UPDATE 9:28 pm – OK, this is really bad news: ” PROJECTION- Otto Wachsmann HD75 will defeat Delegate Roslyn Tyler – GOP pick-up. Also, from Dave Wasserman: “It looks like Del. Wendy Gooditis (D) will barely hang on to win reelection 51%-49% in closely contested #HD10. Results bleaker for Dems in other House of Delegates races…”
UPDATE 9:19 pm – Two pieces of good news, from Ben Tribbett: “Delegate Dan Helmer HD40 will be re-elected” and “Delegate Karrie Delaney HD67 will be re-elected.” As Chaz Nuttycombe points out, “Control of the House of Delegates is still up in the air. A Dem House / R statewide sweep is possible. Likelihood is hard to determine as we are running into a brickwall of results when looking at the races”
UPDATE 8:47 pm – This is good news, at least (from Ben Tribbett): “8:45 P.M. PROJECTION- Michelle Maldonado HD50 will be elected as a new Democratic member”
UPDATE 8:35 pm – Hard to argue with Ryan Matsumoto on this: “There’s no way to spin this for Democrats – this is a very very bad result for them. Virginia has swung 10-15 points to the right since last November. That type of swing would be devastating for them in the House and Senate in 2022.” And if that happens, kiss our democracy goodbye.
UPDATE 8:31 pm – More calls from Ben Tribbett and Chaz Nuttycombe include: “Jason Ballard HD12 will beat Delegate Chris Hurst – GOP pick-up” (Ben); “Republican Glenn Davis has won re-election to HD-84” (Chaz); “Republican Rob Bloxom has won re-election to HD-100 on the Eastern Shore.” (Chaz); “Republican Jason Ballard has defeated Democrat Chris Hurst [I] in HD-12. The second flip of the night to the Republicans” (Chaz)…
UPDATE 8:30 pm – Also from Greg Sargent, along the lines of what I keep repeating ad nauseum: “Whoever wins today, Dems will have to reckon with this: They are facing a lopsided communications imbalance, one that enabled Youngkin and his allies to employ a massive propaganda apparatus to pump right wing sewage at the GOP base for months.”
UPDATE 8:29 pm – Greg Sargent of the WaPo tweets, “Hard to accept, but Youngkin’s approach of rolling up huge margins in the red counties with a carefully targeted subterranean communications strategy, combined with running on a cheerfully packaged center right platform to shave down suburban margins, appears to be working.” Except there was nothing “center right” about Youngkin’s platform; it was hard right all the way if you actually spent a few minutes and looked at what Youngkin stands for. The next four years are going to suck in Virginia. Worse than that is what all this says about America. Nothing good whatsoever.
UPDATE 8:27 pm – Just a formality at this point, but Dave Wasserman called the governor’s race for Youngkin. What a disaster.
UPDATE 8:19 pm – Ben Tribbett has called the governor’s race for Glenn Youngkin and the LG race for Winsome Sears. Just a complete fiasco at this point. Bottom line – This is what happens when Dems cede huge swaths of the media and the narrative to Rs. Some of us (raises hand!) have been warning about this for years, but of course we weren’t listened to. Because…no good reason whatsoever, just arrogance, idiocy, etc. Also, some of us (raises hand) warned Dems repeatedly that you can’t let Rs get a running start, head of steam, etc. with their lies, that you need to AGGRESSIVELY fight back. But…again, nothing. Infuriating.
UPDATE 8:17 pm – According to G. Elliott Morris, “The model is stabilizing around Youngkin +3 with 32% of the vote in. Things are close enough and there are enough votes left in Fairfax where McAuliffe could win, but the model sees a pretty likely (70%) R win in Virginia tonight. And a swing to Rs of at least 10 pts either way.” And Nate Cohn says, “Update at over 1300 precincts: Youngkin continues to be on track, running ahead of what he needs–even if only modestly–by just about any measure. He’s a very big favorite at this point; needle might be getting into that 90% range if it was on the internet.”
UPDATE 8:16 pm – According to Ben Tribbett, “8:14 PROJECTION: JASON MIYARES HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT MARK HERRING AND HAS BEEN ELECTED ATTORNEY GENERAL.” Horrendously bad news.
UPDATE 8:14 pm – According to Brent Peabody, “Virginia is at 42% reporting. But in several Democratic strongholds, that number’s a lot lower. Charlottesville: 9% Alexandria: 15% Arlington: 19 Richmond: 0% (!) This race is going to tighten, too soon right now to call.”
UPDATE 8:08 pm – According to Dave Wasserman, “Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I’d have expected among in-person early voters. He’s in the driver’s seat right now.”
UPDATE 8:05 pm – With 1,136 out of 2,855 precincts reporting, it’s now Youngkin 608,574-McAuliffe 451,192; Sears 603,073-Ayala 454,620; Miyares 593,896-Herring 459,726.
UPDATE 7:59 pm – According to Nate Cohn of the NY Times, “Now at 888 precincts: picture unchanged. Youngkin still ever so slightly running ahead of his targets, including nearly everywhere in the state. If the needle was on the internet, it would be pointing his way”
UPDATE 7:57 pm – According to Ben Tribbett, “7:55 P.M. PROJECTION- Dave LaRock HD33 will be re-elected.” Note that this is a “red” district and the only way Dems would have won this one is if they were having a “blue wave” kinda night. But that’s not going to be the case tonight.
UPDATE 7:54 pm – With 888 precincts of 2855 reporting, it’s now Youngkin 457,620-McAuliffe 321,315; Sears 454,838-Ayala 323,906; Miyares 450,329-Herring 327,751. Lots of “red” areas reporting, still huge “blue” areas not in…
UPDATE 7:49 pm – This is REALLY bad news; according to Ben Tribbett, “7:46 P.M. PROJECTION- First Republican pick up of the night – Tim Anderson [HD83] will beat Delegate Nancy Guy”
UPDATE 7:46 pm – With 647 precincts of 2855 reporting statewide, it’s now Youngkin 319,471-McAuliffe 225,939; Sears 315,685-Ayala 228,363; Miyares 312,331-Herring 231,196.
UPDATE 7:43 pm – In Chesterfield County, with 61/81 precincts reporting, it’s now Youngkin 34,861-McAuliffe 28,510; Sears 34,764-Ayala 28,948; Miyares 34,729-Hering 29,012.
UPDATE 7:39 pm – Per Nate Cohn of the NY Times, “350 precincts counted, and Youngkin is still running slightly ahead of our projections for a tie And he’s doing it in nearly every category we’re breaking down. The good news for Democrats: most of the vote reporting so far is election day, rural. So they’ll gain from here. Still opportunities to run ahead from here. That said, the needle would be tilting to the right if it were on the internet.”
UPDATE 7:37 pm – Per Dave Wasserman, “Breaking in Loudoun Co.: 71k votes reported and McAuliffe wins the batch 55%-45%. @vpapupdates is reporting those are *Election Day* votes, not EV/VBM. If that’s true, it would be a good result for McAuliffe”
UPDATE 7:35 pm – In Fairfax County, with early/by-mail votes counted, Terry McAuliffe leads 98,657-34,410; Hala Ayala leads 98,335 -34,477; Mark Herring leads 98,698-34,195.
UPDATE 7:31 pm – With 71,216 votes counted in Loudoun County, Terry McAuliffe leads 38,855-31,929; Hala Ayala leads 38,847-31,919; Mark Herring leads 39,258-31,543. Hard to tell what it means, exactly, without knowing exactly where this vote is coming from…
UPDATE 7:24 pm – With 111 precincts of 2855 precincts reporting, it’s Glenn Youngkin 52,445- Terry McAuliffe 50,802. Hala Ayala leads Winsome Sears 51,995-51,877 and Mark Herring leads Jason Miyares 52,888-52,487. Dave Wasserman tweets, “McAuliffe wins the Arlington early/absentee vote 82%-18%. That 64 pt. margin will come down as Election Day votes come in, but McAuliffe needs a ~52 pt. margin there to win statewide.”
UPDATE 7:16 pm – In Chesterfield County, a “purple” county (almost a tie in 2017 between Ralph Northam and Ed Gillespie) which was “red” for years but has been shifting politically, Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe are basically tied, with 22 or 81 precincts reporting. Also, Hala Ayala and Winsome Sears, Mark Herring and Jason Miyares basically tied.
UPDATE 7:13 pm – Dave Wasserman tweets, “We’re expecting to get Fairfax absentee/early vote numbers quickly after 7pm tonight (unlike in the past). If Youngkin gets over 30% of that vote, that’d be a great sign for him (but I’d still expect it to be sub-30%).”
The main races I’ll be focusing on, other than the statewides (Governor, LG, AG), are the following competitive House of Delegates races: House of Delegates races in HD10 (Del. Wendy Gooditis vs. Republican Nick Clemente), HD12 (Del. Chris Hurst vs. Republican Jason Ballard), HD27 (Debra Gardner vs. incumbent Republican Del. Roxann Robinson), HD28 (Del. Joshua Cole vs. Republican Tara Durant), HD40 (Del. Dan Helmer vs. Republican Harold Pyon), HD66 (Katie Sponsler in an open seat, being vacated by former Speaker Kirk Cox, vs. Republican Mike Cherry), HD68 (Del. Dawn Adams vs. Republican Mark Earley, Jr.), HD73 (Del. Rodney Willett vs. Republican Mary Margaret Kastelberg), HD75 (Del. Roslyn Tyler vs. Republican Otto Wachsmann), HD83 (Del. Nancy Guy vs. far-right Republican Tim Anderson), HD84 (Kim Melnyk vs. Republican Del. Glenn Davis), HD85 (Del. Alex Askew vs. Republican, HD100 (Finale Norton vs. Republican Del. Rob Bloxom)…also HD13 (Del. Danica Roem in a 57% Northam district in Prince William County/Manassas Park City), Paul Siker against far-right Republican Del. Dave LaRock in HD33 (a 45% Northam district in Loudoun/Frederick/Clarke counties), HD50 (Michelle Maldonado in a 58% Northam district in Prince William County/Manassas), HD51 (Briana Sewell in a 55% Northam district in Prince William County), HD63 (Del. Lashrecse Aird in a 56% Northam district in Petersburg City, Dinwiddie County and Chesterfield County), HD72 (Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg in a 54% Northam district in Henrico County), etc.
I’d say a good night for Democrats would be sweeping all three statewide races (we’d better not lose any of them), plus losing no more than 1 or 2 House of Delegates seats. A very good night for Democrats would be sweeping the three statewides plus not losing any House of Delegates seats. An excellent night would get us to a pickup of 1 or 2 House of Delegates seats.
Finally, here are a few numbers to keep in mind as results start coming in tonight:
1) Statewide turnout in 2017 was 2,612,309, and in 2020 was 4,486,821. So far, we’ve seen nearly 1.2 million early votes cast in this election, with the potential for turnout to exceed 2017 levels. We’ll see. Also, it will be interesting to see WHERE election day turnout is strong. For instance, if turnout is heavy in “Trumpy” areas in SW Virginia, etc., that’s not a good sign for Democrats. Also, Democrats need strong election day turnout in deep-blue areas in the Richmond area, Hampton Roads and NoVA. So…keep an eye on all that.
2) The latest polling heading into election day can be seen here: McAuliffe having led narrowly in most recent, high-quality polls, except for a Fox “News” poll, which swung dramatically from its previous poll a couple weeks earlier (from a 5-point “likely voter” lead for McAuliffe to a big “likely voter” lead for Youngkin…for no apparent reason).
Also, check out this “model of the vote” by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report – very helpful.
And also very helpful by Ryan Brune…
Finally, check this out by Sam Shirazi, who has done excellent work the past couple weeks keeping close track of the early voting numbers here in Virginia, and explaining what they all might mean…
Thanks appreciate kind words
1. Does significant suburban swing happen?
2. Do African-Americans vote more on Election Day as compared to their early vote turnout?
3. Do Trumpy voters in SW show up or does Youngkin focus on suburbs not bring them out? https://t.co/GZ57P6sSzz
— Sam Shirazi (@samshirazim) October 31, 2021