Today is primary election day in Virginia; polls are open from 6 am to 7 pm, and you can vote at your regular polling location. Obviously, the three statewide Democratic primary contests – for governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General – are getting a lot of attention, but there are also primaries for a bunch of House of Delegates seats and for some local offices (e.g., Alexandria Mayor and City Council, Arlington County Board) as well. For some predictions by Virginia political analysts, see here. The races I’ll be watching most closely today include:
- Governor: Will Terry McAuliffe win easily, as the polling and prediction markets indicate? Will he get a majority of the vote? In what order will the others – State Sen. Jennifer McClellan, former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, LG Justin Fairfax, Del. Lee Carter – finish, and will any candidate pull away from the rest of the field at all?
- Lt. Governor: It seems like it’s coming down to either Del. Sam Rasoul or Del. Hala Ayala, but with around half of Democratic voters undecided as of just a few days ago, it seems like other candidates – Norfolk City Councilwoman Andria McClellan? Del. Mark Levine? Sean Perryman? – might have a shot as well.
- Attorney General: The polling and prediction markets expect AG Mark Herring to win this one easily over challenger, Del. Jay Jones. So…what kind of margin are we talking about here? For reference, the Roanoke College poll had Herring up 50%-20%, with 30% undecided.
- HD2: The race between Del. Candi King and challenger Pamela Montgomery has been highly contentious, and also with a ton of money put in by anti-Dominion-Energy forces Clean Virginia/Sonja Smith and their allies (for Pamela Montgomery); and by the Virginia House Democratic Caucus, Virginia Legislative Black Caucus, etc. (for Del. King). So a lot of people, myself included, will be closely watching this one!
- HD9: Hard-core Trumpist (and Big Lie propagator) Wren Williams (R) is taking on conservative Republican Del. Charles Poindexter. If Williams wins, it’s another disturbing sign of how unhinged the GOP(Q) has gotten these days…
- HD31: Del. Elizabeth Guzman (D) is being primaried by several Democrats, including her main Democratic rival, Rod Hall. It will be interesting to see how close Hall comes to beating Guzman…
- HD34: The “conventional wisdom” is that Del. Kathleen Murphy will defeat her Democratic challenger, Jennifer Adeli, possibly by a wide margin. We’ll see if that happens…
- HD38: The “conventional wisdom” is that Del. Kaye Kory is likely to hold her seat against Democratic challenger Holly Hazard. Is it possible we could see an upset here, or will the “conventional wisdom” prove accurate?
- HD45: The primary between Del. Mark Levine and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Bennett-Parker is, by all accounts, likely to be very close, with Bennett-Parker a definitely possibility to defeat Del. Levine. Stay tuned…
- HD50: Could Del. Lee Carter lose to his main Democratic challenger, Michelle Maldonado? Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett thinks it’s a “toss-up,” so…we’ll see soon enough!
- HD68: Democratic challenger Kyle Elliott is taking on Del. Dawn Adams (D), and it’s possible either could win. Could be a nail biter?
- HD79: Another big one in the “proxy war” between Dominion Energy on the one hand and Michael Bills/Sonja Smith/Clean VA/etc. on the other – progressive challenger Nadarius Clark taking on relatively conservative Democratic Del. Steve Heretick. I’d say this one is a tossup – wouldn’t surprise me either way.
- HD83: This is an important Republican primary in a competitive district, probably leaning towards Chris Stolle over Tim Anderson. We’ll see…
- HD84: This could be a close one between Tracie Liguid and Kim Melnyk, in a district that’s could be competitive this November. Keep an eye on it.
- HD86: Another close one, this time between Del. Ibraheem Samirah and Democratic challenger Irene Shin. I’d go with “toss-up” for this one.
- The Alexandria Mayoral race, which is a rematch between Mayor Justin Wilson and former Mayor Allison Silberberg. I’m thinking Wilson wins fairly handily…we’ll see.
- The Alexandria City Council race – 13 candidates, who you can virtually “meet” here, for six slots. I’m assuming the three incumbents – John Taylor Chapman, Canek Aguirre, Amy Jackson – all win, plus three out of the other 10 candidates (Alyia Gaskins, R. Kirk McPike, Sarah R. Bagley, James C. Lewis, Jr., Meronne E. Teklu, William “Bill” Rossello, Kevin Harris, William E. “Bill” Campbell, Mark Leo Shiffer, Patrick B. Moran).
- The Arlington County Board race between Board member Takis Karantonis and Democratic challenger Chanda Choun. I’m thinking Karantonis wins this by a comfortable margin.
With that…what are you seeing and hearing out there? What’s turnout like in your neck of the woods? Who did you vote for and why? Feel free to add your observations in the comments section.