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We’re into our final week of early voting for the Democratic and Republican primaries set for August 4 here in Virginia, and we’re getting a good idea of enthusiasm – or lack thereof – on each side. See VPAP for all the details, and below for some graphics and highlights, including:
- Overall, Democrats are WAY ahead of Republicans in early voting (67,967- 39,983), despite the fact that Republicans have a statewide primary (for U.S. Senate), while Democrats do NOT have any statewide primaries on the ballot this cycle. That’s really, really striking, and as far as I can tell, indicates that Virginia Republicans are not particularly excited or enthused to vote this year, which corresponds to evidence we’re seeing around the country (see Republican enthusiasm gap adding to midterm election challenges in November and Republicans see ‘scary’ lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms, for instance).
- Comparing turnout for the Virginia GOP’s U.S. Senate primary this year vs. the 2018 midterms, when Trump was also (unfortunately) in the White House, we see a MASSIVE decline in turnout, with just 39,983 early votes cast by Republicans this year (with 8 days until the primary), compared to 304,439 total votes cast in their 2018 U.S. Senate primary (down 87% if you compare the current GOP turnout with FINAL GOP turnout in 2018). Of course, this year, can you even name the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate (other than this lunatic, perhaps)? Whereas in 2018, there were three relatively big names (Corey Stewart, Nick Freitas, EW Jackson) running for the Republican nomination to take on Sen. Tim Kaine. Of course, in 2018, Republicans delusionally thought they had a chance to win the US Senate race in November, while this time around, I doubt almost anyone thinks that Sen. Mark Warner isn’t going to win by like 15-20 points in November – hence the (rational?) lack of enthusiasm by Republicans?
- Comparing this year’s Democratic turnout in U.S. House primaries to 2018 final turnout, we definitely see a decline (by about half (at this point) compared to 2018 FINAL turnout), but not like what we’re seeing on the Republican side by any means! For instance, in 2018, the VA01 Democratic primary saw 27,538 final votes cast, whereas right now we’re at just 14,505 early votes cast (with this week of early voting, plus primary day on 8/4 still to come); the VA02 Democratic primary in 2018 saw 28,162 votes cast, compared to just 13,594 early votes cast so far; and the VA09 Democratic primary in 2018 saw 13,677 votes cast (final/total), compared to just 6,620 early votes cast so far.
- Of course, it’s still possible that there will be a surge in Democratic voting this week and next Tuesday, and maybe in the end we’ll come close to 2018 turnout levels in VA01, VA02, and VA09. But if not, I’d say the main reasons are that the primaries are generally not viewed (by political analysts, prediction markets, etc.) as particularly competitive – in VA01 and VA02, Shannon Taylor and Elaine Luria are the overwhelming favorites; in VA09, Joy Powers is the favorite, but more to the point, VA09 isn’t viewed as even remotely competitive in the fall, as it’s one of the deepest-red, most-MAGA/Trumpy districts in the entire country, sad to say…
So what else jumps out at you from these numbers? Have you voted yet? If not, are you waiting for August 4 or do you plan to vote early (in-person or by mail)?
P.S. VA01 Dem primary turnout was about 28k in 2018, 41k in 2020, and 23k in 2024.
