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The Trump Phenomenon: What Does It Mean, and What Will Be Its Effects?

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I do not believe that there has ever been anything in American history like what has happened in the political arena since Donald Trump’s announcement of his candidacy for president.

About this phenomenon, I’ve got questions more than answers. But maybe raising the questions will lead this community to find its way toward answers.

The first question looks back behind the phenomenon to find what in the contemporary condition of America makes this unprecedented phenomenon possible:



What does it mean that a man can speak and act like Donald Trump has been doing and come out leading the pack in polls of Republican voters?

I’ve got thoughts of a general kind — Trump’s rise fits in a general way with the picture I paint in my new book WHAT WE’RE UP AGAINST — but would be glad to see the picture in greater resolution.

I agree with John McCain about Trump “firing up the crazies.” And I agree with pundits who say that “the Republican Party is reaping what it has sown,” because the force that’s taken over the Republican Party (since, say, the rise of Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh) has specialized in fomenting craziness in a large swath of the American public that has tuned its attenna to the fear-mongering, hate-mongering, reality-detached signal on the right.

But that only begins to scratch the surface, and the question remains to be addressed.

Then the second question leads out from this remarkable phenomenon in search of how the political scenario for the nation will be affected by Trump’s rise to his present domination of political discourse and of the Republican field.

In what ways will the scenario of American politics play out differently up through the election of 2016 than it would have had Trump not jumped into the arena?

Where the future is concerned, a whole new set of uncertainties besets us. (Although the saying that “hindsight is 20/20” is clearly not true — think of how the South has characterized its reasons for fighting the Civil War — at least what happened already happened.) And with the Trump phenomenon, it surely matters whether he fades quickly like a Herman Cain or, as I expect, remains a factor for months to come. And foresight is surely not 20/20.

But Trump’s taking up all the attention-space may already be having important consequences.

On MSNBC last night, Steve Karnacki indicated that 1) Ohio governor John Kasich may be the Republican candidate with the best chance of winning the general election, 2) Kasich’s present standing in the polls would deny him a place in the first presidential debate in a couple of weeks, and 3) without being able to get attention, because of the Trump phenomenon, his candidacy might well be suffocated before he even gets well started.

There’s also the question of how Trump’s ugly pronouncements will affect the Republican brand.

He is at the same time different from and similar to the other candidates. As many have pointed out, the ideas, positions, impulses, attitudes, etc. that Trump puts out are at a fundamental level those of the Party as a whole. But he just presents it more blatantly. You might say, he uses a whistle the whole stadium can hear, rather than the dog whistle that most Republican politicians use.

So how will Trump’s run affect public perceptions.

1) Will people recoil from a Party that wears such a face for however long, with the support of a goodly chunk of its electorate? Or

2) Will Trump make the other candidates — and the eventual nominee — look more benign, by comparison, than would be the case without Trump?

It is a question, in other words, as to whether Trump’s impact will be to discredit the Party by exposing the ugly force that’s taken over the GOP or whether he will distract people from noticing the more subtle ways this ugliness is manifested in the Party as a whole.

I’m interested in hearing what people here think.

Virginia officials voice support for the Clean Power Plan

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Good stuff from the Virginia League of Conservation Voters, with the EPA “set to finalize limits on carbon pollution from existing power plants in the coming weeks.” It should go without saying that Virginia should be leading on this, not following, and certainly not dragging its feet or even obstructing.

60 elected officials urge Governor to protect against threats of climate change

Richmond, Va. – Today, 60 public officials from across the commonwealth sent a letter to Governor Terry McAuliffe voicing their support for the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan, which will place limits on carbon pollution from power plants, the largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions in the nation.

The EPA is set to finalize limits on carbon pollution from existing power plants in the coming weeks.

The state and local government leaders expressed their support of action to mitigate and adapt to climate disruption, citing that this challenge “threatens the stability and health of our communities and the ecosystems on which we depend.”

Officials outlined several primary concerns in the letter: “air quality, coastal flooding and related consequences for housing, infrastructure and population mobility, impacts on agriculture and forestry, food prices, and vector-borne diseases. They also noted that “impacts to human health and welfare, especially for children, the elderly, and other vulnerable populations, are of special concern.”

Delegate Alfonso Lopez, a leader of this effort representing Arlington and Fairfax Counties, is urging Gov. McAuliffe to keep moving forward.

“The Commonwealth needs a strong implementation plan to keep making progress in the fight to preserve our environment for future generations,” said Lopez, founder and chair of the Virginia Environment and Renewable Energy Caucus in the General Assembly. “We have a clear opportunity to limit the impacts of climate change, grow new industries, reduce pollution, and save consumers money here in Virginia.”

The Clean Power Plan also promises to improve public health. Virginia is home to nearly 700,000 asthmatics, and has been named the Asthma Capitol of the U.S. by the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America for several years running. The highest concentrations of asthma sufferers are in Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads.

“Climate change impacts everyone but, unfortunately the impacts can be greater in low-income communities where folks can’t afford to make changes,” said 16th District Senator Rosalyn Dance. “By addressing these issues promptly and thoroughly we can mitigate the impacts and ensure that all Virginians and their children and grandchildren can grow up in a safe and healthy environment.”

Delegate Betsy Carr, who represents Richmond’s 69th District, pointed to another benefit of the Clean Power Plan: economic growth.

“Investment in renewable energy is not only an important gain for the environment but it also grows the economy and creates jobs,” she said.

Hampton Roads has possibly the most to gain from swift action, as it is also at the greatest risk for sea level rise along the east coast – 1.5-foot increases are expected within the next 20-50 years.

“Every time it rains in Norfolk, our citizens and military installations are at risk,” said Norfolk City Councilwoman Theresa Whibley. “A strong Clean Power Plan will help curb sea level rise in the long-term by reducing the harmful greenhouse gases that threaten this coastal community.”

“Virginia Beach understands the close connection between climate change and clean energy. As a coastal community we are committed to pursuing a comprehensive approach to initiatives that will help us address climate change,” said Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms. “Seeking development of clean energy resources in and adjoining our community – such as wind, solar and geothermal options – coupled with our strong emphasis on energy conservation, is important to both our climate change and economic diversification goals.”

Peter Galuszka on the “Tale of Two Virginias” — Dominion and Its Allies vs. The Rest of Us

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For once, let me give Dominion “Global Warming Starts Here” Power a tiny bit of credit: despite essentially buying (“sponsoring”) a Virginia political blog, for whatever reason they still haven’t purged pro-clean-energy and environmentalist writer Peter Galuszka from the site. And until they do, it appears that Galuszka will continue to rain body blows on this horrible company. For instance, see Galuszka’s latest, Renewable Energy: A Tale of Two Virginias. A few key points:

*There’s one Virginia that includes the state’s “traditional political and business elite, including Dominion Resources and large manufacturers, the State Corporation Commission and others,” which “insist that the state must stick with big, base-loaded electricity generating plants like nuclear and natural gas – not so much solar and wind -to ensure that prices for business are kept low.”

*Then there’s the new, up-and-coming Virginia, with “the most successful and younger Web-based firms” looking instead to “use 100 per cent of their electricity from renewable sources,” investing their own money to build said renewable energy generating capacity, and in the meantime “bypassing traditional utilities like Dominion which have been sluggish in moving to wind and solar.”

*Thus, we have a case of a huge wind farm being built (by Amazon and Iberdrola) just a few miles outside of Virginia – in “red” North Carolina, which believe it or not has had much better policies when it comes to clean energy than “purple” Virginia does – and also a big solar farm (again, by Amazon – with no participation by Dominion, of course) in “Accomack County on the Eastern Shore.”

Meanwhile, Dominion continues with its head buried in the sand, clinging to a dying, antiquated, top-down, state-protected-monopoly model, even as clean energy costs plummet and even as distributed energy, storage, microgrids, and other innovative technologies (not to mention financing methods) take off. As I’ve written previously, the consquences to Dominion of not adapting the rapidly changing world could be the dreaded utility “death spiral,” but they don’t seem to care, counting on their bought-and-paid-for buddies in the Virginia General Assembly to protect them for a few more years.

How badly is Dominion Power harming Virginia’s economy, people and businesses?  It’s hard to quantify, but just imagine if Virginia could offer the hottest companies clean, cheap power – as well as flexibility as to how they produce and/or source that power –  in perpetuity, instead of the failed/failing “same ol’ same old?”  Keep in mind that Austin (Texas) Power recently was offered “solar power from developers at record low prices” (how does “less than $0.04 per kWh” sound?). Also see articles like Price of US Wind Power at ‘All-Time Low’ of 2.5 Cents per Kilowatt-Hour to see where we COULD be heading, if it weren’t for Dominion Power and its bought-and-paid-for puppets in the state legislature. For comparison purposes, according to EIA, Virginia’s average retail power price in 2013 was around 9 cents per kilowatt-hour, produced by Dominion’s power mix of mostly filthy coal, problematic nuclear (also extremely expensive to build new units) and (mostly fracked) natural gas plants. Brilliant, huh? Nope. So why the he** do we put up with this nonsense?

Video: Arlington Board Member Walter Tejada Rips John Vihstadt for Creating “Culture of Distrust”

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As Arlington County Board member and progressive champion Walter Tejada (D) winds ups his 12+ years of service on the Board, he’s not going quietly, that’s for sure. And thank goodness someone is speaking up, calling out the lies, disinformation, disingenuous and anti-government rabble rousing by Republican John Vihstadt and his allies over the past couple years. In this case, the discussion is whether Arlington County should have a new, independent auditor (see Patricia Sullivan’s Washington Post story for more on this; also, thanks to her for the “heads up” on this) “to oversee county spending.” Yesterday, the Board voted 4-1, with Walter Tejada strongly disapproving, to approve this $200,000-per-year  position. Here are Tejada’s key points, followed by Vihstadt’s (faux?) indignant response (which basically proves Tejada’s point, by the way), followed by Tejada…well, watch and see, it’s highly informative AND entertaining. 🙂

*Tejada noted that Arlington has received a “triple, AAA bond rating” “every single year he’s been in office,” and that’s not “because we’re nice people,” but for good reason (e.g., based on the bond rating agencies’ independent analyses of Arlington’s management, fiscal situation, etc.).

*Tejada says: “I don’t drink the Kool-Aid that has been put out in the community to allege a culture of distrust of government which – is well known by the Republican Party to question and to allege mismanagement.”  Tejada compares it to Republicans’ ellegations of nonexistent “voter fraud,” “without a shred of evidence,” and points out, 100% correctly, that this “kind of CRAP happens all the time.”

*Tejada argues that the independent auditor will simply expand the bureaucracy for no good reason, as it’s “redundant,” “not needed,” and simply being pushed forward to “foster a distrust of government.” Even worse, Tejada charges that this is “part of the new era in Arlington – the timid and stagnant era of distrust.”

*Vihstadt responds with a bunch of (faux?) indignant nonsense, including repetition of his fallacious/wildly exaggerated/demagogic talking points from his campaign last year, about a “million-dollar bus stop,” “cost overruns…in our ill-fated aquatic center,” “an Artisphere that went sideways,” blah blah blah. Typical right-wing “crap,” as Tejada puts it, in other words. Oh, and the best line, stated without a hint of irony or self awareness, is that it’s actually Walter Tejada – not John Vihstadt himself, the master of politicization and political demagoguery – who’s “trying to make a partisan issue out of this.” That’s some serious, Trump-level chutzpah right there, I’ll grant Vihstadt that!

*Tejada responds, with appropriate dripping sarcasm, “congratulat[ing]” Vihstadt for “reciting the talking points that you’ve been using time and again to create that alleged distrust of government.” Tejada adds that this is “indeed part of [Vihstadt’s] party’s platform to create a distrust of government…whether you like it or not, that’s exactly what it is.”

*Tejada concludes that “this is part of your timid and stagnant era you’ve brought [to Arlington]…it’s not unusual for Mrs. Garvey or yourself.”

All I can say is that I wish we had a lot more Democrats like Walter Tejada, willing to call out Republicans for what they’re doing, not pussyfoot around, afraid that there might be “conflict” with Republicans (which, of course, already exists).  The problem with that latter strategy is it lets right-wing bullies and demagogues like Vihstadt seize control of the debate, win elections (even in “blue” Arlington), and create serious damage (in the case of Arlington, cancelling the street car project with no viable alternative, killing the Artisphere just when it was starting to find its footing, fostering ill will and a culture of distrust of government, etc.).

At the national and state levels, Democrats have spent far too much time NOT calling out Republicans for this “crap,” and the result has been…what? Last I checked, it didn’t work either in policy OR political terms, as Republicans now control most state legislatures, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, while instituting policies that do great harm to our country, our states, etc. The question for cities and counties like Arlington is whether they’re going to allow that same pattern to repeat itself in their jurisdictions as well.

National and Virginia News Headlines: Wednesday Morning

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Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Wednesday, July 22.

*Failing on climate (We need to start succeeding, ASAP!)

*Why The Pope Just Met With Dozens Of Mayors About Climate Change (And Human Trafficking)

*Donald Trump gives out Lindsey Graham’s cellphone number (Charming.)

*Will GOP debate be the Trump show? (“Despite RNC’s efforts, first showdown of 2016 could be focused on candidate from the angry fringe.” Make that candidates, plural – there are many others from the “angry fringe” in the Republican field, not just Trump.)

*New Video Shows Aggressive Arrest of Sandra Bland Prior to Her Death in Texas Jail (Absolutely unacceptable.)

*Conspiracy theorists have hijacked the GOP: What happens when Trump, Cruz & Carson start following Alex Jones’ lead?

*Schapiro: No-parole law an article of faith for GOP (That’s one of the core problems with today’s Republican Party, that instead of looking at empirical evidence, everything seems to be based on irrationality.)

*Editorial:  Brat undermines himself (“Brat is co-sponsor of a House bill (H.R. 604) that would restrict legal – again: legal, not illegal – immigration”)

*Bart Hinkle: GOP in the fever swamps(“Republicans have waded so far into the fever swamps that all of the candidates can spout the most lunatic nonsense and fit right in.”)

*McAuliffe calls for increased police patrols at recruiting offices (“Maj. Gen. Timothy Williams of the Virginia National Guard recommended against arming guardsmen, said a spokesman for Gov. Terry McAuliffe.”)

*Kaine: Clinton will win Virginia, narrowly (“The Virginia senator says there are no landslides in the ‘battleground-ish’ state.”)

*McAuliffe: Let’s look at tax reform (Sure, how about we tax “bads” like pollution instead of subsidizing them? How about we make our tax code more progressive – or should I say less regressive?)

*Lawmakers should fix districts in January (“The ridiculously gerrymandered boundaries of Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District will need to be fixed by lawmakers. A federal court twice has ordered as much. Rather than get it over with, Virginia Republicans appear willing to exhaust all legal options to preserve a congressional map that looks almost comical, if not for the implications of that partisan artistry.”)

*Virginia unemployment rate holds steady at 4.9 percent in June

*McAuliffe defends review of parole system

*Members of Congress grill Metro leaders over management, safety flaws (Fine, but how about also giving Metro the money it needs to upgrade its aging systems?)

*Arlington Board members bicker over new office of independent auditor (“Rancor shows simmering tensions over spending criticism that fueled elected of non-Democrat to board.”)

*Joe Morrissey’s seat in House of Delegates won by Democrat

*Richmond sheriff: One of 3 jail deaths attributed to natural causes

*NFL Bankrolls Legal Defense Of ‘Redskins’ Trademark (Why am I not surprised?)

*Nationals bullpen stumbles again in loss against Mets

*D.C. area forecast: Delightful stretch of weather straight through Saturday

PPP: Virginia Looking a Nice Shade of Progressive “Blue” on Guns, Medicaid, Gay Marriage, etc.

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Courtesy of Public Policy Polling (click on image below to “embiggen”), Virginia’s looking pretty darned progressive these days — strong majority support for background checks to purchase a gun (86%-8%), for Medicaid expansion (56%-30%), for gay marriage (only 27% say it’s a negative thing) and for paid sick days (64%-19%); and even slight plurality support (44%-42%) for “Obamacare.” 🙂

P.S. Also, “Just 35% of Virginians support the flying of the Confederate flag over government buildings, to 51% who are opposed.” The only one I disagree with my fellow Virginians on is the R**skins name, where “Only 22% of Virginians support changing the name…66% are opposed,” although “Democrats (39/41) closely divided.”

Newsweek: Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining “may be increasing cancer risk,” Appalachian Poverty

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Cross posted from Scaling Green, as I believe this is highly relevant to Virginia.

Back in 2011, we interviewed Professor Michael Hendryx, an expert on measuring the harmful impact of coal mining on public health, and now a professor of applied health science at Indiana University, Bloomington. The key takeaways from our discussion with Professor Hendryx amounted to a powerful indictment of mountaintop removal coal mining.  For instance:

Coal “mining is a loser economically, environmentally, and in terms of public health.” Hendryx has found that the heaviest coal-mining regions of Appalachia are worse off in just about every way compared to neighboring regions…In making his calculations, Hendryx looked at a range of indicators, including health, education, poverty, environmental conditions, unemployment, and mortality rates. All told, Hendryx’s found that mountaintop removal mining’s economic cost to Appalachian communities totaled roughly $42 billion per year in lost health and lives.

Hendryx also was a co-author of a seminal Harvard study which found that “the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually.” According to the study, a significant chunk of that is health care costs , with “public health burdens from coal mining cost $74.6 billion each year” in “Appalachian communities alone.”

Now, Newsweek takes a closer look at the human toll of the “Cancer Epidemic in Central Appalachia,” one that is largely caused by a lethal combination of factors largely related to mountaintop removal coal mining in the region. Here’s an excerpt from the Newsweek story, with Professor Hendryx providing particularly powerful and well-informed commentary.

The long-standing concerns over the impact of the mines on the environment and human health have intensified in recent years with the advent of mountaintop mining. Begun in the 1970s, [mountaintop removal mining – MTM], also called surface mining, escalated in the 1990s as a cheaper way to access the energy-rich bituminous coal beds lying beneath the Appalachian mountain forests. After a forest is cleared, explosives are used to blast away mountain peaks to expose seams of coal within. Debris from the blasts is deposited in the nearby valleys. Seen from above, MTM looks like brown rash splotches on a green body.

MTM is incredibly efficient. It also may be making people sick. A study of 403 counties in central Appalachia found that those with MTM have higher rates of cancers of the colon, liver, lung and cervix, as well as leukemia, compared with counties without mining. Cancer-related deaths were also more common in the MTM counties. 

Coal mine economics may be increasing cancer risk and exacerbating the region’s poverty. Wages for employees are typically high but the jobs are few, accounting for about 1 percent of all employment in Kentucky. Surface mines require less manpower, leading to a reduction in jobs, and the destruction of the landscape may be keeping other businesses away. Federal and state subsidies to the industry amount to billions of dollars. In 2008, Kentuckians paid on average more than $100 per month in taxes to the coal industry. Recent reports indicate the industry costs more than it earns and is mining beyond current demand, driving prices down. “The area needs to diversify and get away from coal as rapidly as possible if it wants to create a stronger economy,” says Hendryx.

But it won’t be easy to kill off the mining industry. Americans use more than 900 million tons of coal per year; it accounts for about 37 percent of all electric power fuel in the country. The way we use electricity-every light switch, every phone charger-has turned central Appalachia into a “sacrifice zone,” a term coined to describe Cold War nuclear fallout regions in the Soviet Union that has come to refer to areas where residents become victims of the pollution caused by an outside demand for their resources. “Mining communities are America’s sacrifice zone,” says Hendryx. Although recent reports indicate a decline in mountaintop mining, the damage already done has deeply scarred the land and its people.

In sum, mountaintop removal coal mining is harmful in just about every way: to the economy, the environment and people’s health. The sooner we transition off this dirty, dangerous stuff to clean, cheap, renewable energy the better.

National and Virginia News Headlines: Tuesday Morning

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Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, July 21.

*The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future (This should be the #1 headline in every newspaper and on every newscast in America. Why isn’t it?)

*Death of woman found hanged in Texas cell to be treated like murder probe: prosecutor (As well it should be!)

*Attacking Donald Trump seems to only make him stronger (The Republican Party is apparently full of people who thrill to Trump’s message of extremism, bigotry, intolerance, ignorance and idiocy. Who knew? Heh.)

*Trump surges to big lead in GOP presidential field

*Is Scott Walker ignorant by choice?

*The Republican poll nightmare that is Donald Trump, in four charts

*Poll: Majority of Americans Support Iran Deal Despite Skepticism

*U.S. and Cuba Reopen Long-Closed Embassies

*This GOP Presidential Candidate Actually Believes in Climate Change. But He Doesn’t Want to Fix It. (I’m trying to decide which is more evil, not “believing” in climate change or believing in it and not wanting to “overreact,” as John Kasich so idiotically says.)

*How the US Chamber of Commerce Is Helping Big Tobacco Poison the Rest of the World (Speaking of evil, I present to you…)

*Republicans fear their activist base. Democrats don’t. (Excellent article.)

*The gerrymandering jig should be up (“Both Mr. McAuliffe and Mr. Hogan are on record as backing redistricting reform to minimize political shenanigans when their state legislatures redraw electoral lines after each decennial census.”)

*Va. Republicans fight McAuliffe’s effort to study reinstating parole (So typical.)

*McAuliffe’s panel begins review of no-parole policy

*Bagby faces Lambert Tuesday in special election for Morrissey’s former seat (“Democrat Lamont Bagby faces independent candidate David M. Lambert in Tuesday’s special election in the turmoil-ridden 74th House of Delegates district, which covers parts of the city of Richmond and Henrico County and all of Charles City County.”)

*New website offers ‘one-stop shop’ on coastal resilience in Hampton Roads

*Jump in child poverty a warning bell for Virginia, advocates say

*Mark Herring weighs in on Confederate flag in Danville (“State law currently does not allow the Confederate battle flag to be removed.”)

*Editorial: Stadium debate – seize this chance for regional cooperation

*Arlington won’t be getting a new gun shop after property owner backs out (No loss there, that’s for sure.)

*Nationals beat Harvey, take first game of NL East showdown with Mets

*D.C. area forecast: Heat today, gone tomorrow with nicer rest of week ahead

Any Further Questions About the GOP, aka the “Stupid Party?”

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In short, Republican primary voters loooove them some serious immigrant bashing and other extremism, lunacy, bombastic idiocy, etc. Nope, Donald Trump is not an outlier, he epitomizes a party that also includes Ken Cuccinelli, EW Jackson, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Steve King, James “No Global Warming Cuz I Brought a Snowball Into the Capitol and Stuff” Inhofe, Louie “ISIS camp three miles south of El Paso” Gohmert, Ayn Rand-worshipping Dave Brat, Bobby “Stupid Party” Jindal, and too many other nutjobs to keep track of.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the sane, sensible Hillary Clinton’s got a huge lead for the nomination, and also a nice lead over Jeb Bush (which widens to a HUGE lead if Trump runs as an independent – pleasepleaseplease!) in the general election. Good times…if you’re a Democrat, that is. Donald Trump, please don’t go away anytime soon! 🙂

UVA Study: 11 Major Flaws in Coal Center’s Energy Analysis Relied On by Gov. McAuliffe, Legislature

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In a study released last week, energy expert Dr. William Shobe of the University of Virginia dismantles the key, state-sanctioned analysis of how Virginia should meet the requirements of the federal Clean Power Plan to reduce carbon emissions.

That analysis, produced last fall by a team led by Dr. Michael Karmis, director of the Center for Coal and Energy Research at Virginia Tech, is part of the Virginia Energy Plan and is relied upon by Gov. Terry McAuliffe and the legislature as they make decisions about the state’s energy future.

“In short, the report is almost certainly worse than no study at all because it misstates likely costs, analyzes irrelevant options, and gives short shrift to the cases that really matter,” writes Shobe.

A professor of public policy and director of the Center for Economic and Policy Studies, Dr. Shobe’s research focuses on climate change, greenhouse gas markets, and auction design. Shobe was part of the team that designed the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for nine Northeast states, a cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon emissions that has generated $1.3 billion in economic benefits and 14,000 job-years over the past three years.

“Old Boy” Selection Process



Last fall, we questioned why Dr. Karmis – who is an international consultant to the coal industry – had been chosen by the McAuliffe Administration’s Dept. of Mines, Minerals & Energy (DMME) to write a 199-page analysis of how Virginia should best meet the requirements of the federal Clean Power Plan.  By repeatedly evading my basic questions about how and why he was chosen, Karmis and DMME only heightened suspicions about what appears to be an “old boy” selection process heavily influenced by the fossil fuel industry.

But now it is clear that the process was more than unseemly: the sloppy, coal-friendly conclusions of Karmis’ report are contributing to Virginia status as an also-ran in clean energy development.

Notable problems Shobe found with Karmis’ analysis include:

  • Double counts compliance costs by about $400 million annually because the authors added together two different estimates of compliance costs.
  • Made a calculation mistake that cut the estimated benefits of emission reductions by more than 40%.
  • Used inappropriate and incomplete economic analysis in estimating total economic costs and associated job losses, inflating cost and job losses.
  • Misinterpreted, on at least two occasions, analysis provided by the EPA in the EPA’s regulatory impact analysis of its proposed rule.

(For a full list of errors, click here.)

In addition to reviewing Karmis’ analysis, Professor Shobe makes useful recommendations to ensure state agencies such as DMME, the Dept. of Environmental Quality, and the State Corporation Commission are able to properly assess studies presented to them.

An Impartial Coal Expert?

Virginia is having a critical conversation about Clean Power Plan compliance options and strategies. Citizens must ask themselves: should the Commonwealth’s policymakers continue to rely upon an energy analysis produced by coal expert Michael Karmis that we now know is utterly flawed?

Last November, I concluded a post by asking whether Dr. Karmis was too conflicted to write a document the governor and legislature would depend upon as an unbiased, informed look at how the state can best respond to the Clean Power Plan. By submitting a report with flawed methodology, basic factual errors and biased conclusions in favor of the coal industry, it seems the answer regarding Dr. Karmis’s conflicts is a resounding yes.

Scott Peterson is executive director of the  Checks and Balances Project, a national watchdog blog that seeks to hold government officials, lobbyists, and corporate management accountable to the public. Funding for C&BP comes from pro-clean energy philanthropies and donors.