Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Democrats Pass a Budget Deal…After Months of Internal Disagreements and Discord

Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from Democrats passing a budget deal (including Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s 14 budget amendments yesterday), after months of disagreement and sometimes bitter discord.  As always, this list isn’t even close to comprehensive – nor is it intended to be (in part because it could go on for days…and at some point, enough is enough, lol!) – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section. By the way, it’s important to point out that you can be a “winner” even if you’re a right-wing Republican (e.g., McDonnell and Cuccinelli in 2009 were huge “winners,” even though they completely suck!) or whatever, and that you can be a “loser” even if you’re my favorite Democrat in the world, because in this context “winner” and “loser” is all about whether someone “won” or “lost” politically in this election cycle, not whether that makes me happy or not or whether it’s normatively a “good” or “bad” thing, per se.  With that…on to the “Winners”/”Mixed”/”Losers” from the Virginia Democrats passing a budget deal, including Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s amendments, right before the June 30 deadline at which point the government could have shut down.

Winners

1. Sen. Louise Lucas: I was thinking about putting Sen. Lucas in the “Mixed” category, because of course she didn’t get her #1 goal with regard to data centers, which was to ditch the retail sales-and-use-tax exemption completely. But in the end, I think Lucas is in the “Winners” category for a few reasons. First off, as the powerful chair of the Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee, she pledged to get a budget deal by June 30 – and she delivered on that, even if it was a rocky road to get there. Second, despite not getting everything she wanted on data centers, she got a lot, including $1.2 billion in new revenues from data centers flowing from a new power consumption tax, as well as a requirement that data centers use best-available water efficiency technologies. Third, Sen. Lucas raised the profile of this issue, bringing real political pressure to bear to tackle it, for the first time ever in Virginia. Fourth, my understanding is that Sen. Lucas played a huge role in getting the cannabis marketplace legislation over the finish line, apparently making it clear that there would be no final budget deal without an agreement on that front. Finally, there was a ton of excellent stuff in this budget, in just about every area –  nearly $2 billion in new education funding, “4% raises for teachers and school support staff and 3.5% raises for state employees in each year of the biennium,” “nearly $1 billion to protect Virginians from federal funding cuts and economic uncertainty,” etc, etc. So for all those reasons, Sen. Lucas is in the “Winners” category.
2. Speaker Don Scott: As with Sen. Lucas, I thought about putting Speaker Scott in the “mixed” category, because he didn’t get everything he wanted on data centers (e.g., an extension of the sales tax exemption). On the other hand, as with Sen. Lucas, in the end he got the main job done, which was getting a budget deal by June 30, also resolving the data centers issue to enough of an extent that “peace in the valley” among Democrats was (sort of) achieved. And there was plenty of other great stuff in this budget, aside from data centers, of course – see Sen. Lucas’ entry, above, for just a few of them. So overall, Speaker Scott did his job, held his caucus together, got an excellent budget over the finish line, and avoided disaster – not a small thing – politically speaking. That takes skill!
3. Del. Luke Torian: As Chair of the House Appropriations Committee, Del. Torian was at the center of negotiations on the budget, so he deserves a great deal of credit for getting an excellent final product over the finish line. Also, he may have defused the data centers issue, at least somewhat, for himself, as at one point Sen. Lucas had even hinted at potential primaries of those who were defending tax breaks for data centers (“‘I have tried to say to Chairman Torian and others who are taking a position against the citizens and the data center people, there’s a price to pay,’ Lucas said. ‘They’re going to be some people who are going to get primaried; they don’t believe it yet, but FAFO.'”). So…Del. Torian definitely appears to be a political “winner” at the moment, at least, for having (apparently) defused this issue, at least to an extent.
4. State Sen. Lachreecse Aird/Del. Paul Krizek/Cannabis Marketplace: On June 16, alongside Gov. Spanberger, the Senate and House patrons of cannabis marketplace legislation – Senator Lashrecse Aird and Del. Paul Krizek – announced that they had reached a deal  – after “working together it seems like for decades on this” – on “a safe, legal, and well-regulated adult-use retail cannabis market through the budget process.” Everyone involved in this effort certainly deserves credit, but I just wanted to recognize Sen. Aird and Del. Krizek, since they were leaders on this (along with Sen. Lucas, as noted above), and in the end their hard work and dedication got the job done. Thanks!
5. Sen. Russet Perry (D-Loudoun/Fauquier) and Del. John McAuliff (D-Loudoun/Fauquier): Both are big winners for their districts in getting the Oak Hill State Park project done. To the extent that “all politics are local,” that’s a big deal for Loudoun County, and will give both Perry and McAuliff something big (and local) to tout when they’re running for reelection next year (and note that Trump won McAuliff’s district by 0.8 points, while Spanberger won it by 5 points, so it can go either way).
6. VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell: Similar to Speaker Don Scott, while the process wasn’t pretty, Surovell kept his caucus together, avoided disaster (not a small matter!), and actually ended up with a budget that Democrats can be proud of. So that definitely makes him a winner on this one.
7. Wealthy Virginians: They “won” by avoiding any increase in their tax rates, even though polling shows that “an overwhelming majority of Americans support raising taxes on the wealthy and big corporations across partisanship” (Americans support this by an incredible 79%-16% margin). This one drives me crazy, because it’s a classic case where it’s both good policy AND good politics to do it, yet somehow it doesn’t seem to get done. Also, let’s face it, whether Democrats raise taxes or not – and so far since Gov. Spanberger took office, they haven’t done so, other than the new power consumption tax on data centers (which presumably has overwhelming support by the public) – Republicans are going to rant and rave that Democrats raised a gazillion taxes, blah blah blah. So seriously, why not just raise taxes on the wealthy, bring in billions of dollars in revenues to use for education, healthcare, etc., and also do something that Americans support by a 79%-16% margin. What am I missing here??? Anyway, it didn’t happen, for whatever reasons, and wealthy Virginians are the winners…while the rest of us are the losers, pretty much.
8. NextEra’s intended acquisition of Dominion Energy: The statement yesterday by Clean Virginia nailed it – failing to tackle the review process for NextEra’s intended acquisition of Dominion Energy “leaves Virginians exposed,” as the review process is FAR too short for a deal of this massive size, complexity, and consequences for millions of Virginians. But unfortunately, as Clean Virginia said, “Virginians needed decisive leadership from this budget review, and instead Governor Spanberger sidestepped” it on this issue. So for now, at least – and this can/should change! – NextEra is a winner, specifically with regard to its intended acquisition of Dominion Energy. The rest of us? Not so much.
9. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI): Virginia’s headed back into RGGI, after Gov. Glenn Youngkin pulled Virginia out (in a legally dubious manner), and that’s great news no matter how you look at it, as RGGI helps Virginia “meet its climate goals, while also improving air quality and public health.” Also note that “RGGI was working for Virginians for three years, steadily and cost-effectively reducing pollution from power plants,” and that “thanks to RGGI, families and communities benefited from lower air pollution and a steady revenue source for the Community Flood Preparedness Fund and Low-Income Energy Efficiency programs.” Oh, and 100s of millions of $$$ in revenues from RGGI will “be split between flood mitigation projects and energy efficiency for low-income residents.”  So Gov. Youngkin pulling Virginia out of RGGI was both stupid and illegal, while Gov. Spanberger and the Democratic-controlled General Assembly leading us back IN to RGGI is the right thing to do in every way.

Mixed

1. Gov. Abigail Spanberger: In the end, Gov. Spanberger got a budget deal that she can live with, but not without a LOT of misunderstandings, bad blood among Democrats (including the powerful Sen. Louise Lucas), labor unions, the Democratic “base” in various ways, etc. On the positive side, Spanberger did manage to demonstrate that she was a powerful player, and she ultimately will be able to tout the budget deal that was reeach. But on the less-positive side, we’ll see if some proverbial “bridges” were burned (e.g., permanent damage done?), or maybe can be repaired (the damage was just temporary?), or what, going forward. And we’ll see how Spanberger’s polling looks in coming months, as well as her “buzz” for 2028 or other future political opportunities after she completes her governorship. Anyway, mixed bag in the first six months of Spanberger’s single, four-year term in office…
2. Virginia ‘s business rankings and bond ratings: We’ll see how Virginia does when the next “Best States for Business” rankings come out, although to the extent that Virginia falls (IF we fall!) in those rankings (which presumably will come out in the next few weeks), it probably won’t be the result of the contentious and lengthy budget negotiations, but almost certainly more related to other factors, like damage to Virginia’s economy due to DOGE cuts, maybe some other provisions that the business community doesn’t like, etc. Anyway, this one remains to be seen…so for now, we’ll put it in the “Mixed”/uncertain category.
3. Data Centers: As discussed above, data centers maintained their retail sales-and-use-tax exemption, which was a “win” for them. On the other hand, they are now on the hook for $1.2 billion in new taxes over the biennium, plus some more efforts on best-available water efficiency technologies, plus the potential for a lot more regulations and restrictions down the road, given the public anger and focus on this issue, something that wasn’t really there previously, certainly not like it is now. So data centers almost end up in the “Losers” category, but in keeping their sales-and-use-tax exemption, they get bumped into “Mixed” – for now.

Losers

1. Cheseapeake Bay, Menhaden: If you care about the environmental sustainability and health of the Cheseapeake Bay, including the crucial species menhaden – which the Chesapeake Bay Foundation correctly notes is “foundational to a healthy Chesapeake Bay,” but also that “the same qualities that make menhaden a prized food for marine wildlife, have also long made them a target for the reduction industry—or a type of fishing that involves catching and processing millions of wild menhaden and grinding them down into fishmeal and fish oil for use in other industries. As a result of their environmental and economic importance, management of the menhaden fishery is a political flashpoint across the region.” So for now, we get a study “to inform a scientifically defensible and ecologically meaningful Chesapeake Bay harvest cap,” but no actual “harvest cap” for now…or for years to come? (note that the fishing industry put out a press release expressing great pleasure over this amendment, which seems…well, “fishy!”; apparently they are assuming they can “game” this study, also delay action indefinitely). Anyway, we’ll see, but for now, unfortunately the Chesapeake Bay, menhaden, and the entire ecosystem that depends on menhaden appear to be losers.
2. Virginia Democratic unity: In the end, Virginia Democrats may or may not have achieved so-called “peace in the valley” amongst themselves, but it’s hard to believe that the past few months of bitter internal battles, public fights, etc. won’t leave some serious marks.  Of course, it’s not in Virginia Democrats’ self-interest, politically, to stay at each others’ throats, especially given that next year, the entire General Assembly is up for election, so hopefully they can work their sh** out. But for now, as far as I can tell, the past few months were damaging, the only question being to what degree (and whether the damage can be mended).
3. Gun violence prevention: This isn’t due to the budget deal per se, but in general, gun violence prevention efforts have been going through a really rough stretch, with state and federal courts striking down and/or issuing injunctions against enforcement of laws on “assault weapons,” high-capacity magazines, etc. One of Gov. Spanberger’s budget amendments delays enactment of legislation on possession of firearms in public areas until July 1, 2027; we’ll see if that ever comes into effect, but the way things have been going, I wouldn’t hold your breath.