthony out.)//Hasn’t been called, but it looks like Anthony will win, in which case I’ll have missed this one
• HD95 (Virginia Beach/Norfolk): Alex Askew vs. Rick James (Very likely Alex Askew, based on the fact that he was previously elected delegate, has high name ID, has a huge advantage in fundraising and endorsements, etc.)//Askew won, as predicted
• HD96 (Virginia Beach): Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler vs. Susan Hippen vs. Brandon Hutchins vs. Sean Monteiro (Tossup or *possibly* leans towards Kelly Convirs-Fowler, based on her being the de facto incumbent in this race against three opponents – who could split the anti-incumbent vote, and late money from Sonjia Smith and Clean Virginia; although note that late money has also gone to Susan Hippen from Dominion and to both Sean Monteiro and Brandon Hutchins from Clean Virginia. Bottom line – it’s possible that Convirs-Fowler, Hippen or Monteiro could win this on Tuesday.)//Convirs-Fowler appears to have *barely* won, as sort of predicted (I hedged  heavily on this one)