Maybe it’s too early for polling to be telling us much, but regardless, fish are gonna swim, birds are gonna fly, and pollsters are gonna poll! 
So, for the record, here’s *another* new poll on the Virginia governor’s race, courtesy of VCU.
- “Abigail Spanberger (44%) leads Republican candidate and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (34%), with 17% of those polled still undecided. This is outside the poll’s margin of error (+/- 4.75 percentage points).”
- “Among Republicans, 75% support Earle-Sears, and among Democrats, 85% support Spanberger. Regarding independent voters, Earle-Sears is preferred (21%) over Spanberger (15%).”
- “Respondents were asked whom they would support if the [2026 U.S.] Senate race were held today, and 45% said they would support current [Sen. Mark] Warner, while 38% would support [Glenn] Youngkin.”
- “A vast majority of Democrats (88%) stated they would vote for Warner, and most Republicans (82%) said they would support Youngkin. Independents again were more supportive of the Republican candidate, favoring Youngkin (37%) over Warner (16%).”
- ” Just over half (51%) of Virginians approve of [Glenn Youngkin’s] performance, and 38% disapprove, reflecting similar approval ratings in the Wilder School’s summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. Youngkin’s approval ratings for this most recent poll were heavily partisan, with just 23% of Democrats approving of Youngkin’s handling of his role while 83% of Republicans and 57% of independents approve.”
- “Almost 6 in 10 voters (59%) said the economy and cost of living were together the No. 1 issue, an increase of 20 percentage points from the Wilder School’s fall 2024 Commonwealth Poll. The economy and cost of living were rated similarly among Republicans, Democrats and independents, at 62%, 55% and 59% respectively. The second-ranked issue cited as the most pressing by respondents was K-12 education, with 14% listing it as their top issue. The remaining items in order of importance were crime/public safety (9%), immigration (7%), and higher education (2%).”
For comparison purposes, other recent polling has found the following:
- A recent Wason Center at CNU poll (1/16/25) had Spanberger up 5 points over Sears
- A recent Mason-Dixon poll (1/10/25) had Spanberger up 3 points (47%-44%) over Sears
- A recent Emerson College poll (1/9/25) had Spanberger up by just 1 point, 42%-41%, over Sears.
Average them all together, and you get Spanberger with about a 5 point lead over Sears. But again, it’s VERY early, and in the end, this will come down heavily to what things look like – including Trump’s approval rating! – come fall…
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