(Interesting analysis… – promoted by lowkell)

by Paul Goldman

Here at 200-Proof Politics, we ask the tough strategy questions without passion or prejudice. For some reason, Chris LaCivita, the Cuccinelli strategy guy, decided not to block Jackson’s nomination. Having been in that position, I can tell you this: Jackson could have been stopped. The votes were there on the floor of the Convention to do it. There would have been a price to pay for doing so: LaCivita would have paid a price, Cuccinelli a price, the same for Obenshain and others necessarily part of the coup against Jackson. Still, it could have been done, but it wasn’t done.

SO: Assuming the Cuccinelli camp figures they are stuck with Jackson, the only 200-proof option is to help him become a credible PERSON. Notice I didn’t say candidate. That is not possible right now. But it is also not job #1. Jackson’s real challenge: Become a credible person for the GOP to have on their ticket in 2013. His chances of wining depend a lot on the top of the ticket no matter what. He doesn’t control how that comes down.

Accordingly, based on my experience in 1985 – it may no longer be relevant but assuming it is – there are five things that the Jackson campaign has to do. All an LG candidate can do during the summer is position himself or herself to be able to win if the gubernatorial candidate doesn’t screw it all up for you.

The #1 thing EW Jackson has to do the next 100 days: SELL HIMSELF AS A CREDIBLE PERSON TO BE RUNNING FOR HIGH STATEWIDE OFFICE. The 200-proof strategy goes like this.

 

1. Get the GOP to fund an advertising effort to tell Virginians about your active-duty military record as a Marine. This is a lost art in Virginia politics. But it proved very helpful for Chuck Robb and Doug Wilder when they ran for LG. Admittedly that was politics from a different generation. But if done correctly, it will help make Jackson a credible PERSON.

2. Challenge the Democratic LG nominee to a series of summer debates on whatever issues and in whatever forum the DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WANTS TO PICK.  On an historic basis, I don’t recall there ever being a serious of debates between LG candidates so early in the race. The key to winning a debate is this: beating expectations. Given the current realities, it is easy for Jackson to set up the lowest possible expectations for himself for that first debate. The first debate is going to set the tone for the summer.  If Jackson can’t win the first debate given low expectations, he can’t win any debate. The Democratic LG can’t refuse to debate without hurting himself.

3. Jackson should emulate Wilder’s station wagon trip around the state, but with his own unique angle. There is some downside to the copycat thing, but at the same time, Wilder wasn’t the first to do it; most everything in politics is borrowed from someone else. This is a proven way for Jackson to become a man of the people. IT WORKS. But it is hard work and if you don’t do it right, it will cost you big.

4. Jackson needs to come up with a way of saying that his passionate religious beliefs may have led him in the past to say some things that he regrets. He can’t retract them. But he can try to put them into a far better context. This is all lose-lose for Jackson. But damage control is necessary. He needs to take his hit NOW, NOT LATER. It would be easy to do if he were to run the military stuff ASAP.

5. Jackson needs to hire a seasoned, Virginia GOP political person who is identified with the older conservative establishment wing of the party. Normally, a guy like Jackson would go with his rebel team. But my gut says that this is the rare instance with the rebel has to go counterintuitive. He has to show that he is not considered a lost cause by the older conservative establishment that isn’t all that keen on Cuccinelli. The right political guy will know that Jackson is going to need to put together a Committee of 100 GOP types who are seen as having some independence over the years to endorse Jackson. This is going to be one of the few campaigns where this kind of thing will matter. Robb used it every effectively, so did Baliles, Warner also. It is generally something at the gubernatorial level. But Jackson will need it at the LG level. His only hope of getting it is by hiring a top Virginia GOP person who has enough respect to convince folks to take a chance on Jackson.

That’s it: Jackson doesn’t need a lot of position papers, brilliant policy ideas, and the like. He is running for LG, an empty job. He is now the most intriguing political person in state politics. This could change when the Democrats pick their ticket on June 11th. Jackson has a three-week opening here. USE IT OR LOSE IT.

Bishop Jackson was a fringe candidate in 2012 against George Allen, and he has been a fringe GOP activist for even longer. In my personal view, winning the GOP LG nomination may prove to be the worst piece of good luck in his entire political career to date, perhaps his life to date. As I have said before: If he survives as a credible candidate in November, it will surprise me. But if he could follow the above 5 steps, then there is a chance I might be surprised.  

From the Democratic Party of Virginia:

Ken Cuccinelli Yesterday: “E.W. Jackson, who has been a powerful, powerful fighter and communicator for first principles”

Paid for by the Democratic Party of Virginia 

In Virginia Beach today, Ken Cuccinelli praised EW Jackson as a “powerful fighter” committed to “first principles.” In other words, Cuccinelli is admitting that bigotry (anti-LGBT, anti-Muslim, etc.), intolerance, and tinfoil-hate conspiracy theories are “first principles” worth fighting for in the Virginia Republican Party. Got it.

From the Democratic Party of Virginia:

May 19, 2013

Yesterday Virginia Tea Party Republicans made history when they nominated the most extreme statewide ticket this Commonwealth has ever seen. From banning birth control and forcing women to report miscarriages to police, to comparing Planned Parenthood to the KKK, there is no arguing that Ken Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson and Mark Obenshain are further outside the Virginia mainstream than any slate of candidates either party has ever nominated.

The Democratic Party of Virginia and concerned Virginians from all political points of view spent the last week informing voters about Ken Cuccinelli’s dangerous and extreme “personhood” agenda to ban birth control and roll back women’s rights. As the memo below demonstrates, E.W. Jackson and Mark Obenshain are the two most perfect candidates Tea Party Republicans could have nominated to walk in lockstep with Cuccinelli’s dangerous crusades.

E.W. Jackson: “Planned Parenthood Has Been Far More Lethal To Black Lives Than The KKK Ever Was.” In September 2012, E.W. Jackson posted a video in which he called on the black community to end their “slavish devotion” to the Democratic Party. In the video, he said: “The Democrat Party has created an unholy alliance between certain so-called civil rights leaders and Planned Parenthood, which has killed unborn black babies by the tens of millions. Planned Parenthood has been far more lethal to black lives than the KKK ever was.” [Bishop E.W. Jackson Message to Black Christians, 9/8/12]

E.W. Jackson Would “Permanently Defund Planned Parenthood.” According to his website, E.W. Jackson said he sought to “permanently defund Planned Parenthood,” saying: “It is an act of grave injustice to force citizens to pay for the destruction of unborn babies, whether through state or federal taxes. All funding for abortion and the organizations that provide them must be halted.” [Jackson for Lieutenant Governor, accessed 5/18/13]

E.W. Jackson: Gay People Are “Perverted” And “Very Sick.” In October 2012, Right Wing Watch reported about E.W. Jackson’s appearance on a radio show with Peter LaBarbera and John Kirkwood. Jackson said about gays and lesbians: “Their minds are perverted, they’re frankly very sick people psychologically, mentally and emotionally and they see everything through the lens of homosexuality. When they talk about love they’re not talking about love, they’re talking about homosexual sex. So they can’t see clearly.” [Right Wing Watch, 10/25/12]

E.W. Jackson: Homosexuality “Destroys Families, It Destroys Societies; It Brings The Judgment Of God.” In October 2012, Right Wing Watch reported about E.W. Jackson’s appearance on a radio show with Peter LaBarbera and John Kirkwood. Jackson said: “Homosexuality is a horrible sin, it poisons culture, it destroys families, it destroys societies; it brings the judgment of God unlike very few things that we can think of.” [Right Wing Watch, 10/25/12]

E.W. Jackson: Homosexuality Tries To “Poison” And “Sexualize” Children. In October 2012, Right Wing Watch reported about E.W. Jackson’s appearance on a radio show with Peter LaBarbera and John Kirkwood. Jackson said of homosexuality: “Look, it also attempts to poison our children, divide them from their parents and the teaching of the church and basically turn them into pawns for that movement so that they can sexualize them at the earliest possible age. It really is insidious and I agree with you, it is a super sin.” [Right Wing Watch, 10/25/12]

E.W. Jackson: Gays And Lesbians “Want To Destroy” Culture; Said They Were Forcing Christians To Change Their Beliefs. In October 2012, Right Wing Watch reported about E.W. Jackson’s appearance on a radio show with Peter LaBarbera and John Kirkwood. Jackson said of homosexuality: “They’ve got to transform the culture in order to make their lifestyles fully acceptable to everyone. I used two words to describe what they’re trying to do: authoritarian and totalitarian, and I believe that. I believe that they are of a mindset that says we want to destroy in any way we need to anyone who dares oppose this agenda, that’s a very, very dangerous approach. They don’t just say tolerate us and you may think we’re wrong and that’s okay; no, it’s not okay for you to even think that or to believe that even if you do so because of sincerely held religious beliefs, you better either change your beliefs or prepare to suffer persecution and that’s just where they’re coming from. They are using every tool in the culture in order to get it done, every business that will go along with it, every TV show, they got plenty of support from Hollywood, they’re using literature, magazines, you name it, they are continuously telling us this is good, this is right, this is okay.” [Right Wing Watch, 10/25/12]

Jackson: Democratic Party Represented “Godlessness” And “Anti-Christian Bigotry.” In October 2010, Right Wing Watch reported: “All four speakers criticized the Democrats while praising the Tea Party. Bishop Jackson maintained that the Democratic Party represents ‘godlessness,’ and stands for ‘fiscal irresponsibility, moral relativism or amorality, anti-Christian bigotry, and a foreign policy of surrender and appeasement.'” [Right Wing Watch, 10/4/10]

Jackson Said That Gay Marriage Is Like “Spitting In The Face Of Every Bible-Believing Christian In America.” In August 2012, Charisma News reported: “Later this month when Democrats make same-sex marriage part of their official Party Platform, the former practicing attorney says they will be spitting in the face of every Bible-believing Christian in America: ‘They will be saying, “We don’t care what you think, what you believe, or what the Bible or the God of the Bible says. We know better than God.”‘ [Charisma News, 8/8/12]

Mark Obenshain: A Record of Mean-Spirited Attacks on Women’s Rights

Obenshain Co-Patroned “Personhood” Bill With Cuccinelli. Obenshain has repeatedly supported “personhood” legislation that would outlaw all abortion and many common forms of birth control. [HB2797, 2007; HB1, 2/23/12]

Obenshain Introduced A Bill That Would Require Women To Report Miscarriages To Police. “Sen. Mark D. Obenshain, R-Harrisonburg, made himself a lightning rod for criticism by introducing a bill that would require a woman to report her miscarriage to police with 24 hours.” [SB 962, 2009; Virginia Lawyers Weekly, 1/28/09]

Obenshain Introduced Bill Requiring Women to Report Miscarriages to the Police

In 2009, Sen. Mark Obenshain introduced legislation that would require women to report miscarriages to the police within 24 hours or face a Class 1 misdemeanor. According to the Virginia Legislative Information System, the bill “Requires that when a fetal death occurs without medical attendance upon the mother at or after the delivery or abortion, the mother or someone acting on her behalf, within 24 hours, report the fetal death, location of the remains, and identity of the mother to the local or state police or sheriff’s department of the city or county where the fetal death occurred. The bill also specifies that no one shall remove, destroy, or otherwise dispose of any remains without the express authorization of law-enforcement officials or the medical examiner, and that a violation of this section is a Class 1 misdemeanor.” [SB 962, 2009]

HEADLINE: Bill would require police report of miscarriage in Virginia [Virginia Lawyers Weekly, 1/26/09]

Virginia Lawyers Weekly: Obenshain Bill Would Require Women to Report Miscarriage to Police within 24 Hours

In January 2009, Virginia Lawyers Weekly reported, “Sen. Mark D. Obenshain, R-Harrisonburg, made himself a lightning rod for criticism by introducing a bill that would require a woman to report her miscarriage to police with 24 hours.” [Virginia Lawyers Weekly, 1/26/09]

Obenshain Opposed Bipartisan Transportation Bill. Obenshain voted against Bob McDonnell’s bipartisan transportation funding package. [HB2313, 2/23/13, 4/3/13]

Obenshain voted against of adding sexual orientation to Virginia’s non-discrimination policy. [SB66, 3/9/10]

Obenshain Sponsored Bill To Outlaw Abortions After Twenty Weeks. In February 2012, the Daily Press reported: “Sen. Harry Blevins, R-Chesapeake, abstained Thursday, thereby killing a measure before the Senate Education and Health Committee that would have outlawed elective abortions in Virginia after 20 weeks. The bill, sponsored by Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Harrisonburg, would have made elective abortions after 20 weeks because he said there is medical evidence that a fetus can feel pain at that point in its gestation. The measure would have allowed abortions after that point if the mother’s life or health is threatened.” [Daily Press, 2/2/12]

JMU Board Of Visitors Member Obenshain Supported JMU’s Decision To Stop Providing Emergency Contraception To Students, Said That “We Don’t Provide A Full Range Of Abortion Services”

In April 2003, the AP reported: “In response to a complaint from a state legislator, James Madison University will stop providing “morning after” birth-control pills at its campus health center. The state-supported college’s board of visitors voted Friday to stop dispensing the emergency contraception pill after receiving a letter from Del. Robert Marshall, R-Manassas, criticizing the practice. Board member Mark Obenshain, who is running for the state Senate in the 26th District, characterized the pill as a type of abortion. ‘We don’t provide a full range of abortion services,’ he said. He said students who want the pill can still get it from off-campus sources.” [AP, 4/19/03]

Obenshain Said Emergency Contraception Was A Form Of Abortion, Moved For JMU To Stop Selling It. In April 2003, the Richmond Times Dispatch reported: “At the meeting, board member Mark D. Obenshain moved that JMU cease selling levonorgestrel, according to school spokesman Fred Hilton. Hilton said a clear majority of the board approved the motion but an exact vote count was not taken. Obenshain said yesterday that causing the discharge of a fertilized egg constitutes a type of abortion. A public university should not support the use of such a drug through mandatory student fees, he said. ‘One of the effects of the pill is to cause the destruction of a fertilized egg,’ he said. ‘Do people categorize that as having an abortion effect? Yes. Do I? Yes.'” [Richmond Times Dispatch, 4/22/03]

Obenshain Moved For JMU To Stop Providing Emergency Contraception After Bob Marshal Petitioned Him. In April 2003, the Washington Post reported: “But according to JMU board member Mark Obenshain, now leading the charge against the eight-year practice, the board had no idea the pills were available until Del. Robert Marshall, a Manassas Republican and abortion opponent, sent a strongly worded letter of complaint to JMU President Linwood Rose. Marshall also contacted Obenshain, a Republican lawyer and abortion opponent from Harrisonburg seeking election to the Virginia Senate. Marshall has since raised similar objections at other state schools.” [Washington Post, 4/24/03]

Obenshain On Emergency Contraception: “No One Can, With A Straight Face, Suggest That This Pill Is Not An Abortion Agent.” In May 2003, the James Madison University Breeze quoted Mark Obenshain talking about emergency contraception: “No one can, with a straight face, suggest that this pill is not an abortion agent.” [James Madison University Breeze, 5/8/03]

Obenshain: JMU Board Was “Absolutely Right In Voting To Discontinue The Irresponsible Distribution Of The Morning-After Pill.” In May 2003, the James Madison University Breeze reported: “Obenshain said he ‘appreciated the opportunity to talk with two very well-spoken students today about the distribution of the morning-after pill and my vote to stop the Health Center’s distribution of this drug.’ Obenshain said the board was ‘absolutely right in voting to discontinue the irresponsible distribution of the morning-after pill, and I continue to stand by that decision.'” [James Madison University Breeze, 5/8/03]

(Key lines: “He isn’t remotely qualified to be Governor of Virginia. NOT IN THE LEAST. He will be seen as not qualified to be Lt. Governor either, the biggest part of that job being ready to take over as Governor if need be…It is hard to believe a major party could nominate someone who by performance is unqualified to be Lt. Governor. You really have to work hard at finding such a nominee. But the GOP managed to do it.” – promoted by lowkell)

by Paul Goldman

Give it time: But just wait for the eventual reaction to Action Jackson, aka Bishop Jackson, who managed to pull the biggest sting operation since Newman and Redford in winning the Virginia GOP nomination for LG. According to Aristotle it was possible, although perhaps not according to Sir Isaac Newton.

Like I say: Just wait, Bishop Jackson’s nomination will eventually be proof, one way or the other, as to whether Newton’s laws of Motion apply to politics. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

SO FIRST: The Action. On paper, Bishop E. W. Jackson Sr. seems too good to be true in terms of a political resume for the post of Lt. Governor, a job with less responsibility than the president of the 6th grade class at your local elementary school. What a resume it is: A former Marine, Phi Beta Kappa at U Mass in Boston, Harvard Law graduate, Deputy Commissioner of Banks for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Executive Director of a community group in West Milford, law professor at Northeastern Univ., an ordained minister, a Chaplain for the Boston Fire Department, nationally syndicated talk show host, author of the book “Ten Commandments To An Extraordinary Life”, founder of his own ministry, organizer of non-profit groups working to fight gangs and help needy youth, a trustee of the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce, the list is endless.

Bishop Jackson is now the “it guy” of VA GOP conservatism. Ken Cuccinelli is already “old hat” with GOP conservatives. As in BORING! This is clear from the AG’s speech. A younger Cuccinelli would have known how to use the IRS scandal to bring the convention hall to its feet. The IRS scandal is a golden political quip maker for any conservative GOP candidate. But the AG has become, in his own mind, too serious a guy to be anything but serious. His campaign is thus devoid of real energy, just the energy from the past. BORING!

Obenshain, holder of the most storied name in all of VA GOP land, has likewise now been reduced to establishment conservative…BORING BORING!

Enter then, Action Jackson – the Bishop on the edge, the guy who studies law, teaches religion, but is at his best being Charlie Sheen, aka the psychotherapist in the unfunny TV show “Anger Management.” The GOP conservatives are angry: big time angry. The Bishop gets it. They don’t want Tony Soprano’s shrink. They don’t want Billy Crystal, they don’t want Adam Sandler or Jack Nicholson. Forget Oprah, Dr. Phil, Freud and the rest.

The GOP isn’t interested in anger management: that misses the point. The GOP wants anger “channeling”, they want someone to take their anger and use it to bash all those the GOP is angry at. Bishop Jackson figured that out a few years ago. He has been working at figuring out how to channel that anger to his benefit. This is America, he is a free enterprise Bishop.

As someone who enjoys playing the game, I congratulate him. His strategy in recent years has been brilliant. I never thought the GOP would fall for it to the extent they just did yesterday. Bishop Jackson has mastered the art of the illusion: as Houdini pointed out, it is not about what you do, it is about what your audience sees. Politics is mostly perception,  hopefully everyone knows this by now.

But there are different levels of perception, meaning sooner or later, the substance of who you are catches up with the perception you try to create. “The truth crushed to Earth will rise” kind of thing. “He can run but he can’t hide” famously remarked Joe Louis.Action Jackson is a great image, but not the real Bishop Jackson in the end.  

When you run in a convention process, the delegates learn little about your actual record. The nature of the process doesn’t require much explanation of what you did prior to seeking the nomination. Indeed, with an underdog like Bishop Jackson, few delegates gave him a lot of thought until late in the delegate selection process. Moreover, the nature of the process doesn’t really require a candidate to do a lot of debating with opponents, or provide a lot of detail on much of anything. It is an insider process, out of sight of the public and the press for the most part.

When you run in a nomination primary process, the press is required to cover it, and so they naturally have to fill a certain amount of column inches. There tend also to be debates, issuance of position papers, press conferences, and the like. Not exactly an MRI of one’s heart and soul and politics, but at least a candidate has to provide some ideas, some background, some history of performance, and the like of interest at least to those covering the campaign, to the opponents looking for weak spots, and the voters who have to make a choice.

In the modern era, the primary process for LG has produced nominees Chuck Robb, Tim Kaine, John Hager, Leslie Byrne and Jody Wagner. The first two went on to be Governor. Mr. Hager was a former GOP chairman and served in Governor Warner’s cabinet. Ms. Byrne was the state’s first female member of Congress, and Ms. Wagner served in top financial positions to Warner and Governor Kaine. They all had public records and their ability to govern, if called upon to be Governor, was not in doubt.

Whether you agreed with their politics and resumes was not the issue: they all had passed the test to run for LG on their own. BY PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE. The primary process made sure of this. Perception still ruled, but it was tempered to a large degree by actual performance.

By contrast, the convention process – used by the GOP except in 1997 and by the Democrats in 1971 for a special LG election and then between 1981 and 1997 for regularly scheduled elections – has hit a few bumps in the political road when it comes to nominating LGs. In 1971, the delegates to the Dem convention to pick an LG nominee for a special election (incumbent LG “Sarge” Reynolds had died after a struggle with brain cancer) – rejected the clear choice of the rank-and-file voters. They refused to nominate Norfolk Senator Henry E. Howell. In turn, Howell bolted the party, ran as an independent against the Dem and GOP nominee, winning a huge upset although with only 40% of the vote.

In 1977, the GOP convention nominated Virginia Beach Senator Joe Canada, who decided to turn the LG election into a referendum on the Panama Canal! Needless to say, he lost a race that he probably could have won given the GOP landslide win that year for Governor.

In 1981, the GOP nominated a little-known State Senator from the Shenandoah Valley area. It quickly turned out the delegates had not done their homework, as this Senator was soon DOA due to a conflict of interest scandal that would have been exposed in a primary process. He got crushed.

In 1985, the choice of the GOP grassroots was rejected by party leaders who didn’t much like the him. With Democrats having nominated Doug Wilder, the GOP high command figured any Republican who was breathing on election day was a sure winner. So they picked former Democrat turned Republican John Chichester, a Senator from the Fredericksburg area, to be the nominee. He turned out to be a dreadful candidate, losing a 20-point lead in an historic upset.

In 1993, the GOP convention nominated NOVA lawyer Mike Farris, another grassroots conservative favorite with what seemed a good political resume on paper: lawyer, family man, a leader on education issues, a national speaker on conservative causes, the usual thing that tends to wow delegates but not voters. He lost the general election, despite a big GOP landslide that would surely have carried most other potential LG nominees to victory.

All these folks won the LG nomination because perception had not yet caught up their reality. When it did, they all got defeated handily. They were not want they seemed.

Now comes 2013.

Bishop Jackson COULDN’T WIN A PRIMARY NOMINATION FOR LG. As they say in Texas, he is “all hat and no cowboy.” When the public learns of his performance – the videos, speeches, books, pamphlets, how his organizations are run, the finances, the Bishop Jackson, not the myth the VA GOP was so eager to buy they were too negligent to uncover – it will all boil down to one thing. He isn’t remotely qualified to be Governor of Virginia. NOT IN THE LEAST. He will be seen as not qualified to be Lt. Governor either, the biggest part of that job being ready to take over as Governor if need be.

Legally speaking, the GOP has until sometime in September to replace him on the ballot with another nominee for LG. All that being said, Bishop Jackson had the ability to win the nomination in a huge upset. So he can’t be counted out; he is a threat to win in November. But in terms of practical politics: if the VA Democrats lose to this guy, then it will mean a GOP sweep in November, and the necessity for the party leadership to resign in mass, join the Peace Corps, and agree to never to venture into the Commonwealth again. EVER.  

It is hard to believe a major party could nominate someone who by performance is unqualified to be Lt. Governor. You really have to work hard at finding such a nominee. But the GOP managed to do it.

It now seems more inevitable than ever that the issue of same sex marriage is going to be very big in 2013. It is difficult to believe  any major party anywhere in the 50 states will nominate for LG someone as actively opposed to same-sex marriage as Bishop Jackson. Depending on the Supreme Court decision expected next month on marriage issues, Virginia could easily become ground zero in the same-sex marriage debate.

Could Bishop Jackson ride that issue to victory in November? First, he has to be on the ballot. There is a lot the GOP didn’t know about Bishop Jackson. Let’s first see what happens as his proven performance becomes more important than his resume.