A new Virginia poll is out, and it’s mainly very good news for Democrats. Why? Three main reasons:
- Democrats are up 1 point over Republicans in the “generic” General Assembly ballot question.
- That 1-point edge might not seem like much, except for one huge thing, namely that this polling outfit (“co/efficient”) is a Republican outfit, that in 2022 (see below and also at FiveThirtyEight), didn’t just overestimate Republican candidates but WILDLY overestimated Republican candidates, blew key races, etc. Just a few examples include: they had Dr. Oz winning Pennsylvania 3 points, but he actually lost by 4.9 points; they had the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire tied, but Democrat Maggie Hassan actually won by 9.1 points; they had Kari Lake winning the Arizona governor’s race by 3.3 points, but she actually lost by 0.7 points; they had Herschel Walker winning the U.S. Senate race in Georgia by 3.4 points, but he actually lost by 1.0 points; etc. Oh, also, in 2021 they overestimated Glenn Youngkin by 2.1 points. So if Democrats lead by 1 point in THIS outfit’s poll, you can almost certainly add a few points to that for the “blue” team.
- Abortion is one of the top-two issues (behind inflation, which by the way is now at just over 3%…very low) AND only 21% of Virginia voters agree with the position held by most Republican General Assembly candidates, which is that they’d love to ban it completely.
With that, see below for some screenshots (click to enlarge) from this Republican poll (carried out for Parker Slaybaugh, former Chief Deputy Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry for Gov. Glenn Youngkin…so again, obviously this is a Republican poll through and through.
P.S. Also, see below for screenshots (click to enlarge) of a spreadshot I made re: how many seats Democrats could win for State Senate and House of Delegates this November, assuming different “generic” environments for the electorate.