I feel like I’ve been having a similar discussion, over and over again, the past few months, about the Virginia 2015 elections, and specifically what it will take for Democrats to make gains in a low, low, LOW-turnout year. For instance, the other day I was “Gchatting” with one of the smartest Virginia Democratic political observers (SVDPO) I know, and we were discussing this very subject. Here’s a rough transcript of the conversation, which started off with us ripping Dick Saslaw for being (as my smart Dem political friend put it), “both an embarrassment and very ineffective.”

Me: Saslaw’s utterly ineffective as a strategist and tactician…wasted $1 million trying to hold Phil Puckett’s seat in a 2:1 Republican district. Poor judgment after poor judgment.

SVDPO: Yes, he is completely ineffective at strategy at this point. That’s because he’s still living in the past, when there was a “Virginia Way” and Democrats were powerful so Republicans were their friends. Once they took power, theyve been kicking Dems like him who used to be their allies to the curb. It’s a whole new ball game in Richmond and he hasn’t a clue.

Me: Like, they think (conservadem/Independent who wanted to impeach/convict Bill Clinton and mused publicly about not voting to reelect President Obama in 2012) Dan Gecker is the best choice for the John Watkins open seat. That’s nuts. Also, they think that they need a white guy to run against Hal Parrish. They tried recruiting two other white guys (David Brickley, who joined the Gilmore administration and effectively threw the House of Delegates to Republican control in 1998, being one of them), finally got Jeremy McPike (apparently anyone but the black guy or brown guy). Just like they said Jaime Areizaga-Soto couldn’t win a deep-blue Senate district, which of course was utterly absurd…Jeremy will get trounced by Parrish if he’s the nominee. Gecker will lose to Sturtevant. Their “theory of the case” is totally wrong. This is a low-turnout election in which it’s all about motivating/firing up the BASE to turn out. Gecker won’t do that, nor will McPike. If those two are the nominees, I think it’s quite possible we end this election with 16 or 17 Senate seats. John Edwards is in trouble, as is the Colgan seat potentially. We’ll see about Lynwood Lewis, hopefully he’s ok. Let’s also hope Jill McCabe runs a strong campaign against Dick Black.

SVDPO: Hopefully, McCabe will run a strong enough campaign. As for the rest, you are right.

Me: So under Dick’s leadership, we’ve lost the Senate, thrown the House Dems under the bus (because that was supposed to guarantee the Senate, which we lost anyway), and got the worst of all worlds.

SVDPO: You basically summed up our troubles in Virginia. Dick Saslaw losing the legislature for us by his poor choices and inability to recognize that times have changed. I particularly cannot forgive his failure to see the fiasco with Puckett coming. And then actually making public statements that Puckett and Terry Kilgore did nothing wrong. How clueless was all that?

Again, this is an extremely low-turnout, “base” election year, in which the challenge for both Republicans and (to an even greater extent!) Democrats will be to motivate, enthuse, and ultimately turn out their “bases.” The way to do that for the “blue team” is most certainly not to run candidates who can barely bring themselves to keep the “D” label by their names, who run away from President Obama, etc. (kinda like in 2009 with Creigh Deeds and in 2014 with Mark Warner). To the contrary, Democrats need…wait for it…strong, proud, forceful Democrats, who will fire up Democrats to work hard this summer and fall to take back the Virginia State Senate. That’s my “theory of the case,” one that is diametrically opposite to Dick Saslaw’s, apparently. What’s yours?

P.S. It’s also factually incorrect and politically wayyyy off message for Gov. McAuliffe to talk about how supposedly great he’s working with Senate Republicans. If that’s the case, then why exactly do Democrats need to turn out in droves this November? The correct message, both factually and politically, should instead be: “You guys need to work hard to send me a Democratic Senate this November so I can get great stuff done for Virginia, because with far-right-wing, extreme Republicans controlling both chambers of the General Assembly, that’s going to be almost impossible.”

No, I’m still not a fan of Lee Hockstader’s, but he certainly got this one right!

State Senate District 29: Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park. The Democratic incumbent, Charles J. Colgan, who has held the seat since 1976, is the longest serving state senator in Virginia’s history. His retirement after 10 terms touched off a primary race featuring three plausible candidates, each of whom ran for the House of Delegates two years ago.

The strongest of them is Atif M.Qarni, who served eight years in the U.S. Marines, including a tour in Iraq, before becoming a school teacher in Prince William County.

Mr. Qarni, widely admired for his energy, determination and commitment to service, would be the only active teacher in the Senate. He’d also be an effective advocate for schools who could speak to the real-world impact of legislation and policy from the perspective of someone working in one of the most diverse school districts anywhere.

Nailed it; this shouldn’t even be a close call.

Also of interest, the Post endorsed Paul Krizek in the 44th House of Delegates district, correctly calling him “abundantly qualified to serve in Richmond, having been heavily involved in local civic groups for more than two decades.” Also nailed it.

Finally, Craig Fifer continues his endorsement momentum, picking up the Washington Post, which says his “background, combining policy savvy and on-the-ground experience, is excellent preparation for a legislator.”

Now, we’ll see how the candidates take advantage of the “Washington Post endorsed” label, and how much clout said endorsement carries.

In light of the news that Josh Duggar – member of the Duggars’ dangerous cult of purity (not to mention the bizarre, warped “Quiverfull” movement) – “repeatedly molested young girls when he was 14,” I’ve seen numerous blog posts and news stories connecting Josh Duggar to various Republican politicans (e.g., see What do Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum and Jeb Bush Have In Common? Josh Duggar). However, I haven’t seen any noting that the Duggars – including Josh Duggar – actively campaigned for the 2013 Virginia Republican “extreme team” ticket of Ken Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson, and Mark “Criminalize Miscarriages” Obesnhain. Here’s Josh Duggar speaking at a rally for the Extreme Team in October 2013: “FRC Action, our goal is to encourage faith, family and freedom, and these men – Ken Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson, and Mark Obenshain – really are exemplary of our values.” Any further questions about the Republican Party of Virginia? (note: that same party is now headed by a guy who likes to make anti-Semitic “jokes”; also includes extremists like “Sidehow Bob” Marshall, Dick Black, Steve Martin and many others)

P.S. This remains relevant because all three members of the “Extreme Team” are active public figures and potential future candidates for office (e.g., it is certainly possible that Mark Obenshain will run for Virginia Attorney General in 2017).