We’re all still (anxiously!) awaiting a ruling by the Virginia Supreme Court (which just heard oral arguments on Monday) on whether the YES victory in the redistricting referendum on 4/21 can be certified, and whether the new district lines approved by voters can move forward. If the new district lines DO move foreward, here’s who the candidates might be in each new district. As you can see, it will be VERY different in several cases than the current situation, with a good amount of uncertainty as well, particularly with regard to Republican incumbents like Rep. Rob Wittman in VA01, Rep. John McGuire in VA05 and Rep. Ben Cline in VA06. So we need to keep all that in mind when looking at any polls that come out on the existing districts and current incumbents, challengers, etc.
For instance, a new poll is now out (by a Republican polling outfit – so assume a few points of bias towards the Republican side?) on the *existing* VA01, assuming that Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01) will be taking on Democrat Shannon Taylor, even though Taylor has repeatedly stated her intention to run in the new VA05 if new district lines kick in, while Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) has stated his intention to run in the new VA01. As for Rep. Wittman, we currently don’t know what he’ll do if new district lines kick in – run in VA01? run in VA08? retire/not run for reelection at all (maybe he’d run for governor of Virginia in 2029)?
So with all those doubts and caveats, here are highlights from the new (existing) VA01 poll by Republican pollster Ragnar:
- The current VA01 polls at 44% Republican and 42% Democratic – very close.
- Rep. Wittman’s at 35% favorable vs. 22% unfavorable, with 23% never having heard of him (amazing, huh?) and another 20% having “no opinion” (seriously???).
- Basically almost nobody knows who Shannon Taylor is, with just 16% expressing an opinion (9% favorable vs. 7% unfavorable), with 66% saying they never heard of her, and with another 18% expressing “no opinion.”
- Donald Trump is “underwater” in the current VA01, with just 42% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable. That’s not good for Wittman, obviously, given that Wittman has voted nearly 100% of the time with Trump.
- Top issues in VA01 are the economy (39%), immigration/border security (11%), health care/social services/veteran care/elder care 7%, etc.
- In a head-to-head matchup between Wittman and Taylor (which is only possible if the new district lines do NOT kick in), Wittman leads Taylor by 4 points (46%-42%). Again, keep in mind that voters basically have no idea who Taylor is, and also that if the new district lines kick in, Taylor will be running in VA05, not VA01…and who knows what Wittman will do. But in general, this poll indicates that Wittman would face a potentially VERY competitive race – one which he certainly could lose – even if new district lines do NOT kick in.
Anything else jump out at you from this poll?
