Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Elections 2024

Here are a few Virginia “winners” and “losers” from Tuesday’s election that I believe are worth highlighting. Note that this list isn’t even *close* to comprehensive – nor is it intended to be – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section if you’d like. By the way, it’s important to point out that you can be a “winner” even if you’re a right-wing Republican (e.g., McDonnell and Cuccinelli in 2009 – or Youngkin in 2021 – were “winners,” even though they totally suck!) or whatever, and that you can be a “loser” even if you’re the greatest (or my favorite) Democrat in the world, because in this context “winner” and “loser” is all about whether someone “won” or “lost” politically in this election cycle, not whether that makes me happy or not or whether it’s normatively a “good” or “bad” thing, per se. Also, the lists aren’t in exact order, although I tended to put the ones that I thought were more significant towards the top of the lists.

Oh, one more thing – I’ve always asked people for their opinions, so some of the following aren’t originally by me, but I’ve chosen to include them because I thought they were interesting, because I agreed with them in full or part, etc. Still, you’re welcome to blame me if you don’t like them. LOL

P.S. I’m obviously not going to include everyone who won or lost an election in these lists, but only ones that jump out at me for whatever reason(s).

Winners

1. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07): She helped her successor in VA07, Eugene Vindman, win his race, so that right there makes her a “winner.” But also, given the historical pattern (in which Virginia tends to go HARD the following year AGAINST the party that just won the White House, in this case the Republicans), Spanberger could benefit in that regard in her run for governor next year. However, as discussed below, will these historical patterns even hold anymore, given what an aberration from American history Trump is, not to mention his threats against democracy itself and the possibility that Democratic voters could be exhausted, demoralized, etc? We’ll see, but for now, Spanberger seems like a “winner,” politically speaking.

2. Sen. Tim Kaine: Defeated Hung Cao convincingly (by over 8 points, as of now – a lead that could grow further as mail ballots continue to come in) on Tuesday – despite some national headwinds. Of course, Cao was an incredibly extreme, flawed candidate, but still – nice job by Kaine, congratulations in order!

3. Congressman-elect Eugene Vindman: Running in a tough, “purple,” highly competitive district (VA07), Vindman won the Democratic primary last June by a huge margin, then defeated a well-funded Republican opponent (Derrick Anderson) by just over two percentage points. For comparison purposes, Rep. Abigail Spanberger won reelection in 2022 by five points against a bizarre, extreme opponent who claimed – 100% falsely – that women are less likely to get pregnant when they’re raped. Also, I’m told that in the closing weeks, Vindman shook up his campaign and really turned things around.  So that’s good, because we REALLY needed to win this district!

4. Congressman-elect Suhas Subramanyam: Didn’t win by a wide margin in the end (four points) – after narrowly winning the Democratic primary last June – in a district that’s rated D+6 by the Cook Political Report, but still got the job done and will be heading to the US House. Congratulations!

5. Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-VA11) and Don Beyer (D-VA08): I’m told by a source in the campaign that they were both amazing partners to the Coordinated Campaign – as was Sen. Tim Kaine, who was on the ballot himself, of course. Thanks!

6. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01): The guy is really bad substantively (votes hard right but deceptively acts like a “moderate”), doesn’t seem to have any/much charisma, but seems to win easily (in this case by 13 points) every election cycle, even as VA01 supposedly trends in a “blue” direction. For comparison purposes, Wittman won by 14.5 points in 2022, by 16+ points in 2020, and by 10+ points in 2018. So he doesn’t seem to be losing ground, unfortunately.

7. VA05 Congressman-elect John McGuire (R): Talk about “failing up!” Seriously, this guy’s been awful in the General Assembly – introducing extreme bills and getting almost none of them passed – and also has been really bad in general, including his presence outside the US Capitol on 1/6/21, his general lack of any substance, etc. And yet he first defeated the incumbent Congressman in VA05, Bob Good, in a Republican primary last June, then won the general election (over Democrat Gloria Witt, who didn’t have almost any money) by 15 points. He’ll be a HORRIBLE member of Congress, but he’s a “winner” because he won, despite being absolutely awful.

8. Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09): He’s in one of the reddest districts in America, so the only thing he really has to worry about is a potential Republican primary opponent. Other than that, he’s just going to keep winning reelection, as he did in this case, by a massive 73%-27% margin over Democrat Karen Baker. Sigh…

9. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02): A very weak Congresswoman – a MASSIVE downgrade from her predecessor, Democrat Elaine Luria, who was superb – and yet she won reelection in this “purple”/competitive seat by a 4-point margin this time around. So that makes her a “winner,” even though she’s a terrible representative for the district, and even though she RICHLY deserved to lose.

10. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03), Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04), Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08), Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA11): All are in safe blue districts, but still, they all won easily so are on the “winners” list. Congratulations on your reelections!

11. VA House Speaker Don Scott and VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell: Again, just based on the historical pattern noted above, you’d think that Virginia Democrats should do well the next four years in Virginia. That SHOULD bode well for Speaker Scott increasing his House of Delegates majority in the 2025 elections, and for State Senate Majority Leader Surovell increasing HIS majority in the 2027 elections. Of course, that does assume that historical patterns have not been made completely or mostly irrelevant at this point, for a bunch of reasons.

12. Richmond Mayor-elect Danny Avula: Didn’t just win the Richmond mayor’s race, but did so convincingly, with 46% of the vote in a 5-person field, and without having to go to a runoff. Impressive!

13. Poll workers/election officials: They’re winners because they make election day work, mostly smoothly, and also because – for the most part – they care about our country, sometimes put themselves at risk these days, and are generally heroes for doing what they do.

Mixed

1. Gov. Glenn Youngkin: On the “loser” side, Youngkin yet AGAIN saw several of his candidates – Trump, Cao, Anderson, Clancy – lose in Virginia, just as many of the candidates Youngkin campaigned for in 2022 (e.g., Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, Paul LePage, Yesli Vega, Hung Cao) lost, and just as Youngkin lost in 2023 with his attempt to win a governing “trifecta” (the Virginia State Senate stayed in Democratic hands, while the House of Delegates flipped to Democratic control) – and now saw Kamala Harris winning Virginia by 5 points over Donald Trump (and Tim Kaine easily defeating Hung Cao plus Eugene Vindman beating Derrick Anderson). On the “winner” side, Youngkin DID go with Trump – as sick, warped and amoral as that is – and Trump DID win the election nationalyl, so that makes Youngkin a “winner” in that regard. Also note that Youngkin could very well end up in Trump’s cabinet, perhaps as Secretary of Commerce or something. In sum, a mixed bag for Youngkin from this election.

2. AG Jason Miyares: On the one hand, Trump was elected, which traditionally means that Democrats SHOULD do very well in the 2025 elections (caution: who knows if that trend will hold this time around, as Trump is really a unique case, with grave threats to democracy and also with Democrats potentially VERY demoralized, so that they don’t turn out in droves as they did in 2017, 2018, etc? we’ll see!), when Miyares presumably will be running either for reelection or for governor. On the other hand, I’m hearing that Miyares might just end up going into the Trump administration’s Justice Department (or should we call it the INJUSTICE Department, starting on 1/20/25?), so that would be a “win” for Miyares I guess.

3. LG Winsome Sears: On the plus side for Sears, if Youngkin heads into the Trump administration, she’d become governor, and could run for a full term as the sitting/incumbent governor. On the negative side, traditionally – as noted above in the Miyares entry – Virginia tends to go hard opposite of whatever party just took over the White House the year before. And in this case, that’s Trump and the Republican Party. So traditionally, that would imply a major leg up for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this case Abigail Spanberger. But again, can we even apply historical patterns to the bizarre, unprecedented situation we’re now facing??? I’m skeptical of that, and would really encourage everyone not to just knee-jerk, mindlessly assume that history will apply next year.

4. VA01 Democratic nominee Leslie Mehta: On the down side, Mehta lost by 13 points to Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01), despite chatter among political analysts prior to the election that Mehta might be able to “only” lose by high single digits, given that VA01 is (supposedly) trending blue over time. On the up side, I’m told that Mehta campaigned hard, was impressive and “has a bright future.” But as for VA01, it’s not looking promising as long as Wittman is entrenched there…

5. Former Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-VA10) and Denver Riggleman (R-VA05): On the plus side, they did the right thing this cycle, supporting the pro-democracy candidate (Kamala Harris) and helping Democrats get some good media coverage. On the down side, the support of Comstock and Riggleman (and Liz Cheney, for that matter) doesn’t seem to have helped boost Harris among indepdendents or “moderate Republicans” (to the extent there are many of those) in the election. Oh well; at least Riggleman and Comstock didn’t throw in their lot with the felon/rapist/insurrectionist candidate (Trump)!

6. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe: Was largely invisible during this campaign (on the ground, anyway – he was on TV a bunch of times, including debunking the ridiculous Roanoke Times poll), but I’m told that was intentional, as he thought he’d be much more valuable raising money – and he raised like $10 million, apparently – than campaigning in Virginia for Harris-Walz. (note: former Gov. Ralph Northam was also mostly invisible publicly, but helped out behind the scenes)

7. Virginia GOP Chair Rich Anderson: On the one hand, Trump lost Virginia, and Hung Cao also lost, so Anderson’s top two priorities failed. On the other hand, Trump won the White House, which undoubtedly makes Anderson happy, and Jen Kiggans hung on in VA02. So overall, Anderson’s probably not too upset about the election results, even if they were a mixed bag from his perspective.

8. VA Dems Chair Susan Swecker: As with Rich Anderson and the VA GOP, Tuesday was a mixed bag for VA Democrats – Harris won Virginia, as did Kaine, but Harris LOST the election nationally, and Democrats are REALLY not happy with that – for good reason! Other than that, the Vindman win in VA07 was a positive outcome from Tuesday.

9. Virginia-based political prognosticators: All the reality-based ones knew that Harris and Kaine would win Virginia, while Trump-supporting political prognosticators kept falsely claiming that Virginia was “in play.” As for their national predictions, most of the non-Republican prognosticators had Harris winning the national election, which obviously she didn’t do. So…mixed bag there.

Losers

1. Virginia and America: In the end, we ALL lost badly – America’s democracy is in deep shit now; Trump’s administration is going to be relentlessly stupid, ignorant, cruel, dangerous, etc; forget about progress on the climate crisis; the economy will be severely harmed (not to mention that it would be unethical, immoral, etc.) if Trump follows through and deports millions of migrant workers (who raise/harvest our food, build our homes, take care of the elderly, etc, etc.); goes after his political enemies; trashes the rule of law; trashes public health; on and on we go. And yes, it’s horrifying – and mind boggling – that tens of millions of Americans actually CHOSE TO VOTE FOR THIS, of their own free will. Insanity.

2. Northern Virginia/federal employees/Metro: All of these could be SEVERELY harmed by Trump administration policies, if carried out, to basically trash/purge the career civil service, carry out their extreme Project 2025, including elimination of federal funding for WMATA, etc.. This could be a really, REALLY rough four years for Northern Virginia – which, in many ways, is the economnic engine for Virginia overall. Not good

3. Virginia’s economy: If the Trump administration really does trash the federal workforce, defund Metro, deport millions of migrant workers, slap on huge tariffs, etc, the economic impacts for the country and for Virginia will be horrific. So yeah, when Gov. Glenn Youngkin et al backed Trump/Project 2025, he essentially was putting Virginia’s future at serious risk. Thanks a lot, as*holes!

4. Virginia’s migrant workers: They do a LOT of jobs that most native-born Americans would never be willing to do – backbreaking work in the fiels, slaughterhouses, nursing homes, construction industry, etc, etc. If Trump really rounds them and deports them, that would be cruel, inhumane AND very damaging to the U.S. and Virginia economies. In sum, it would be horrible all around, and yet Trump is vowing to start with this on Day 1 of his administration. Horrible.

5. Virginia hospitals/healthcare: If Republicans really do end up repealing or gutting the Affordable Care Act, aka “Obamacare,” it will have devastating effects on tens of millions of Americans – those with preexisting conditions, for instance – as well as create turmoil in the hospitals/healthcare industry, including here in Virginia. Not good at all.

6. 2024 VA GOP U.S. Senate nominee Hung Cao: Ran a truly appalling campaign, one based on a torrent of lies and extremism, and deservedly got his butt kicked by Sen. Tim Kaine (by 8+ points). Hopefully, Cao will never run for office again, but if he does, hopefully he’ll keep losing. Of course, he could end up in the Trump administration, since he’s a great fit given the criteria – extreme, crazy, nasty, 100% loyalty to the cult leader – that Trump’s generally looking for.

7. VA02 Democratic nominee Missy Cotter Smasal: Other than losing the election (by 4 points) to the godawful Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02), I heard only bad things from Democratic insiders about Smasal’s campaign – that she supposedly “ran a horrible campaign,” “ostracized everyone,” “didn’t raise enough money,” you name it. So at this point, Smasal has run in two competitive races – for State Senate in 2019 and for US House in 2024 – and lost both times. Not that these were easy races to win, but at some point, if you’re a politician and you keep losing, you’re not going to have much of a political future.

8. Vote counting in Richmond, VA Beach, Henrico on election night : I’m told by a Democratic insider that vote counting on election night in those three jurisdictions was very slow – and that there really wasn’t any communication or good reason given for it.  Because of that, I’m told, AP held back on calling Virginia for Harris, given that Henrico and Richmond are both large, heavily Democratic jurisdictions. Needless to say, the Harris campaign wasn’t happy about that.

9. Soon-to-be FORMER Rep. Bob Good (R-VA05): Good f’ed up in so many ways, it’s hard to even know where to start. BUt in the end, he managed to pull off quite a feat – pissing off just about EVERYBODY and losing his safe-“red” seat in a primary to someone as crazy, extreme and far-right as he is (insurrectionist John McGuire). On a side note, it’s interesting how all those news articles about how, supposedly, turmoil within the VA05 GOP could hurt them in November did NOT end up hurting them in November, at all, as McGuire won by 15 points – while Good maybe tries to regain the seat in 2026, but almost certainly fails to do so, given that Trump supports McGuire, and in today’s Republican Party, that’s all that matters.

10. Any connection between Republican candidates’ rhetoric and facts, the truth, reality, science, moderation, etc.: Contary to some absurd “hot takes” in the media, none of the Republican US Senate or US House candidates this cycle were “moderate,” “reasonable” or whatever – all of them were Trumpists/far-right extremists. As such, if you listened to their campaign rhetoric on the stump, in debates/forums, etc., you heard a “Gish Gallop” of lies, distortions, falsehoods, lunacy, etc. That’s where today’s Republican Party is at, and it’s horrifying.

11. Rural Virginia: Voters in rural Virginia went overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, which means they voted STRONGLY against their own economic and other self interest. I mean, imagine if Trump really does trash Social Security and Medicare, as well as the Affordable Care Act? Who’s going to suffer the most from that? The very types of people, in places like rural Virginia, who rely heavily on those government programs. Plus, as noted elsewhere, Trump’s tariffs and other batsh**-crazy economic policies run the risk of reigniting inflation, increasing prices sharply for Americans, including rural Virginians. Brilliant.

12. The “mainstream media”: Another election cycle, another period of weak, thin, shallow, false equivalence, “both sides-ist,”  godawful “access journalism,” “concern trolling”  and/or nonexistent coverage of Virginia politics by the “mainstream media.” And when I refer to the “mainstream media,” I’m not even talking about blatantly the cesspool of social media and/or right-wing-propaganda media, like Sinclair (e.g., WJLA7 in northern Virginia), Fox “News,” far-right/MAGA talk radio, etc. – I’m talking about the WaPo (which infamously declined to endorse Kamala Harris after its owner, Jeff Bezos, ordered the editorial board not to print an already written endorsement). Also, sadly, local papers continue to decline, with many Virginia news outlets mere shells of their former selves (although there’s also been a rise in online publications such as Virginia Mercury, which have mostly been a positive force, but not really a replacement for high-quality daily local papers). BTW, I specifically had a Virginia Democratic insider call out the Cardinal’s editor for biased, anti-Democratic, pro-Republican messaging. If you’ve followed that guy over the years, you shouldn’t be surprised at that, of course.  Also, if you looked at the coverage of the elections from the Virginian-Pilot, Roanoke Times, Richmond Times-Dispatch, etc. leading up to election day, it was just very weak (many days, the front page of the digital/online version of those papers was like 80% sports and/or local festivals, etc. – nothing really about the stakes of the elections, let alone hard-hitting analysis or digging into Hung Cao, Jen Kiggans, Derrick Anderson, etc, etc.). Overall, pathetic job; our political media really has failed us in our moment of need, and now they’re going to be under assault by the Trump administration, which insanely considers them the “enemy of the people.”

13. Democratic nominee Ken Mitchell in VA06: I’m told that the Democratic nominee in VA06, Ken Mitchell, basically focused on bland “can’t-we-all-just-get-along,” “reach-across-the-aisle” messaging, as opposed to really going after his extremist Republican opponent as an extremist, and – not at all surprisingly – it didn’t work, at ALL, in deep-red VA06 (Rep. Ben Cline defeated Mitchell 63%-34% – basically identical to the margin two years ago, and two years before that, and…). I mean, if you’re going to run in a deep-red district against someone as extreme and horrible as Ben Cline, just rip the sh** out of the Republican, promote strong Democratic policies, and let the chips fall where they may, since you’re 100% guaranteed to lose anyway.

13. Candidates not named “Danny Avula” in the Richmond mayor’s race: As noted above, Avula got close to 50% in a race with four other candidates – Michelle Mosby (25.4%), Harrison Roday (13.0%), Andreas Addison (11.9%), Maurice Neblett (2.9%). That clearly reflects on the winning candidate and his campaign, but also on the losing candidates and their campaigns.