Very nice thread by Speedster Max on the upcoming 2025 Virginia House of Delegates elections, specifically the seats that are competitive – or possibly could be competitive. Compare/contrast to the “VPAP Index,” which rates 10/100 House of Delegates seats as competitive (HD86, HD22, HD89, HD71, HD75, HD82, HD21, HD97, HD65, HD57) – plus 9 “Leans Democratic” (HD84, HD94, HD58, HD96, HD20, HD29, HD70, HD95, HD55) and 14 “Leans Republican” (HD74, HD40, HD49, HD34, HD52, HD99, HD83, HD100, HD41, HD64, HD66, HD30, HD73, HD69). Now, here are Speedster Max’s ratings:
- Likely D: 58 84 94 95 96
- Lean D: 57 (flip) 65
- Tossups: 21 22 41 71 82 97
- Lean R: 30 75 89
- Likely R: 34 64 66 69 73 83 86 99 100
As you can see, there’s a decent amount of agreement with the VPAP ratings, although there are differences (in part due to whether or not there’s a strong incumbent) in terms of which districts actually will end up being competitive. For instance, while VPAP has HD75 as competitive, Speedster Max has it as “Lean R,” presumably in large part because it has a strong incumbent, Del. Carrie Coyner. Also, VPAP has HD57 as competitive, But Speedster Max has it as “Lean D,” presumably given that Del. David Owens is NOT a strong Republican incumbent, and given that Owens only won in 2023 because the Democratic nominee (Susanna Gibson) had “filmed consensual explicit videos” (note: Gibson says she’s “been quite clear that I was filmed without my knowledge and consent and put up on pirate websites without my knowledge and consent.”) This time around, with a potentially strong Democratic nominee, and with a possible “blue wave” election, Owens looks like he’s in serious trouble.
One significant difference between VPAP and Speedster Max’s ratings is HD86 (incumbent Republican Del. AC Cordoza), which VPAP rates as competitive, but which Speedster Max has at “Likely R.” I’d say that district is potentially winnable for Democrats, given that Kamala Harris narrowly won it, and given that VPAP only has the seat as +4.0R. We’ll see if Democrats field a strong candidate or not.
There are several other seats to keep an eye on. For instance, we’ll see if Democrats have a strong candidate in HD89, a Chesapeake/Suffolk seat that VPAP rates at +2.3R. Another interesting seat to watch could be HD30, held by freshman Del. Geary Higgns, a far-right Republican, in the northern Virginia suburbs/exurbs – so definitely vulnerable if there’s a “blue wave,” if federal workers are really pissed off, etc. And Democrats have an excellent shot at HD82 (which Speedster Max rates, correctly, as a “Tossup”), with Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams taking on incumbent/freshman Del. Kim Taylor for a rematch from 2023’s extremely close election. Finally, HD41 is +8.1R according to VPAP, but potentially winnable for Democrats, with incumbent Del. Chris Obenshain (R) facing a rematch with Democrat Lily Franklin, who lose by an extremely narrow margin in 2023 (so if it’s a “blue wave” at all this November, Obenshain could be in trouble).
Which districts are you keeping an eye on?
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