Ranking Virginia House of Delegates Districts*, From Safest “Red” or “Blue” to Most Competitive

In 2021, it’s certain that the entire Virginia House of Delegates – all 100 seats – will be up for election.  What’s *not* certain is whether those races will run under newly redistricted lines – as they’re supposed to be, given new Census numbers – or whether we don’t get new Census numbers until it’s too late, necessitating that the elections be held under current lines. As Virginia-based political analyst Chaz Nuttycombe points out:

“If the current map for the Virginia House of Delegates stays in place, I’d say a Republican net gain in the chamber is likely in 2021. Republicans haven’t had a net gain in state legislative seats in a regular election year here in VA since 2011.

The net gain, in my current view, would range from +1 to +5. If Republicans have a net gain of 5 in November, assuming Democrats win HD-02, which is very likely, there will be a tied House of Delegates, resulting in a power-sharing agreement.

If Virginia gets the Census data on time and we get to draw new maps, then Democrats are in a pretty good position to hold an outright majority thanks to the undoing of Republican gerrymandering and population changes favoring them.”

A related question is when primaries will be held – in June, as they usually are, or later in the summer or even early in the fall if we’re waiting for Census numbers and the redistricting process to be completed. The bottom line right now, as NPR reported the other day, is that while detailed Census data needed for redistricting is “supposed to be delivered to the states by the end of March at the latest,” that very well might not happen (in part thanks to COVID-19, in part thanks to the Trump administration’s incompetence/idiocy/etc.), leaving “Virginia and New Jersey…in really tough spots because they’re set to hold elections next year.” And, as Del. Marcus Simon notes, “So far with the census, it’s followed Murphy’s Law, which is that anything that can go wrong has.”

In short, don’t hold your breath for 2021 Virginia House of Delegates elections to be held under newly drawn lines. So what if those races are run under *currently existing* lines? Here’s a rough ranking, in descending order from safest “red” or “blue” to the most competitive districts, assuming that President Biden’s approval ratings next fall aren’t particularly great or particularly terrible, and also assuming that Democrats win the governor’s race by mid-single-digits or higher. Also, we’ll see how many Democrats step up and run in 2021, given that we’ll be past President Trump (than goodness) as well as past the anti-Trump backlash, which played a huge role in 2017 and 2019 here in Virginia, arguably giving us both “blue waves.” Will Democrats take their feet off the accelerators once Trump is gone? Let’s hope not, but we’re going to find out soon, one way or the other.

P.S. It’s also worth noting that the 2019 elections were “only” for the General Assembly, with no “statewide” races, the type of election year in which Democratic turnout often “drops off” significantly. Next year, it’s a gubernatorial election year, so will Democratic turnout be high because of that, even with a reduction in the anti-Trump-backlash effect? Maybe it will all even out?

P.P.S. For comparison purposes, see Chaz Nuttycombe’s very early look at the 2021 House of Delegates races here. Back in July 2020, Chaz had Democratic Delegates Roslyn Tyler, Josh Cole, Alex Askew, and Nancy Guy as Toss Ups; Democratic Delegates Wendy Gooditis and Rodney Willett as Tilt Ds; Democratic Delegates Hala Ayala, Schuyler VanValkenberg, Lee Carter, Dan Helmer, Kelly Convirs Fowler, Lachresce Aird, Martha Mugler, and Elizabeth Guzman as Lean D; Democratic Delegates Mike Mullin and Danica Roem as Likely Ds; Republican Delegate Roxann Robinson as Tilt Rs; Republican Delegates Glenn Davis, Kirk Cox, Barry Knight and Rob Bloxom as Lean Rs; Republican Delegates Wilt, Coyner, and Batten as Likely Rs

SAFE SEATS (Roughly speaking, districts Corey Stewart won in 2018 by 10 points are more are considered safe Republican, while districts Tim Kaine won in 2018 by 20 points or more are considered safe Democratic. Other factors include whether or not it’s an open seat, how well the incumbent fared in 2019, whether the incumbent is being primaried, whether there’s already a strong challenger, etc.)

• HD71 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 90%-Corey Stewart 8%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del.  Jeff Bourne (D), reelected with 88.20% of the vote in 2019.
• HD69 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 88%-Corey Stewart 10%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Betsy Carr (D), reelected with 97.64% of the vote in 2019. (Also note that Del. Carr is being primaried by Michael Jones.)
• HD89 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 85%-Corey Stewart 13%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Jay Jones (D), reelected with 96.18% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Hannah Kinder is listed on VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD49 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 83%-Corey Stewart 15%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Alfonso Lopez (D), reelected with 83.43% of the vote in 2019. (Also note that Del. Lopez is being primaried by Karishma Mehta)
• HD46 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 82%-Corey Stewart 16%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Charniele Herring (D), reelected with 92.03% of the vote in 2019.
• HD47 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 81%-Corey Stewart 16%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Patrick Hope (D), reelected with 96.12% of the vote in 2019. (Also note that Del. Hope is being primaried by Matt Rogers)
• HD57 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 81%-Corey Stewart 17%): Safe Democratic; Del. Sally Hudson (D), first elected in 2019 with 96.11% of the vote.
• HD45 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 80%-Corey Stewart 17%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Mark Levine (D), reelected with 91.46% of the vote in 2019.
• HD92 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 79%-Corey Stewart 20%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Jeion Ward  (D), reelected with 93.51% of the vote in 2019.
• HD52 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 79%-Corey Stewart 20%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Luke Torian (D), reelected with 73.02% of the vote in 2019.
• HD74 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 77%-Corey Stewart 22%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del.  Lamont Bagby (D), reelected with 95.67% of the vote in 2019.
• HD48 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 76%-Corey Stewart 22%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del.  Rip Sullivan (D), reelected with 94.19% of the vote in 2019.
• HD53 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 76%-Corey Stewart 22%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Marcus Simon (D), reelected with 93.84% of the vote in 2019.
• HD03 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 76%-Tim Kaine 23%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Will Morefield (R), reelected with 98.03% of the vote in 2019.
• HD36 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 75%-Corey Stewart 23%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Ken Plum (D), reelected with 92.94% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Republican Matthew Lang is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD43 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 75%-Corey Stewart 23%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Mark Sickles (D), reelected with 77.80% of the vote in 2019.
• HD70 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 75%-Corey Stewart 24%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Delores McQuinn (D), reelected with 94.66% of the vote in 2019.
• HD38 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 74%-Corey Stewart 24%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Kaye Kory (D), reelected with 93.26% of the vote in 2019.
• HD44 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 74%-Corey Stewart 24%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Paul Krizek (D), reelected with 70.67% of the vote in 2019.
• HD01 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 74%-Tim Kaine 25%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Terry Kilgore (R), reelected with 95.69% of the vote in 2019.
• HD06 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 73% – Tim Kaine 26%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Jeff Campbell (R), reelected with 76.86% of the vote in 2019.
• HD35 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 72%-Corey Stewart 25%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del.  Mark Keam (D), reelected with 92.75% of the vote in 2019.
• HD95 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 72%-Corey Stewart 26%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Cia Price (D), reelected with 90.22% of the vote in 2019.
• HD80 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 72%-Corey Stewart 26%): Safe Democratic; Del. Don Scott (D), first elected in 2019 with 66.01% of the vote.
• HD05: Safe Republican (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 72%-Tim Kaine 27%); incumbent Del. Israel O’Quinn (R), reelected with 97.66% of the vote in 2019.
• HD39 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 71%-Corey Stewart 27%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Vivian Watts (D), reelected with 68.35% of the vote in 2019.
• HD37 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 71%-Corey Stewart 27%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del.  David Bulova (D), reelected with 91.89% of the vote in 2019.
• HD90 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 71%-Corey Stewart 28%): Safe Democratic; former Del. Joe Lindsey (D) – left to become a judge – reelected with 91.84% of the vote in 2019; the Democratic nominee to fill this seat is Angelia Williams Graves.
• HD86 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 70%-Corey Stewart 27%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Ibraheem Samirah  (D), reelected with 88.92% of the vote in 2019.
• HD04 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 70%- Tim Kaine 28%): Safe Republican; Del. Will Wampler (R), first elected in 2019 with 62.91% of the vote.
• HD41 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 69%-Corey Stewart 29%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Eileen Filler-Corn  (D), reelected with 71.58% of the vote in 2019.
• HD15 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 69%- Tim Kaine 30%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Todd Gilbert (R), reelected with 74.36% of the vote in 2019.
• HD09 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 69% – Tim Kaine 30%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Charles Poindexter (R), reelected with 96.31% of the vote in 2019.
• HD11 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 68%-Corey Stewart 30%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Sam Rasoul  (D), reelected with 94.38% of the vote in 2019.
• HD19 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 68%-Tim Kaine 30%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Terry Austin (R), reelected with 97.04% of the vote in 2019.
• HD87 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 67%-Corey Stewart 31%): Safe Democratic; Del. Suhas Subramanyam  (D), first elected in 2019 with 62.00% of the vote.
• HD77 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 67%-Corey Stewart 31%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Cliff Hayes (D), reelected with 91.42% of the vote in 2019.
• HD67 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 66%-Corey Stewart 32%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Karrie Delaney (D), reelected with 89.34% of the vote in 2019.
• HD42 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 65%-Corey Stewart 33%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Kathy Tran (D), reelected with 59.66% of the vote in 2019.
• HD32 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 65%-Corey Stewart 33%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. David Reid (D), reelected with 92.62% of the vote in 2019.
• HD97 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 65%-Tim Kaine 33%): Safe Republican; Del. Scott Wyatt (R), first elected in 2019 with 55.73% of the vote.
• HD02 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 65%-Corey Stewart 34%): Safe Democratic; former Del.  Jennifer Carroll Foy (D), reelected with 60.92% of the vote in 2019; Democratic nominee Candi King.
• HD79 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 63%-Corey Stewart 35%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Steve Heretick  (D), reelected with 87.42% of the vote in 2019.
• HD94 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 63%-Corey Stewart 35%): Safe Democratic; Del. Shelly Simonds (D), first elected in 2019 with 57.72% of the vote.
• HD24 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 63%-Tim Kaine 35%):  Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Ronnie Campbell (R), reelected with 66.05% of the vote in 2019.
• HD34 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 63% – Corey Stewart 35%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Kathleen Murphy (D), reelected with 58.35% of the vote in 2019. (Also note that Del. Murphy is being primaried by Jennifer Adeli)
• HD22 (Corey Stewart 63%-Tim Kaine 35%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Kathy Byron (R), reelected with 68.96% of the vote in 2019.
• HD13 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 62%-Corey Stewart 36%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Danica Roem (D), reelected with 55.92% of the vote in 2019.
• HD76 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 62% – Corey Stewart 37%): Safe Democratic; Del. Clinton Jenkins (D) first elected in 2019, with 56.33% of the vote.
• HD98 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 60% – Tim Kaine 38%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Keith Hodges (R), reelected with 68.92% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Ella Webster is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD59 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 60% – Tim Kaine 39%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Matt Fariss (R), reelected with 63.22% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Ben Moses is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD16 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 59% – Tim Kaine 39%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Les Adams (R), reelected with 74.56% of the vote in 2019.
• HD07 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 59% – Tim Kaine 39%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Nick Rush  (R), reelected with 66.74% of the vote in 2019.
• HD23 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 58% – Tim Kaine 39%): Safe Republican; Del. Wendell Walker (R), first elected in 2019 with 63.84% of the vote.
• HD08 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 58% – Tim Kaine 40%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Joe McNamara (R), reelected with 66.38%% of the vote in 2019.
• HD93 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 58%-Corey Stewart 40%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Mike Mullin (D), reelected with 55.66% of the vote in 2019.
• HD29 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 58% – Tim Kaine 40%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Chris Collins (R), reelected with 64.36% of the vote in 2019. (Note: Collins resigned in June 2020 to become a judge; Republican Bill Wiley won the special election and is running for reelection)
• HD63 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 58%-Corey Stewart 41%): Safe Democratic; incumbent Del. Lashrecse Aird (D), reelected with 55.04% of the vote in 2019.
• HD18 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 57% – Tim Kaine 41%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Michael Webert (R), reelected with 60.31% of the vote in 2019.
• HD30 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 57% – Tim Kaine 41%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Nick Freitas (R), reelected with 56.22% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Annette Hyde is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD61 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 57% – Tim Kaine 41%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Tommy Wright (R), reelected with 66.77% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Trudy Berry is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD17 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 56% – Tim Kaine 42%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Christopher Head (R), reelected with 93.53% of the vote in 2019.
• HD78 (Corey Stewart 56%-Tim Kaine 42%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del.  Jay Leftwich (R), reelected with 91.30% of the vote in 2019.
• HD65 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 57% – Tim Kaine 41%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Lee Ware  (R), reelected with 65.05% of the vote in 2019.
• HD55 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 55% – Tim Kaine 43%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Buddy Fowler (R), reelected with 60.06% of the vote in 2019.
• HD99 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 55% – Tim Kaine 44%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Margaret Ransone (R), reelected with 62.43% of the vote in 2019.
• HD60 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 55%- Tim Kaine 44%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. James Edmunds (R), reelected with 66.21% of the vote in 2019.
• HD64 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 55% – Tim Kaine 44%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. Emily Brewer (R), reelected with 60.12% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Michele Joyce is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD25 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 54% – Tim Kaine 43%): Safe Republican; Del. Chris Runion (R), first elected in 2019 with 58.13% of the vote. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Jennifer Kitchen is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD20 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 54% – Tim Kaine 44%): Safe Republican; Del. John Avoli (R), first elected in 2019 with 58.47% of the vote.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN (Roughly speaking, districts Tim Kaine won by 15-20 points are likely Democratic, while districts Corey Stewart and/or Donald Trump won are likely Republican. Other factors include whether or not it’s an open seat, how well the incumbent fared in 2019, whether the incumbent is being primaried, whether there’s already a strong challenger, etc.)

• HD68 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 61%-Corey Stewart 37%): Leans Democratic; incumbent Del. Dawn Adams (D), reelected with 54.60% of the vote in 2019. (Also note that Del. Adams is being primaried by Kyle Elliott)
• HD72 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 59%-Corey Stewart 39%): Likely Democratic; incumbent Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D), reelected with 53.26% of the vote in 2019.
• HD21 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 58%-Corey Stewart 40%): Likely Democratic; incumbent Del. Kelly Fowler (D), reelected with 54.54% of the vote in 2019.
• HD91 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 57%-Corey Stewart 41%): Likely Democratic; Del. Martha Mugler (D), first elected in 2019, with 54.74% of the vote.
• HD12 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 57%-Corey Stewart 40%): Likely Democratic; incumbent Del. Chris Hurst (D), reelected with 53.56% of the vote in 2019.
• HD56 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 53%-Tim Kaine 45%): Safe Republican; incumbent Del. John McGuire (R), reelected with 60.97% of the vote in 2019.
• HD81 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 52%-Tim Kaine 46%): Likely Republican; incumbent Del. Barry Knight (R), reelected with 52.11% of the vote in 2019.
• HD14 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 51%-Tim Kaine 48%): Likely Republican; incumbent Del. Danny Marshall (R), reelected with 61.25% of the vote in 2019.
• HD33 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 50%- Tim Kaine 47%; 2016 U.S. Presidential results: Donald Trump 55%-Hillary Clinton 39%): Likely Republican; incumbent Del. Dave LaRock (R), reelected with 56.75% of the vote in 2019.
• HD54 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 50%-Tim Kaine 48%): Likely Republican; incumbent Del. Bobby Orrock (R), reelected with 57.95% of the vote in 2019.
• HD88 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 50% – Tim Kaine 48%; 2016 U.S. Presidential results: Donald Trump 55% – Hillary Clinton 39%): Likely Republican; incumbent Del. Mark Cole (R), reelected with 55.67% of the vote in 2019. (Note: one Democrat, Ashton Spencer, is listed by VPAP as running for this seat as of 12/28)
• HD96 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 50%-Tim Kaine 48%; 2016 U.S. Presidential results: Donald Trump 54% – Hillary Clinton 40%): Likely Republican; Del. Amanda Batten (R), first elected in 2019 with 52.48% of the vote. (Note: one Democrat, Mark Downey, is listed by VPAP as running for this seat as of 12/28)
• HD82 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Corey Stewart 49%- Tim Kaine 49%; 2016 U.S. Presidential results: Donald Trump 55%-Hillary Clinton 39%): Likely Republican; incumbent Del. Jason Miyares (R), reelected with 59.20% of the vote in 2019; Miyares is running for Attorney General.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN (Districts currently held by a Democrat rated “lean” if, despite being a district Kaine won, also tends to see a steep “dropoff” of Democratic voters in odd-year elections, and also if the incumbent is leaving to run statewide – as with Delegates Hala Ayala, Elizabeth Guzman, and quite possibly Lee Carter. In the cases of Delegates Rodney Willett and Dan Helmer, I mostly wanted to be conservative, given that they were both just elected – and by very narrow margins – in 2019…but they could easily move up to Likely Dem in future updates. As for Del. Wendy Gooditis, the main issue there is that she only got 52.3% of the vote in 2019, but again, I could see moving this one up a notch, after looking at the quality of her Republican opponent, fundraising #s, etc. Finally, Republican Delegates Wilt and Coyner are in districts narrowly won by Tim Kaine in 2018, but both were reelected in 2019 with 54%-55% of the vote. Last but not least, I admit to being somewhat puzzled about how to rank Democratic Del. Roslyn Tyler, given that she’s in a district Kaine won by 13 points, yet she barely held on in 2019, with just 50.98% of the vote.  For now, I’m putting her in “Leans Democratic,” but I could see that changing…)

• HD51 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 59%-Corey Stewart 39%): Likely Democratic; incumbent Del. Hala Ayala (D), reelected with 54.58% of the vote in 2019; Ayala running for Lt. Governor (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Briana Sewell has announced for this seat)
• HD31 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 59%-Corey Stewart 39%): Likely Democratic; incumbent Del. Elizabeth Guzman (D), reelected with 52.63% of the vote in 2019; Guzman running for Lt. Governor. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrats Idris O’Connor, Kara Pitek and Katelyn Page have announced for this seat)
• HD50 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 62%-Corey Stewart 35%): Leans Democratic; incumbent Del. Lee Carter (D), reelected with 53.26% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Republican Mike Allers, Jr. is listed by VPAP as running for this seat; also, Carter is a possible gubernatorial candidate, which would mean this would be an open seat in 2021)
• HD73 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 59%-Corey Stewart 39%): Leans Democratic; Del. Rodney Willett (D), first elected in 2019 with 52.20% of the vote.
• HD40 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 59%-Corey Stewart 40%): Leans Democratic; incumbent Del. Dan Helmer (D), first elected in 2019 with 52.34% of the vote. (Note: as of 12/28, Republican Dutch Hillenburg is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD10 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 57%-Corey Stewart 41%): Leans Democratic; incumbent Del. Wendy Gooditis (D), reelected with 52.31% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Republican Nick Clemente is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD75 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 56%-Corey Stewart 43%): Leans Democratic; incumbent Del.  Roslyn Tyler (D), reelected with 50.98% of the vote in 2019 after not having a general election opponent in 2015 and 2017. (Note: as of 12/28, Republicans Kimberly Nadine Lowe and Otto Wachsmann have announced for this seat)
• HD26 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 50%-Corey Stewart 47%): Tossup; incumbent Del. Tony Wilt (R), reelected with 53.99% of the vote in 2019.
• HD62 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 52%-Corey Stewart 46%): Tossup; Del. Carrie Coyner (R), first elected with 55.10% of the vote in 2019.

SLIGHTLY LEANS REPUBLICAN (Kaine won this district by 10 points and Bloxom only got 51.89% of the vote in 2019, so basically Dems need a strong candidate and preferably some “coattails” from the top of the ticket.)

• HD100 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 54%-Corey Stewart 44%): Tossup; incumbent Del. Rob Bloxom (R), reelected with 51.89% of the vote in 2019.

SLIGHTLY LEANS DEMOCRATIC (Even though Tim Kaine easily won all three districts in 2018, I’m starting them out as highly competitive, with first-term Democratic delegates – Nancy Guy, Joshua Cole, Alex Askew – who received just 49.97%, 51.82% and 51.64% of the vote, respectively, in 2019. Hopefully they’ll move to “Leans Democratic” in future updates)

• HD83 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 57%-Corey Stewart 40%): Slightly Leans Democratic; Del. Nancy Guy (D), first elected in 2019 with 49.97% of the vote. (Note: As of 12/28, Republican Tim Anderson is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)
• HD28 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 55%-Corey Stewart 43%): Slightly Leans Democratic; incumbent Del. Joshua Cole (D), elected with 51.82% of the vote in 2019.
• HD85 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 57%-Corey Stewart 41%): Slightly Leans Democratic; Del. Alex Askew (D), first elected in 2019 with 51.64% of the vote. (Note: As of 12/28, Republican Karen Greenhalgh is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)

TOSSUP (I rated these three districts as “Tossup” because all three were won by Tim Kaine – by 8 points, 14 points and 10 points, respectively – yet all three are currently held by Republicans. Also contributing to the “Tossup” ratings for HD84 and HD66 is that both Del. Glenn Davis and Del. Kirk Cox are running statewide, which means these could be open seats in 2021. Also, Davis and Cox each got under 52% of the vote in 2019. As for Del. Roxanne Robinson, she barely held on in 2019, with just 50.25% of the vote, in a district Kaine won by 10 points, so…watch out!)

• HD84 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 54%-Corey Stewart 44%): Tossup; incumbent Del. Glenn Davis (R), reelected with 51.16% of the vote in 2019; Davis running for Lt. Governor.
• HD66 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 56%-Corey Stewart 42%): Tossup; incumbent Del. Kirk Cox (R), reelected with 51.67% of the vote in 2019; Cox is running for governor. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrats Katie Sponsler and Sheila Bynum-Coleman have announced for this seat, as has Republican Mike Cherry)
• HD27 (2018 U.S. Senate results: Tim Kaine 54%-Corey Stewart 44%): Tossup; incumbent Del. Roxanne Robinson (R), reelected with 50.25% of the vote in 2019. (Note: as of 12/28, Democrat Debra Gardner is listed by VPAP as running for this seat)