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Virginia News Headlines: Sunday Morning

By
lowkell
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3

Here are a few Virginia and national news headlines, political and otherwise, for Sunday, October 20. Also, check out the great photo by Jack Powers of our Virginia Democratic ticket and Hillary Clinton from yesterday’s rally in Falls Church. Lots more photos, video, etc. here as well.

*Cruz Warns Senate GOP: ‘Consequences’ for Supporting ‘Lousy Deal’ (Ken Cuccinelli says we need a lot more of this McCarthyist thug and sociopath in Congress? WTF?)

*Hillary Clinton hits campaign trail, endorses McAuliffe in Virginia

*AP Sources: 476,000 Obamacare Applications Filed  

*Ken Cuccinelli: Obamacare debut a “national embarrassment” (Actually, Obamacare is great, it’s Ken Cuccinelli who is a “national embarrassment.”)

*Trailing, Ken Cuccinelli seeks to fire up base (By appearing with extremists like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, the Duggars, Mark Levin, etc, etc. It’s truly appalling that THESE are the horrible people the Teapublican “base” gets “fired up” about. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.)

*Star CEO says he told McDonnell of loan to first lady (“Spokesman: McDonnell not aware of the $50,000 until after it was spent.” Somebody’s lying.)

*Schapiro: Va. politicians clearly prefer the opaque

*Hillary Clinton brings her star power to Virginia for Terry McAuliffe (Great rally; the contrast with Ken Cuccinelli and extremist bigot Mike Huckabee couldn’t be more profound.)

*Huckabee tries to fire up base for Cuccinelli (Yes, the same guy who said “homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle,” that Roe v Wade had created a “holocaust” of abortion in America, that the Newtown shooting happened because “we systematically removed God from our schools,” and that Muslims are like “uncorked animals.” As an added “bonus,” Huckabee doesn’t believe in EITHER evolution OR climate science. Total. Freaking. Wacko. And of course he’s for Ken Kookinelli.)

*Virginia governor’s race attracting engaged college voters

*Gubernatorial candidate Cuccinelli vows to fight for coal (As we face dangerous, disastrous global warming, Cuccinelli vows to fight for one of the chief causes of this crisis. Brilliant!)

*The election forgetting, by the election forgot (The Republican Richmond Times-Dispatch, which reliably endorses Republicans, can’t bring itself to endorse Cuccinelli, whose behavior has “mocked [his] advertised fealty to first principles,” whose “hostility to marriage equality offends,” who takes “stands we find objectionable” and “pursues his divisive agenda with a stridency that was unbecoming in an attorney general and would be unbecoming in a governor.” OUCH, the truth hurts, especially when it’s coming from a strongly Republican paper.)

Editorial: Vote for Northam(The Republican Times-Dispatch endorses Democrat Ralph Northam for LG, noting that he’s running against ” an entertaining (and, at times, frightening) political neophyte whose bombastic statements have alienated even his running mates.”)

*They will cringe as they vote: In key Va. district, little political enthusiasm (Do reporters just write the same exact story before every election or what? Didn’t we hear this before the 2012 election as well? Whatever.)

*Debate sponsor tries to get Sarvis included (My understanding is that Sarvis would be in if not for objections from…you guessed it, Ken Cuccinelli. What is Cooch afraid of exactly?)

*Daily Press: Northam for lieutenant governor (If E.W. Jackson “were elected to a high office representing the entire commonwealth, his rhetoric would create even more division and more controversy. That’s the last thing we need coming out of Richmond.”)

*Next first lady not yet focused on her duties

*Fairfax wrestles with creating housing for both rich and poor residents

*D.C. area forecast: A few fine fall days, but with a chilly front on the way

*CBS stations refuse Oneida Indian ad (Absolutely disgraceful – screw you CBS!)

*Caps back into the win column

The Scalpel vs. the Hatchet: For Lt. Gov., A Contest of Polar Opposites

By
kindler
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2

Ralph Northam As I listened to Democratic Lieutenant Governor candidate Ralph Northam at a fundraiser last night, it occurred to me that the two candidates for that position couldn’t possibly be more different.  It is, in short, a race between an accomplished professional who takes everything he does seriously — and a rabble-rousing demagogue who’s never succeeded in anything other than spreading extremism.  

Dr. Northam’s day job is as a pediatric neurologist.  Think about it: he treats kids with brain injuries and disorders — not a position you can BS your way through or in which you can do a half-assed job and call it a day.  It’s a highly skilled profession on which children’s lives and futures depend.  And he’s been in practice for over 20 years, after serving as a physician in the Army and completing residencies at two Army Medical Centers, including Walter Reed.  

He’s been in the State Senate since 2007, where his signature accomplishment was the law banning smoking in restaurants, protecting the health of their workers and patrons.  Now think about that — he got a solid smoking ban in a state where tobacco has been king since the colonial era.  

Northam, is in short, a serious professional, someone who focuses on resolving important challenges — which, it’s worth reminding everyone in this age of Tea Party craziness, is exactly and only what we want our government officials doing.

And then we have the Reverend E.W. Jackson, the extent of whose seriousness on matters of governance may be summed up by the video from his failed Senate campaign where he smashes watermelons labeled “Federal Budget”, “Unemployment” and “Obamacare” with an axe.  

This is a race then between the man wielding a scalpel and the one throwing around a hatchet.  Where Northam’s life is one of accomplishment, it’s hard to find anything productive or good that Jackson has achieved.  His past includes failure to pay taxes and a declaration of bankruptcy.  Even his stories of coming up from childhood deprivation have turned out to be fairy tales.

And unlike Northam, Jackson has managed to BS his way through at least part of his life. The Post story above quotes a former aide to Jackson in his previous campaigns as saying “The problem was, he just wasn’t 100 percent committed to all the intricate details to actually get to that next step – to actually being in public office.”

The difference in these two men’s approaches was not lost on the Washington Post when it outlined its endorsement of Northam:

Where Mr. Northam…is measured and moderate…Mr. Jackson is drunk with his own words, incapable of resisting bombast and demagoguery. While Mr. Northam, a pediatric neurologist, speaks movingly of the children he has treated, Mr. Jackson blathers about his “love for all people” – even as he goes about savaging Democrats (agents of Satan), homosexuals (“very sick people”) and religious minorities (followers of “false” religions).

Which one would you trust your kid’s brain with?  Now, how about your entire state?

Photos, Video: Packed House Cheers Terry McAuliffe, Hillary Clinton

By
lowkell
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22

I just got back from the “Women for Terry McAuliffe” event this afternoon at the historic State Theater in Falls Church, Virginia. I’ll be posting more photos and videos as I process them (note, the photo to the right is by Del. Scott Surovell), but let’s just say for now that it was a great event before a packed house, with people fired up for the Democratic ticket and of course for former Senator and Secretary of State (and possibly future president, speaking of “historic”!) Hillary Clinton. The former First Lady, U.S. Senator and Secretary of State made her first political appearance in several years, on behalf of her good friend Terry McAuliffe, who she showered with praise as a father, as one of the most big-hearted and hard-working people she knows, and as someone who will work 24/7 for the people of Virginia as their governor.

A major theme of the speeches this afternoon was protecting women’s rights, which would come under serious attack if (god forbid) Ken Cuccinelli and his “extreme team” ticket were ever elected. As Terry McAuliffe put it, he will stand as a “brick wall” between any extreme legislation coming out of the Virginia General Assembly when it comes to women’s health and reproductive freedom. He pledged to make Virginia an opening and welcoming place for everyone, one which again is in stark contrast to Cuccinelli and his Tea Party ticketmates.

Also speaking of “historic,” Virginia Democrats are on the verge of making history in just over 2 weeks, with the possibility of sweeping all three statewide offices. Let’s do it!

P.S. See the comments section of this post for more photos and video.

Ted Cruz as Mad Hatter (But Cruz Isn’t Mad, He’s a Sociopath)

By
Andy Schmookler
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1

( – promoted by lowkell)

Sociopaths make the Kool-Aid. The Crazies are the ones who drink it.

Sociopathy and craziness have this in common: they are both forms of human “brokenness.”

Sociopaths are broken in their not being connected with the rest of humanity by bonds of empathy. They serve only themselves, using and exploiting others, caring nothing about the consequences for others or the greater good. This captures well what Ted Cruz has been doing, and before him, on the right, the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich, and Karl Rove.

The Crazies, such as we see on the right, are broken in the fundamental disconnect between what they believe about the world they’re living in and the realities of that world. Sociopaths can manipulate them into obsessing about non-existent threats, and into ignoring the genuine threats to their well-being, their liberties, and the prospects for their children.

Both sociopathy and craziness create channels for the advancement in the world of a force that could appropriately be called “Evil.” Evil can be understood as a pattern of brokenness that works to spread itself, and that imparts its brokenness –does damage– to everything that it touches.

This “Evil” not only creates brokenness, but it also exploits brokenness as it works to increase its power in the human world.

There are always some sociopaths in a population, but Evil succeeds by enabling sociopaths to rise to positions of power in a socio-cultural system. That a voice like Limbaugh’s wields such power in America, that a politician like Ted Cruz can be mentioned as a presidential contender, is a sign of how far the force of brokenness has advanced in our times.

There is always a degree of craziness in a population. While the detachment from reality may arise out of faulty genetics, the politically more important source is giving people an experience of growing up — in the family, in the culture — that entails the brokenness of trauma, and the brokenness of internalizing cultural demands that constitute a declaration of war on human nature.

These kinds of fracturing — experiences difficult to integrate — create avenues for Evil to exploit for the purposes of extending its domain.

This destructive force — which operates in a manner like what our culture has called, for millennia, a force of Evil — can use the brokenness already embedded in a culture to channel the rage and fear and hatred of wounded souls to serve its purposes in the realm of power. But it can also work to cultivate a kind of politically craziness in the minds of mostly sane people.

That’s where the Kool-Aid comes in. Most people are largely ignorant of the large world of macro-politics. So if this force can elevate sociopaths into positions of power, if it can isolate a population from other influences, it can then over the course of years cultivate and exploit the brokenness of craziness we now see rampant on the political right.

Ted Cruz is the latest of these power-lusting sociopaths to rise to prominence to do the work of spreading brokenness.  Not “mad” himself, Cruz has no qualms about fostering madness in others to further his own lust for power, and also to satisfy his apparent appetite for manipulating and exploiting others.

Keeping the likes of Ted Cruz — and his Virginia counterparts — from making “crazy.. the new normal,” is an imperative for all Americans –and Virginians– who don’t want Evil to be ruling our world.

Video: Gaby Kloiber Talks About Ken Cuccinelli’s Voter Purge

By
lowkell
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12

Republicans like Ken Cuccinelli are, to be blunt about it, more interested in their own elections than about American democracy (of which they appear disdainful, disrespectful, and determined to manipulate to their own partisan advantage). On November 5, PLEASE make sure you show up at the polls – and remind 10, 20, 100 of your friends and neighbors to do so as well – so we can defeat this outrageous, ongoing Republican voter suppression effort, taking place across America, including right here in Virginia. And yes, your vote really DOES matter; a great deal, actually, no matter what anyone tells you to the contrary. Thanks.

Virginia News Headlines: Saturday Morning

By
lowkell
-
2

Here are a few Virginia and national news headlines, political and otherwise, for Saturday, October 19. Also see President Obama’s weekly address, in which he says “it’s time to put aside politics and work on behalf of the American people and the country we love.”

*GOP isn’t learning from its mistakes (By Republican Joe Scarborough)

*GOP continues its voter suppression (And in Virginia with its photo ID and voter purges. What is it about Democracy that Republicans dislike so much? Oh yeah, because the more people vote, the more they lose!)

*How Republicans can neutralize the tea party (“…tea party incumbents are much more vulnerable than is commonly recognized – but only to challengers who are able to expand the size of the turnout in GOP primaries.”)

*The GOP’s Cruz problem (“The more he talks, the more Republicans suffer.”)

*[Hillary] Clinton’s 1st 2013 campaign trip aims to rally Va. women

*Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell Go In Different Directions After Storm, Scandal

*AP’s Lewis suspended after McAuliffe flub (So…one of the best Virginia political reporters is suspended for the last 2+ weeks of the governor’s election, and that’s going to benefit who exactly?)

*Women back McAuliffe, but will they vote? (That’s where GOTV comes in. We’ll see how good an operation the McAuliffe campaign has built in just over 2 weeks.)

*Virginia’s Democratic Party loses challenge against purge of 38,000 voters from rolls

*Cuccinelli aims blast at Affordable Care Act in GOP’s weekly address (I don’t know about you, but I find this shocking, just SHOCKING! LOL)

*New GOP ad attacks McAuliffe as big spender (“Cuccinelli says McAuliffe’s promises would cost Virginian families $1,700; Dems say GOP math is made up.” And the media can’t just say that Cooch is full of crap, which he of course is.)

*Planned Parenthood Spends $1 Million on Virginia Gubernatorial Race

*#BuyingAVoice: Billionaire spends big to hammer Cuccinelli

*Let Libertarian into debate, his wife pleads in video

*What are the odds of a Democratic sweep?

*Judge rules to continue gas royalties class-action lawsuits

*Candidates Debate At College

*The problem in District 82 (Yeah, Bill DeSteph is a bigot and a demagogue who’d make a HORRIBLE addition to Virginia’s House of Delegates!)

*Weak front threatens showers today, then nicer before a big cooldown

A Bad Day for Virginia Tea Partier Dave LaRock

By
lowkell
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0

From the Mary Daniels for Delegate campaign: 

Today Dave LaRock decided to pick a fight with the press and is paying a heavy price in two of the biggest papers in the 33rd district.

Purcellville Gazette
http://purcellvillegazette.com/gazette-statement-larock-campaign-claims/

“Mr. LaRock has shown contempt for the basic mechanisms of the democratic process.”

Leesburg Today
http://www.leesburgtoday.com/news/politics/larock-criticized-for-missing-third-debate/article_b3ee4678-382c-11e3-8d00-0019bb2963f4.html

“The Purcellville Gazette released a statement today calling the campaign’s explanation of LaRock’s absence false.”

As the LaRock campaign goes into panic mode dealing with this stupid self-inflected wound, Mary Costello Daniel's values and positive message continue to resonate with voters. The next two weeks will see the results of Mary's late surge in the polls and in fundraising, as mailers and canvassers reinforce the need to elect a moderate, experienced delegate and not a radical ideological crusader.

We can still expand our efforts outside of mail in other media and beef up our paid voter program. Any additional support you can provide in the next 10 days can turn a race that's a dead heat into a convincing victory.

Thank you for supporting Mary; let's finish strong! 

Reading the “Tea” Leaves, Part I: Governor’s Race

By
FreeDem
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4

( – promoted by lowkell)

We’re counting down the days until the Election in Virginia and there’s growing evidence that Democrats are sweeping the top two statewide slots. Republicans are shifting resources to give Obenshain a fighting chance at the Attorney General’s race; the Republican State Leadership Committee has given Obenshain $500,000 in hopes he can salvage the GOP ticket and protect down-ballot Republicans.

In the House of Delegates, Democrats have released three internal polls showing our candidates well positioned to make gains. But there are also signs that the wave on election day may crash upon hostile shores down-ballot. All that, and MORE, to be discussed in this, the first of a multi-party diary analyzing what we know so far about the Virginia election.

First, the good news for Virginia Democrats. Terry McAullife’s position in the latest NBC4/NBC News/Marist poll shows him expanding his lead against Ken Cuccinelli, up 46% to 38%, with Libertarian candidate Sarvis receiving 9% of the vote. That’s up 3 percentage points from the pre-shutdown Marist poll.

It’s only one poll of many, but it can’t be good for the Virginia GOP that both McAullife and Sarvis are gaining in the polls while Cuccinelli is flat. The only “good news” in the last few weeks for Republicans may have been their ability to exclude Sarvis from the debates, limiting his exposure, but he’s still polling in the high single digits.

Without Sarvis, the Marist poll has McAullife up 52% to 43%. That 52% may be a good approximation of McAullife’s ceiling in these closing days of the campaign.

The highest McAullife has polled in a three-way poll is 47%. Even in match ups without Sarvis, McAullife has rarely exceeded 47%, only in the Quinnipiac, Washington Post, and PPP polls. He’s only over 50% in the PPP poll. Those polling groups are the more professional outfits polling, unlike the host of small colleges that are delving into the game, so they are probably going to hit closer to the mark in the end. A final McAullife vote between 52% and 47% will all depend on the final split among undecideds and how much Sarvis collapses these last few days. For Cuccinelli, he’s hovering between 39% and an optimistic high of around 44% if everything breaks his way.

Reasons for Republican “optimism” are more about hoping Cuccinelli doesn’t drag down the party. The undecided voters lean Republican, conservative to moderate, but not Tea Party, they may be a lost cause for Cuccinelli and E. W. Jackson, but if Obenshain can carry them he could still pull off a win and minimize the damage inflicted on Republican Delegates.

In addition to figuring out how undecideds breaks, there’s the question of Sarvis and his “libertarian” supporters. If McAullife is hovering just around the 50% mark, Sarvis’s supporters could make or break Democrats in the other races if they swing one way or another.

Reporters keep drawing comparisons to Russ Potts from 2005, but there’s a big difference in how Sarvis has continued to poll in the high single digits throughout the fall. In 2005, Potts hit a “high water mark” of 6% in a Mason-Dixon poll in mid-September, his highest 9% in a Mason-Dixon poll in August was before the real campaigning had even started. Sarvis is holding up well in the polling, so far. Even a drop of a few points as voters get cold feet in the voting booth could put him up over 5%, a historic showing for a third party candidate in modern Virginia politics.

When Sarvis is taken out of the Marist poll, undecideds also drop as a third option is taken off the taken. Sarvis is offering voters an alternative to holding their nose in the voting booth. But for whom?

Let’s look at what the Marist poll is showing us. I’m using both their Gubernatorial results with and without Sarvis, and the Lt. Governor’s race to illustrate party strength regionally.

DC Suburbs, 18% of Marist Poll, 18% of 2009 Exit Poll

McAullife: 56%

Cuccinelli: 34%

Sarvis: 4%

W/O Sarvis

McAullife: 55%

Cuccinelli: 38%

Northam: 54%

Jackson: 39%

The Sarvis vote here is the easy demographic to profile in this SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) analysis of Virginia. It’s Beltway Republicans who live in Arlington and think of themselves as socially moderate affluent professionals. Maybe they are closeted gay Republican press secretaries or communications directors. Maybe it’s cool to be a “Libertarian” in Alexandria instead of a “Republican.” Yeah, whatever. Vote for Sarvis if you want. Note how similar the two races are in the straight up head to head.

Northern Virginia Exurbs, 16% of Marist Poll, 14% of 2009 Exit Poll

McAullife: 42%

Cuccinelli: 42%

Sarvis: 7%

W/O Sarvis

McAullife: 49%

Cuccinelli: 44%

Northam: 40%

Jackson: 46%

In farther out Prince William and Loudoun, the race is still neck and neck. Based on the internal polls from the 87th and 34th district, I’ve already flagged the concern that turnout is still a problem in more diverse areas of Northern Virginia like the 87th. There may also be more low-information suburban voters who “like” the idea of a third party candidate, but are more up for grabs in the closing days if the Democrats focus on targeting these areas. Turnout may be up here relative to 2009, but still struggling to approach 2012 levels, obviously. The weak support for Northam is a big sign of some of the problems down-ballot, not just for Northam but for the competitive delegates races too.

Western & Central Virginia, 23% of Marist Poll, 23% of 2009 Exit Poll

McAullife: 36%

Cuccinelli: 41%

Sarvis: 14%

W/O Sarvis

McAullife: 43%

Cuccinelli: 52%

Northam: 39%

Jackson: 51%

In Western and Central Virginia (the area around Lynchburg and Charlottesville, combined with Western Virginia close to 23% of the vote), is the only area where Cuccinelli is leading. But it’s a lot closer than the blowout that Deeds suffered in this area from 2009, when he lost Western and Central Virginia 34% to 66%. This is one area where Sarvis’s numbers are likely inflated, I would be surprised if he does this well here on election day. On the other hand, Cuccinelli has been slammed on issues like protecting property rights in Southwest Virginia, and perhaps it’s pushing some Republicans to pick Sarvis.  

Richmond & Eastern Virginia, 23% of Marist Poll, 26% of 2009 Exit Poll

McAullife: 47%

Cuccinelli: 38%

Sarvis: 8%

W/O Sarvis

McAullife: 56%

Cuccinelli: 39%

Northam: 50%

Jackson: 38%

Sarvis voters swing heavily to McAullife, while the Republican vote hovers consistently around 38 to 39%. Who are these voters? The Richmond suburbs have several potentially competitive delegates seats that would open up if we could better identify and target who is unhappy with the GOP but hesitant about voting Democratic.

Tidewater, 20% of Marist Poll, 18% of 2009 Exit Poll

McAullife: 50%

Cuccinelli: 31%

Sarvis: 10%

W/O Sarvis

McAullife: 52%

Cuccinelli: 39%

Northam: 53%

Jackson: 35%

Sarvis voters in Tidewater back Cuccinelli in the head to head, the reverse from Richmond. Interesting, but I can’t explain it. This is the only region where Northam is polling in front of of McAullife, but it’s a small regional effect.

Lessons For the Next Few Weeks

1. Sarvis is polling very well for a third party candidate. Unless there’s a sharp decline suddenly, he could receive up to 5% of the vote even when you assume some portion of his supporters get cold feet in the voting booth.

Corollary A: If Republicans are giving up on Cuccinelli, they have less reason to go after Sarvis directly, more reasons to focus on Sarvis voters downballot. Fewer reasons to attack Sarvis = Sarvis’s numbers remain high. I don’t see what outside events conspire to bring Sarvis’s polling down.

2. With Sarvis voters swinging Democratic in the Northern Virginia Exurbs (and in Richmond, technically), Northam running behind McAuliffe in the Northern Virginia Exurbs, and the need to help down-ballot races like the 87th, the focus of the race in the final days will be in Prince William and Loudoun.

Corollary B: Three internals so far, all from Northern Virginia. The low hanging fruit for the House of Delegates is in Northern Virginia, a further reach would turn Democrats to Tidewater. If Democrats start showing good internals in those races, and devoting resources, it’s a sign that the landslide really is building.

3. Obenshain is the last, best hope for Republicans. Given the makeup of the undecided voters and Sarvis’s vote, it may be possible for Obenshain to pull off a narrow win, but it’s hard to see how that road doesn’t also run through Prince William and Loudoun. More on the AG’s race in the coming days…

4.  If McAuliffe hits as high as 52%, the race will likely see an absolute majority for the Democrats in 46 House of Delegates districts. Depending on Sarvis’s share of the vote, McAuliffe could be under 50% but still ahead of Cuccinelli in right at 50 of the House seats. This shows just how high the hurdle is for Democrats in the House of Delegates right now in taking back the chamber. More on the House of Delegates races in the coming days…

4 Reasons Why Sarvis Should NOT be in the Final VA Gov. Debate, & 3 Reasons Why He Should

By
lowkell
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5

The final debate of the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial race is scheduled for Oct. 24 on the campus of Virginia Tech. Currently, the only two candidates there will be Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Teapublican Ken Cuccinelli, but NOT Libertarian Robert Sarvis. The reason I’m writing about this now is that Sarvis’ wife Astrid has recorded and released a video imploring debate organizers – in emotional terms – to let her husband in.  So, the question is, should Sarvis be in the debate? Here are four (unemotional) reasons why he should NOT be in the debate and three (also unemotional) reasons why he should be, IMHO.

4 Reasons Sarvis Should NOT Be in the Debate

1. At 9.8% in the Real Clear Politics average (it was apparently at 9.1% when debate organizers made their decision not to include him), Sarvis is not at the 10% threshold set for inclusion. Fair or not, them there’s the rules, set a long time ago by CBS affiliate WDBJ7. What’s the saying, close only counts in horseshoes?

2. With little-to-no money to communicate with voters, Sarvis has absolutely no chance of being elected Virginia’s next governor. In addition, there’s no sign that he helps or hurts either of the other two candidates disproportionately. In that respect, it’s kind of irrelevant, frankly, if he’s in the debate or not.

3. According to the Daily Press, Sarvis “did not return our call inviting him to meet with the Daily Press Editorial Board,” meaning he wasn’t considered for their endorsement. I’m sorry, but that’s just not something a serious candidate for governor of Virginia would do.

4. Also not serious was Sarvis’ refusal to answer our questions, after he requested that we email them to him and that he would answer. So, where are the answers? Got me, but the last I heard from him was on October 6 (almost two weeks ago), when he emailed to say he’d get to the questions when he had “some time at the computer to address the questions properly.” Guess he’s been busy, or maybe the computer broke?!? LOL. Again, though, this is just not serious, certainly not at the gubernatorial level.

3 Reasons Sarvis SHOULD Be in the Debate

1. It would make the debate more entertaining. Frankly, at this point, we already know exactly what McAuliffe and Cuccinelli are going to say, where they stand on every issue under the sun, that they don’t like each other one bit, etc. Bo-ring! Adding Sarvis might actually give people a reason to tune in, so why not? These debates are mostly non-value-added (aka, “a waste of time”) anyway.

2. Sarvis is not exactly at 10% in the polls, but at 9.8%, he’s about as close as you can get without hitting the mark. Given that, why not add his libertarian viewpoint – with which I mostly agree on social issues, STRONGLY disagree with on everything else (economics, budget, environment, education, health care, you name it) – into the mix? It might help clarify where the other two candidates are coming from, if nothing else.

3. I know my friend and colleague Paul Goldman thinks Sarvis’ candidacy has been a total “joke,” but I’m not sure how it’s been any more of a “joke” than the Ken Cuccinelli debacle. I mean, if we’re talking “serious candidates,” then we might as well eliminate Cooch from the debate as well, given the utter fiasco (for a LOT more money than Sarvis has spent!) his campaign for governor has been.

So that’s all I’ve got – arguments for and against why Sarvis should be in the last Virginia gubernatorial debate. Not that it matters, as I doubt the debate organizers care what a blogger, the candidate himself, or the candidate’s wife have to say on this subject.

Virginia Shocker: Disappearing Evangelical, Rising Latino Voter

By
Goldmanusa
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1

by Paul Goldman

Even more amazing than Governor McDonnell’s high poll ratings is the low turnout being predicted for Evangelical/Born-Again Christian voters in the latest NBC/Marist Poll. Although I took a lot of heat for calling this key finding in the early polls, the NBC/Marist poll highlights the shocking question for Republicans: Where, oh where, is the their White Evangelical/Born-Again Christian voting base?

Either the Marist Poll is way wrong – or there is a big Disappearing Evangelical Christian Vote this year in Virginia. According to the 2009 exit poll, 34% of those polled said they where “White Evangelical/Born Again” Christians. Now maybe – I am just speculating – this poll question was only asked of those self-identifying in the poll as white. I don’t think so, but let’s assume so. Even then, the number calculates to 27%.

In the 2012 exit polls, it is also confusing to truly understand the numbers. But when you cross-check them, it would appear that the 23% given as the “White evangelical or white born-again Christian” voter share of the total electorate checks out. According to the new Marist poll, the number will be around 18%. Thus, by any analysis, there has been a significant disappearance of the White Evangelical/Born-Again Christian voter.

By any normal set of markers, this part of the GOP base – historically 6-1 Republican – should vote in greater relative numbers in 2013 than in 2012! Even assuming 23%, this would shift the Governor’s race into the TOO CLOSE TO CALL CATEGORY RIGHT NOW! That’s right: the polls are not showing a massive loss of “moderate” GOP votes by Ken Cuccinelli or even Reverend Jackson. Moreover, what would seem to be a more normalized GOP turnout in this key part of the Republican base translates into an Obenshain edge for AG right now.

So I ask: Where have all the evangelical voters gone? It defies logic given that you have Cuccinelli and Jackson at the top of the ticket. What more could these voters want, in theory at least? But maybe THAT IS THE EXACT POINT? For some reason, Reverend Jackson especially may be turning these voters off. Is that possible? It surely defies conventional wisdom.

 

Conventional wisdom is that Reverend Jackson’s whole approach to campaigning – e.g., calling Pope Francis wrong on Roman Catholic doctrine – surely should be maximizing this voter group at the polls in November. But according to Marist, it isn’t happening. Why not? Either:

1) I am reading the exit polling wrong;

2) I am reading it right but the exit polls are wrong;

3) I am right about the exit polls, but the 2013 polls are wrong about this part of the GOP base staying home.

The 2008 exit polls in Virginia seemingly state that the “White Evangelical/Born-Again” voter percentage was 28% of the total electorate. This would be significantly higher than 2012. However, if this is actually meant to only apply to the white part of the electorate, then it would translate into this part of the GOP base being roughly 20% of the electorate, similar to what is being projected by the 2013 Marist poll.

But again: Even with this assumption, the off-year 2013 turnout would be predicted to have a higher percentage of this part of the GOP base, not a lower percentage!  So we ask again, where is the missing White Evangelical/Born-Again Christian GOP voter this year?

If the Marist poll is correct, then African-American voters may outvote White Evangelical/Born-Again Christian voters for the first time EVER in a Virginia governor’s race. EVER.

If this is the new political “normalized” electorate in Virginia, then 2013 marks a watershed election, especially since, according to Marist, the Latino Vote may be DOUBLE the percentage of the electorate as it was in 2009! It is still in single digits, but a huge jump in just 4 years if the polls are right.

Clearly Democrats are doing something right, turnout wise, this year, as reflected in the polls. Could the polls be wrong? Sure, as they are not good at predicting turnout generally. However, put it another way: For the first time Virginia history, at the governor’s level, it appears that the Democratic party’s key voter base will be a BIGGER PERCENTAGE of the electorate than the key part of the GOP base.

Plus, the Democratic base is going to be more solidly Democratic than this part of the GOP base, which is only 6-1 Republican, whereas the Dem base key group should be 7-1!  With all due respect to Terry, Ralph, Mark, Tim and JohnNotMark, this is really BIG BIG POLITICAL NEWS – if true, if confirmed, and if this is the new normal.

If true, this would be a crushing blow to the Tea Party, which will now be forever locked out of top-tier statewide office. It might sneak into a lower ballot position, but it is a sure loser in a marquee race. Could anyone have predicted this back in 2009 or 2010? If so, they would have out-proofed “200 proof,” that’s for sure.

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