See below for some maps from VPAP, depicting “Potential Early Votes by Precinct” — “calculated as follows: (absentee ballots returned, both those cast by mail and in-person) + (the number of outstanding mail ballot applications) divided (total number of registered voters)” — and some highlights.
- In Virginia overall, clearly the lightest colors – ergo, the lowest % of potential early votes – are in rural/”red” Southwestern Virginia and also in rural “red” western Virginia.
- The darkest colors – ergo, the highest % of potential early votes – generally trace the urban/suburban “crescent” running from Hampton Roads to the Richmond area (Richmond City, Henrico County, Chesterfield County, etc.) through Northern Virginia, plus “blue” places like Albemarle County, Charlottesville and also “purple” Montgomery County. These areas are generally “blue” or even “deep-blue” politically speaking.
- But…as I noted the last time I posted on this subject, check out the more detailed maps, below, and you’ll see it’s not always so cut-and-dried within regions with regard to correlation between early voting and partisan makeup.
- In Hampton Roads, there are a few precincts in the 50%’s (e.g., Courthouse in Virginia Beach, Waterway II in Chesapeake, Grassfield in Chesapeake, Georgetown East in Chesapeake, Larchmont Library in Norfolk, Chrysler Museum in Norfolk, Bethel in Hampton), a bunch in the 40%s (Mallory in Hampton, Willard in Norfolk, Cape Henry in VA Beach, Waterway in Chesapeake, Parkways in Chesapeake, Sunray II in Chesapeake, etc.) and the rest mostly in the 20%s and 30%s. Note that these are a mix of precincts politically (e.g., Grassfield went 63.8% for Trump, while Chrysler Museum went 63.7% for Clinton).
- In the Richmond area, there are a few 50%s (e.g., 413, 414, 203, 307 and 308 in Richmond City; Tuckahoe and Canterbury in Henrico County); a slew of 40%s (e.g., 102, 105, 106, 215, 402, 503, in Richmond City; Eanes, Sullivans, Dorey in Henrico County; Robious, Belgrade, Midlothian North, Midlothian in Chesterfield County); and a bunch of 20%s and 30%s as well, with a few pockets under 20% (e.g., 101, 602, 610, 701 in Richmond City; Essex Village in Henrico County). Again, these are mix politically, with mostly deep-blue precincts in Richmond City, but more of a mix in Henrico (e.g., Eanes and Sullivans went for Clinton, while Tuckahoe and Canterbury went for Trump) and Chesterfield Counties (e.g., Robious and Midlothian went for Trump, while Belgrade was almost evenly split).
In Northern Virginia, there are a slew of precincts in the 50%s or higher – such as 60.5% in Overlee Knolls (Arlington), 60.0% in Rock Spring (Arlington, 58.7% in Yorktown (Arlington), 72.6% in Alvey (PW County), 68.1% in Heritage Hunt (PW County), 56.2% in Battlefield (PW County), 61.4% in Maury School (Alexandria), 62.4% in Belmont Ridge (Loudoun County), 53.3% in Stone Hill (Loudoun County), 51.6% in John Champe (Loudoun County), 60.2% in Ashby Ponds (Fairfax County), 53.7% in Vienna #6 (Fairfax County), 52.2% in Oak Marr (Fairfax County), 51.2% in Kilmer (Fairfax County). There are also a ton in the 40%s, with most 30%s (and a few 20%s) in southern Fairfax County — Gunston at 33.1%, Hybla Valley at 30.4%, etc.; in western Prince William County — Brentsville 30.9%, Westgate 31.9%, etc.; and as you get into Fauquier and Stafford. Needless to say, most parts of inner NoVA are very “blue” politically.