Maybe it’s too early for polling to be telling us much, but regardless, fish are gonna swim, birds are gonna fly, and pollsters are gonna poll! 😉 So, for the record, here’s *another* new poll on the Virginia governor’s race, courtesy of VCU.
- “Abigail Spanberger (44%) leads Republican candidate and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (34%), with 17% of those polled still undecided. This is outside the poll’s margin of error (+/- 4.75 percentage points).”
- “Among Republicans, 75% support Earle-Sears, and among Democrats, 85% support Spanberger. Regarding independent voters, Earle-Sears is preferred (21%) over Spanberger (15%).”
- “Respondents were asked whom they would support if the [2026 U.S.] Senate race were held today, and 45% said they would support current [Sen. Mark] Warner, while 38% would support [Glenn] Youngkin.”
- “A vast majority of Democrats (88%) stated they would vote for Warner, and most Republicans (82%) said they would support Youngkin. Independents again were more supportive of the Republican candidate, favoring Youngkin (37%) over Warner (16%).”
- ” Just over half (51%) of Virginians approve of [Glenn Youngkin’s] performance, and 38% disapprove, reflecting similar approval ratings in the Wilder School’s summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. Youngkin’s approval ratings for this most recent poll were heavily partisan, with just 23% of Democrats approving of Youngkin’s handling of his role while 83% of Republicans and 57% of independents approve.”
- “Almost 6 in 10 voters (59%) said the economy and cost of living were together the No. 1 issue, an increase of 20 percentage points from the Wilder School’s fall 2024 Commonwealth Poll. The economy and cost of living were rated similarly among Republicans, Democrats and independents, at 62%, 55% and 59% respectively. The second-ranked issue cited as the most pressing by respondents was K-12 education, with 14% listing it as their top issue. The remaining items in order of importance were crime/public safety (9%), immigration (7%), and higher education (2%).”
For comparison purposes, other recent polling has found the following:
- A recent Wason Center at CNU poll (1/16/25) had Spanberger up 5 points over Sears
- A recent Mason-Dixon poll (1/10/25) had Spanberger up 3 points (47%-44%) over Sears
- A recent Emerson College poll (1/9/25) had Spanberger up by just 1 point, 42%-41%, over Sears.
Average them all together, and you get Spanberger with about a 5 point lead over Sears. But again, it’s VERY early, and in the end, this will come down heavily to what things look like – including Trump’s approval rating! – come fall…
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