New Poll of VA02: Trump-Supporting Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) Up 45%-40%, with 62% of Voters Not Knowing Who Democratic Nominee Missy Cotter Smasal Is

See below for a summary and a few comments on the new Wason Center poll of VA02, a “purple” district centered on Virginia Beach, previously held by Democrat Elaine Luria, now held by Republican Jen Kiggans (since 2022, after redistricting made VA02 a bit “redder” than it had been).

• Rep. Kiggans has a 5-point lead over Democratic nominee Missy Cotter Smasal, but Kiggans is under 50%, which isn’t great for an incumbent, at 45% support (to 40% support for Smasal).
• One key for Cotter Smasal is that 34% have no opinion of her, while another 28% don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. In other words, a majority (62%) of VA02 voters still don’t know who Cotter Smasal is (in contrast, 71% have an opinion of Kiggans – 38% positive, 33% negative). So we’ll see how Smasal does once those percentages shrink, which they presumably will as election day gets closer and advertising cranks up.
• In the US Senate race, Sen. Tim Kaine leads Republican nominee Hung Cao in VA02 by 11 points, 43%-32%.
• In the presidential race, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in VA02, 46%-46% (note: Biden won it 51.4%-46.7% in 2020, but the district got “redder” after redistricting in 2021, with the Cook Political Report now rating it R+2). When it comes to favorability/unfavorability, Harris is at 47%-47% (neutral) in VA02, while Trump is at 45%-49% (minus 4). That seems a bit odd, given that Trump is minus 10 nationally, while Harris is +0.8 points nationally.
• VP nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance are at 38%-35% (+3) and 40%-40% (neutral), respectively. That seems a bit odd, given that Vance is viewed strongly UNfavorably in the nation as a whole (MINUS 10 points), while Walz is +4 points nationally. Not sure why Vance would be neutral in VA02 but MINUS 10 nationally…so maybe this is a Republican-skewed survey to an extent?
• It’s important to note that many people – including the Wason Center on the briefing call this morning – keep referring to VA02 as a “moderate” district, when in fact it’s a PURPLE district – and those are NOT the same things AT ALL (“moderate” is mostly a meaningless word in a political context, but the main point about VA02 is that it’s narrowly divided between Republicans and Democrats). As for Jen Kiggans, it’s just blatantly absurd/false to refer to her as “moderate,” so a major goal for Smasal should be to let VA02 voters know how right wing she actually is, including endorsing Trump, being tight with right-wingnut Elise Stefanik, saying nice things about extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene, celebrating the demise of Roe, etc, etc.
• Having said all that, obviously Smasal has to crank it up BIG TIME in the next few weeks, including performing a lot better with independents than she currently is (Kiggans +20 among independents), as well as both defining herself and – most importantly – defining KIGGANS as the ineffective, unprincipled, definitely-NOT-“moderate” politician that she actually is.